Ok, ya there is a million KZ2 threads out there, but I had not made any so why not. Also its not like there are any other games coming out in the next 45 days worth discussing. lol.
Ok, so ya we hear the word flop thrown around alot, most of the time it is too early or undeserved altogether. And usually if a game really is a flop, fanboys change what the expections were for the game after the fact (before LBP many, not all, were proclaiming that LBP would sell 5-8 million, now, its sales are "great". Personally I think LBPs sales are fine, and people were put too much hope into it thus they were going to be let down no matter what).
So IF KZ2 does ____ at what point is it not a Flop, I am going to say that it has to sell over 1.5 million to no be a flop, that game has like the biggest budget ever, and 1.5 million is a lock.... So pretty much it wont flop unless it turns out to be really flawed... Which I doupt, because them we would have just seen it pushed back til cmas (why rush for a Febuary launch)
So ya, IF it sold 1.5 million or less it would be a flop, but fat chance that happens.
Ok, so what would be good? I think maybe 2.5 million is the bare minimun this game will need to sell to be a "success". Between 1.5 and 2.5 million I would say it is not a flop, but with all time and energy Sony put towards it, I am sure they are hoping for more.
Great sales? Hmm, 3.5 million- I think if KZ2 sells 3.5 million that would be enough for Fanboys to brag about. I really think this game can do this, but it really depends on reviews. If it get 92 meta, it is pretty much a lock for 3.5 million. I think it can get 92, so I think it can sell 3.5 mil, in fact that is about where I am predicting it.
I am gonna say anything over 4 million on the PS3's userbase is a runaway hit especially for a game this is gonna seem to many like a New IP (KZ1 was not exactly a smashing hit...)
I would put a cap on this game at 5.5 million, I do not think it will get close to that, but in my mind there is no way it sell more. The PS3 is not the shooter box, but this game has a chance to be visually groundbreaking, so maybe it has a shot to be a smashing hit, but I would refrain from calling it a Halo killer.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut