Well there has been, since Holiday season 08, a continuous talk about Wii games not selling and Wii games going down, while the PS3 sales have stabilized and this week passed its YTD total compared to 2008.
The thing is, PS3 has been getting big games very closely since November 2008, while the Wii barely got any (Taiko, and AC are the ones).

There's no denying that PS3 is doing better than the Wii because of the SW, but the truth is, things will continue like this as long as the PS3 keeps getting more SW and more and more announcements each week. Wii hasn't got any big announcements this year, save for the Gundam game (which is multiplat with PSP) and RE:DSC.

So can the Wii really make up for all the momentum lost with the upcoming games? Can the PS3 keep the lead with its upcoming games? Let's see:


Upcoming Wii games in Japan:

Monster Hunter G + Classic Controller + MH3 Demo
Monster Hunter 3
Tales of Graces
Samurai Warriors 3
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
Dragon Quest X
Kizuna
Arc Rise Fantasia
Muramasa: Demon Blade
Little King's Story
Valhala Knights
Takt of Magic
SD Gundam G (Announced in 2009)
Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles (Announced in 2009)
Silent Hill: Shattered Dreams (Announced in 2009)
Wii Sports Resort + WiiMotionPlus
Punch Out!
Sin & Punishment 2
Deca Sports 2
PES 09


Upcoming PS3 games in Japan:

160 GB PS3 + Final Fantasy XIII demo + FFVII: ACC Blu Ray movie
Final Fantasy XIII
Final Fantasy Versus XIII
End of Eternity (Announced in 2009)
Rapture
Ni-Oh
Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 (Announced in 2009)
Atelier Rorona (Announced in 2009)
Gundam (Announced in 2009)
Quantum Theory
Tales of Vesperia (Announced in 2009)
Gran Turismo 5
God of War 3
Tekken 6
Bayonetta
Agarest Senki Zero (Announced in 2009)
Summon Night 5 (Announced in 2009)
The Last Remnant
Katamary Damarcy Tribute (Announced in 2009)
King of Fighters XII
BlazBlue (Announced in 2009)
Dinasty Warriors 5 Empires
Dead Rising 2 (Announced in 2009)
PES 2010 (Announced in 2009)

What I see is both consoles having big guns ahead, but what's really intriguing is seeing the PS3 get so many more announcements this year than the Wii did. What do you guys think? Can the PS3 keep getting most announcements therefore getting people more interested in it? Or can the Wii get more game announcements? Going by events that happened so far this year, IMO PS3 has the upper hand. Sony is doing something, things like that don't happen by themselves considering PS3's last years performances in Japan. On the other hand Nintendo isn't doing anything to keep the Wii alive there, and this unprecedented YoY drop in Wii console sales (I think it's the worst ever in gaming history) is making people wonder if the Wii has reached its potential in Japan, since not many devs are interested anymore, or at leat they aren't announcing anything, Nintendo included.

Don't take this as an attack to any side, it's just an analysis and you can help me by pointing out my mistakes.

Hopefully strong competition will mean a win for consumers in general. And it's always exciting when there is a small difference in sales as opposed to a massive one.

Yes but that's just a lot of bulk. Most of those listed on both sides will have nothing to do with anything. It's important to just trim out the actual big stuff in there and I believe we'll be left with this:

Wii

Monster Hunter G
Monster Hunter 3
Tales of Graces
Samurai Warriors 3
FFCC: The Crystal Bearers
Dragon Quest X
Wii Sports Resort

PS3

PS3/FF bundle
FFXIII
FFXIII Versus
Gran Turismo 5
Tekken 6
Dynasty Warriors 5: Empires
PES 2010

That doesn't mean the others won't have an affect but at least these we know are guaranteed to do pretty damn well there and have effects on the hardware sales at least somewhat significantly..

Personally I see it pretty much as a dead tie. Both have two big guns in Monster Hunter 3/Dragon Quest X versus FFXIII/Gran Turismo 5. Until all these start coming out they are going to sell about even and it just depends on who gets the best boost and holds subsequently after.

I know it's not confirmed but I'd add Wii Fit Plus also, that'd be a big seller..

I think DQX is too far away to be a threat to PS3 atm but I agree with Zucas' refinement

2009 looks awesome for the ps3 especially in japan

if 299$ price up get here. i see a good sales for 2009-2011

Besides the great games that will be released on both the Wii and PS3 in Japan, what could be very telling are price cuts. Especially considering there's a serious economic recession at the moment.

Oh, yeah, I just listed the best potential sellers/ hardware movers. There's a lot of other unsignificant games I didn't list, because, yeah, that would be useless.

I think, Zucas, that The Last Remnant, End of Infinity, Ni-Oh and Gundam are going to be fairly big for the PS3. As for the Wii, I agree with your list, but will not add more since the Wii is unpredictable as a SW seller. I firmly believe the Wii needs a big core game release to attract hardcore gamers. So far it had none besides Zelda, and that's too little. Games like Rune Factory, Tenchu, Fragile, SkyCrawlers, etc could have done way better if the audience was there. MH3 needs to arrive very soon, very very soon, since that's the only hope. Muramasa, ARF and Kizuna may be doomed due to the fact that there's not an audience for those games and they are all new IP¡s therefore I doubt many people will be buying Wii's to play them, but I hope I'm wrong.

@Soriku: But a constant flow of big games and a constant lack of big games (until MH3) will ensure PS3 to remain above or quite closely to the Wii.

PS3 is getting those games and it has a big core audience, much bigger than the Wii one. Wii needs a big core game, PS3 has had many already and built up a huge core audience, that's why we see its games sell really well. Wii has that big disadvantage. It's not all roses for the Wii in Japan, in fact its the worst case scenario Nintendo could have imagined after 2008 and 2007 sales.

ps3 version it's announced, but not release date, and thats the problem, there is not word in cancelation either.

last remnant was sold at 40$ price point anyway in both consoles.

games are just games to Asian people, there are good games, and bad games to them. there is not much hardcore or casual or core talk. I've always found that to be weird myself as to why people do that whole core talk thing. anyways, E3 in 2 months, I force myself to not think about it because I want it today but I think that'll pretty much sum it up for us, this is way too early to tell.