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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict Wii Fit yearly sales and end of life

Predictions should be in the form

 

2009 sales = 

2010 sales = 

2011 sales = 

2012 sales = 

2015 sales =

End of life sales = 

Also answer

Wii Fit + will release in the year ....

(write N/A if you don't think it will recieve a sequel)

 

You can also give for any other years you want, but you must include all the listed years.

 

I will make my predictions in a bit



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2009 sales = 10m

2010 sales = 6m

2011 sales = 1m

2012 sales = 200k

2015 sales = 100k

End of life sales = 36-7m

Now this is under the assumption that Wii Fit + actually exists and its release this christmas will either replace the old WF game or promoted as a package at retailers.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

so far i think
2009 sales = 12mln(so far it sold 5mln+ this year)

2010 sales = 9mln

2011 sales = 6mln

2012 sales = 4mln

2015 sales = 1mln

End of life sales = 47-48mln(basically wii fit will end up in about 45-50% Wii owners as long as nintendo and 3rd party publishers will support it)

Wii Fit+ may be released, but not for the wii but nintendos next console. so i say that it will be released same year when Wii 2.



Cool thread! Nice setup too.

2009 sales = 13-14M

2010 sales = 8.5M

2011 sales = 5.3M

2012 sales = 3.4M

2013 sales = 2.1M

2014 sales = 1.3M

2015 sales = 0.8M

End of life sales = 35-40M

Why I predict what I did

2009: Has sold 4.9M in 4 months. That's around 275.000 each week. It is dropping off a bit, so 225,000 for the next 4 months would be a better suggestion. That's 3.9M. Then 200K each week for 2 months equals around 1.650,000. So before November, I believe it will be at 10.5M. It sold 4M in that period in 2008, so selling 3M this year seems rather plausible. Overall for 2009: 13-14M

2010: Dropping of furhter seems likely. 150K each week (on average) for the first 10 months? I'm grabbing in the dark a bit, as it is hard to predict here. That's 6.5M. Then 2M in the holidays = 8.5M

So I believe in a 35-40% dropoff YtoY. If that continues, it will be the numbers I stated above.

My total is a bit higher than the combined of the years.



When I write Fact: in one part of the post, and opinion: (or a similar word), it's not because I can then say "my opinion can't be wrong". It is to inform what part is pure facts, and which part I try to draw a conclusion in.

Wii fit will get a sequel. It wont be in production when ever the sequel comes out.



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Diglet said:
Wii fit will get a sequel. It wont be in production when ever the sequel comes out.

 

 Really? Wii Fit is the best legged game ever. Do you think Nintendo would just stop producing it? That seems like an unnecessary big risk to me. As long as it is still selling 100K + each week, why release a sequel? If a sequel is to come, I very much doubt it would be in 2008 or 2009 (Edti!: Wow, 2008 - really? :P Meant 2009 or 2010). There may be one after that, but it would (probably) be completely different. Could they sell that with the balance board? No, that would be a massive mistake - over 20M people already own the balance board. Making it "take over" for Wii Fit 1 would be a bad idea - some could like Wii Fit 1 better. And if they include all of Wii Fit 1 in Wii Fit 2, wouldn't the Wii Fit 1 buyers feel scammed? No - Wii Fit faces a larger risk; standalone balance boards.



When I write Fact: in one part of the post, and opinion: (or a similar word), it's not because I can then say "my opinion can't be wrong". It is to inform what part is pure facts, and which part I try to draw a conclusion in.