1. Thw Wii will come first this gen, to think otherwise is insane, its sold 47m to the PS3's 20m, you think the PS3 can overturn a 27m lead, nothing even remotley like that has happend in any console war, im not saying the PS3 is dead, im saying it wont finish first, it has a chance of second, but at the moment that looks unlikely, even so its not dead as its sold 20m consoles so far and i would imagine it will sell at least 40m lifetime

you didnt read all of my posts, youre saying you think 85m PS2 owners are yet to upgrade, i posted that in all likelyhood thoose 85m would buy:
Wii: 43m
360: 25m
PS3: 17m

or something around thoose figures, maybe closer between PS3 and 360, depending on price cuts and stuff

I saw that and I said I think it will break down a little differently >.>

ok, but you do know that for the PS3 to win, then it would have to breakdown something like this:

PS3: 49m
Wii: 22m
360: 14m

Where did I say the PS3 would win? I just think it will beat out the 360.

I noticed this thread and immediately clicked it in order to have a look.
The title says "System Wars!!!", freakin great.
That's three exclamation marks for God's sake! You can't beat that! Awesome
So I went on and read your opening post and you've got some seriously good points. "I got all numbers from wiki."
You got all your numbers from wiki. Cool! "Half of the wii users are new time videogame players. 50% of their sales are to mothers who want the kid friendly console." What he is saying is that half of the wii users are new time videogame players and mothers wanting a kid friendly console is 50%. Thnx for the info. You seem to know what you're talking about. I'm going to trust you here. You seem legit. btw awesome thread!
You end your post asking What does everyone think about this?

Do I really need to tell you what I think about this?

that would require a price cut imo, i cant see it happening while the PS3 is at its current price, PS2 owners will likely go for the 360 as its alot cheaper

Go look at the wiki for all the systems. Also I have an odd thing, I only count wholes. If it is money, I will give you 2 dollars not a 1.50. When talking about selling something I will generally round down to a 0 or a 5(unless its very close up) These are parts of my OCD. But the numbers are all what they say on the wiki pages.

Also no matter what you think of my numbers. The question is still valid. There are still tens of millions of people from last gen that have yet to get a console this gen. I am simply asking where everyone thinks they are going.


This is a war of numbers, not which is better. The real war.


Also tell me where you got this 15% estimate from? Because I know 1 person who has the wii besides myself who isn't a new gamer. However my 5 year old cousin has a bunch of friends who have/want the wii. Children buy far more consoles then adults do. It is true.

If it's a war of numbers then Nintendo will win.... as I said, trends don't change so easily. If it all went wrong for Nintendo starting tomorrow, and everything went well for Sony, it would take a good year or 2 before the Wii and PS3 (and probably more for DS and PSP) were selling on parity with each other weekly ..... The PS3 has no chance of actually catching up to the Wii.
And I can't even think of a scenario where anything like that woul happen.... so for making logical predictions... the PS3 doesn't even have a chance of catching the Wii in weekly sales until a good year into the next generation (by that time it will depend which can hold out longer against the new consoles)

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The 15% is purely pulled out of my beautiful behind.... based on the fact that back in mid 2007 (just over 1 and a half years ago) Nintendo's own research showed that at the time, 90% of Wii owners had owned a 6th gen home console.

So back then, a mere 10% of owners were split between a number of groups.... PC gamers, gamers who skipped 6th gen, gamers who only had handhelds previously, and finally totally new gamers.

And unless you haven't realised it, there are huge numbers of new gamers every new generation that have nothing to do with Nintendo's blue-ocean strategy, so at least some of the new gamers will likely have bought a system this gen even if Nintendo hadn't starte aiming at everybody, rather than just old gamers.

So at that time in 2007, certainly less than 5% of Wii owners would have otherwise (without the Wii available) not become gamers. And as I said, trends take time to change.... so only a fool would think since then 100% of Wii purchasers were previously non-gamers.

For the percentage to get as high as 50% of the total.... the last 1 and a half years would have had to see 66% of buyers bing previous non-gamers.... which is oddly high don't you think considering the previous 9 months it was less than 5%.
For the most part, non-gamers have not been as interested in the Wii enough to go searching for one, which is what they would have had to do with the Wii's tight supply, so the pick-up rate will be increasing as it becomes easier to obtain a Wii, but 50% is way way too high, I would argue it is not much higher than 10%, but it could possibly be as high as 15% like I said.
The majority of Wii owners is now, and will remain mostly last gens PS2 owners, because that is where everybody was last gen.... true not all of last gens PS2 owners will cross to the Wii.

Currently I would hazard a guess at something like this:

Wii userbase breakdown---

PS2 only - 45%
GC only - 20%
XB only - 2% (I think most XB fans will have gone to X360)

Multi owners - 10% (most of these will have owned PS2+GC last gen)

Last gen skipped - 10% (made up mostly of PC and handheld owners, but also some who just skipped last gen)

New gamers - 13% (probably about 1/3 of these would have bought a console this gen anyway)

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Meanwhile the PS3 userbase will have a higher percentage of past gen PS2 owners, as well as XB owners... probably lower percentage of GC owners.... higher multi owners.... and lower percentages of last gen skipped and new gamers.

And the X360 will have a much much higher percentage of XB onwers... and probably a PS2 percentage similar to the PS3.