Is there a point at which there are enough of a particular handheld sold, that it adds a great value to the handheld for future customers, spurring greater growth?

What I mean is this: the console is common enough that you're likely to have enough friends/meet enough people to play local multiplayer with people often enough, to make it a very good reason to own the console. For example, when I was in University alot of us had DS's, and some had Mario Kart. Because people were often playing Mario Kart, more people bought it and also more people bought DS's.

I think a similar thing may have happened in Japan with the PSP, especially when you consider that the three top selling games on PSP in Japan are Monster Hunter, Monster Hunter and Monster Hunter(an extremely popular multiplayer game that spurred growth in the system).

Now that I'm not in University, alot less people around me have DS's. So there's not as much reason for the people I know to buy one. The rate of DS's per capita is also much lower than DS's or probably even PSP's in Japan.

Am I on to something? Could there be a point where there are enough DS's in Europe and the US that it spurs Japan-like growth in the system? A year after DS released in Japan 1 in 20 people owned the system. Now it's closer to 1 in 4. Here in Europe we're only reaching the 1 in 20 point now, and in the US it's probably a bit less than 1 in 10.

The uptick for the PSP in Japan also started when 1 in 20 people had the system, and it's risen to 1 in 10 since then.

Just thought I'd add one thing (I'm going to give a full response later)

The DS penetration rate in Europe may be 1/20, but in western europe it is far higher.

UK = 60M

Germany = 80M

Spain = 45M

France = 60M

Italy = 60M

Scandinavia = 18M

Total: ~ 350M

Total for DS: 30823K = 30.8M

That's a total of ~ 9%

PsP is at around 12-12.5M, which is around 3.5%

In Americas, the rate is about the same.

North America (Canada + US) = 335M. They're about 95% of americas. So the pentration rate for DS is at around 9.5%

PsP is at 3.2%

So just pointing that out: Handhelds have the same penetration rate in Western Europe as in Americas.

It doesn't have a lot to do with your post though

Ok, well I was just talking about the whole of Europe for simplicity, such that I didn't have to work out numbers for eastern and western Europe.

It looks like it might already be happening in Europe.... 200k every week in slow periods is no joke.

Of course Japan exploded earlier and (penetration rate-wise) far higher.

This graph amazes me every time I see it:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=DS&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=GBA&reg3=Japan&weeks=312
As you can see, at the current point in the DS's life... the PS2 was the previous fastest selling machine ever in Japan, and GBA is 2nd (and also the previous fastest handheld) but the DS obliterated them... the SNES is the 3rd fastest system if you want to change one to that too btw.
for every 5 people in Japan there is 1 DS... of course many will have multiple DSs so it won't quite be 1 in 5 people own a DS, but it is certainly more than 1 in 10 people own at least 1 DS.

The UK is by a decent margin the next best, which is about 15% or 1 DS for every 7. (though again, multiple owners probably mean it's nearer 1 in 13 or 14 people owning DS.... and I am not even one of them)
Here is the UK graph... where before DS it was PS2 being the fastest again (although there is a lack of old data I doubt SNES or PS1 were faster than PS2)
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=DS&reg1=UK&cons2=PS2&reg2=UK&cons3=Wii&reg3=UK&weeks=312
In the UK it looks like there will be a new contender with the Wii, which is tracking way above eve the DS at it's point in life.


I think the continually increasing gradient you see for the UK is showing what you are saying... mor people are buying DSs because more people have them, like a snowball effect.
As seen with Japan, it can't be a neverending process because of population limitations.