Microsoft blew just about everyone away in the early hours of this morning (my time).  Natal is incredible, but the list of games that will be coming this year and next to the Xbox 360 is equalling compelling.  All other things equal, if Sony and Nintendo perform on par with what they did last year, Microsoft will have wiped the floor with them. 

Sony will no doubt show they're big hitters tomorrow.  GOW3, GT5, Uncharted 2 etc.  None of these will be surprising, none of them will help them win the conference.  For Sony too win they would have to have presented a whole bunch of genuinly incredible new titles, or something so compelling and unexpected it just cannot be denied.  Ultimately, a Sony victory at this point is highly unlikely, and even if it supposedly occured, it would be contentious and narrow.  It would also likely be based on the same sorts of things Microsoft has games-wise.  More of the same, different platform.

So if anyone is going to impress us and beat Microsoft, it is likely to be Nintendo.  The only way they will do this, is pure and simple.  Hard-core, first party games.  I want Wii Zelda.   I want SMG2.   I want Star Fox Wii.  If Sony wins E3 from this point is is likely to mean nothing of consequence to all non-Sony gamers or multiplatform gamers (like myself).  But if Nintendo wins, it will have meant gamers have had arguably their greatest E3 ever.

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Err, thread #234 on 2009 E3 Manufacturer conferrences.

Indeed.  But a new angle I feel