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Forums - General - U.S. Fourth Quarter GDP Worst in 26 Years

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http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/27/news/economy/GDP_4Q08_preliminary/index.htm?postversion=2009022708

GDP slides 6.2% on slower consumer spending

A revised reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product was its worst in 26 years.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's economic slide during the last three months of 2008 was even sharper than previously estimated, with the broadest gauge of economic activity suffering its worst decline in 26 years, the government reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, which measures the output of goods and services produced in the United States, fell at an annual rate of 6.2% in the fourth quarter, adjusted for inflation, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The decline was worse than the 3.8% drop that the BEA reported in last month's "advance" reading on fourth-quarter GDP. It was the largest drop in GDP since the first quarter of 1982, when the economy suffered a 6.4% decline.

The reading was also much worse than the 5.4% decline economists surveyed Briefing.com had expected.

"Things are just terrible out there," said Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody's economy.com.

After a 0.5% decline in the third quarter, a 6.2% contraction reflects how severe the economic downturn was at the end of last year, and highlights concerns about the economy going forward.

GDP is expected to shrink another 5% in the first quarter before recovering in the second half of the year, according to Moody's economy.com.

Among the main drivers of the decline was a 4.3% drop in consumer spending, which makes up two-thirds of the nation's overall economic activity.

As consumers cut back on spending amid rising unemployment, businesses have reduced their inventories to compensate for falling revenues.

Businesses trimmed inventories by nearly $20 billion in the fourth quarter, after cutting $29.6 billion in the previous quarter. Spending on equipment and software fell at a 29% annual rate, reflecting decreased spending by businesses.

A big drop in exports also contributed to the decline, while an increase in government spending helped offset some of those declines.

Exports plummeted at a 23.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, versus an increase of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Earlier in 2008, robust demand for U.S. exports helped keep GDP in positive territory. But that demand has evaporated as the global economy continues to deteriorate.

Government expenditures and investments increased at a 6.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 13.8% increase in the third quarter.

The BEA will report its final reading on fourth-quarter GDP on March 26.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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I look at this in an optimistic fashion. Many people can start great successes and make something of themselves with start-ups that have the potential to squeeze through the cracks and hit the jackpot. Of course the situation with loss of credit is bad but it is not the end of the world. Give ppl a reason to look up, not to look down in despair. Once you have admitted defeat, you have lost.



This happens when you fashion a society around materialistic desires. Hopefully Americans realize that their rampant desire for useless things isn't really going to benefit them in the long run.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
This happens when you fashion a society around materialistic desires. Hopefully Americans realize that their rampant desire for useless things isn't really going to benefit them in the long run.

This cannot change in a capitalist society, msb.  People will pay for stuff (including games) and keep living their own good lives according to what they think the good life is.

 



Doesn't change the fact that when you use debt to accumulate the goods, it introduces artificial ideas of how good the economy is.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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mrstickball said:
Doesn't change the fact that when you use debt to accumulate the goods, it introduces artificial ideas of how good the economy is.

You mean like maxing out CCs @ holidays to pay for goods that make the economy seem good?  That is nation vs. personal debt which is not the same thing.



halo, either kind of debt is not good, and causes major issues in the country.

Too much personal debt, especially among those that can't actually deal with it is causing the banks to collapse, as their debtors cannot pay back what they've borrowed (as they've borrowed too much).

Too much national debt causes the govt. to owe money to foreigners, build up other economies, and pass the burdens onto the consumer by raising taxes. According to Obama's budget, the tax burden on the wealthy may go back to FDR-esque levels. I don't think that's really going to help us.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
halo, either kind of debt is not good, and causes major issues in the country.

Too much personal debt, especially among those that can't actually deal with it is causing the banks to collapse, as their debtors cannot pay back what they've borrowed (as they've borrowed too much).

Too much national debt causes the govt. to owe money to foreigners, build up other economies, and pass the burdens onto the consumer by raising taxes. According to Obama's budget, the tax burden on the wealthy may go back to FDR-esque levels. I don't think that's really going to help us.

Well at the lending level then yes they are interconnected.  However, I don't think gov't should meddle in the affairs on free-market banking enterprises.  They do anyway but it is just to good to let go with a nice lobbying bonus and all...

 

Anyway, what would you do with the budget.  It is $3.6 trillion and I would like to hear your thoughts on it.

 



No, the government shouldn't meddle in the affairs of lending institutes as much as they have. It's caused most of this mess in the first place - artificially inflating home ownership rates, only for us to crash back down when people couldn't finance what they couldn't eventually afford.

The $3.6t budget is very irresponsible. You can't leverage THAT much of the country's GDP to the government. It seems that the irresponsibility with Bush (leveraging wars during recessions) is only being multiplied by Obama (spending even more that we don't have). Very fusterating.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
No, the government shouldn't meddle in the affairs of lending institutes as much as they have. It's caused most of this mess in the first place - artificially inflating home ownership rates, only for us to crash back down when people couldn't finance what they couldn't eventually afford.

The $3.6t budget is very irresponsible. You can't leverage THAT much of the country's GDP to the government. It seems that the irresponsibility with Bush (leveraging wars during recessions) is only being multiplied by Obama (spending even more that we don't have). Very fusterating.

Yeah.  Many will point to Pres. Bush's last Fed Budget of 3.10 trillion as a way to point fingers but in reality we all need to trim the excesses and go back to basics.