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Forums - Sony - Nikkei: Sony expected to post $1.12 billion loss

irstupid said:
Bboid said:
NJ5 said:
Bboid said:

I'm wondering how similar Japan based electronics companies will perform this quarter.  This could be a bad sign for a large portion of the consumer electronics based sector.  Tech crash 09 anyone?

Probably pretty bad as well. I remember news about Panasonic drastically cutting their forecasts too.

Korean companies (Samsung, LG) will probably do OK for the time being due to the weak Won.

 

 

 

At one point I had heard about Samsung possibly having a far worse holiday season than anticipated.  I think the serious global fall in demand is crushing just about everyone.  But as you said, the weak Won at least would keep them in the black.

 

As for comparing Sony to Nintendo, Microsoft and Apple, it may be hard to directly compare performance of the companies as a whole as they generally perform in different sectors of the technology/electronics market.  They do have directly competeing divisions within each company though.  The real "dagger" for Sony if you compare each company as a whole is they don't have a "stand-out" product that separates them from the competition that is readily adopted by many.  Blu-ray is a leader for Sony but despite slightly higher than anticipated adoption it can't compare to other companies having products like the Ipod, Wii, and Windows.  Sony's stand-out premium TV line is split with their partner Samsung which again is split with value LCD TV's and Plasmas TV's.  The TV market is quite segmented to perform abnormally strongly in.

 

So what your saying is that Sony has nothing unique and all their products/devisions make stuff that has a ton of substitutes and in Sony's case typically a lot cheaper.  To me that sounds like they need to change something big in their company or they will be in trouble, which is sounds like they are in trouble.  So i guess it isn't just me thinking.

 

That is not what I said at all.  Sony doesn't make cheap alternatives, they generally have a hand in the premium based market.  They just do not have a individual, unique product that stands out against the same competing products.

 

Example that is most obvious:

Sony makes MP3 players

Microsoft makes MP3 players

Creative Makes MP3 players

Apple makes MP3 players

 

Now of those 4 listed, which manufacturer has a stand-out product that commands a majority of the market share? 

 

If you apply that to Sony's products they don't perform in the market as well.  A good portion of this failure could be attributed to Sony's piss poor marketing department.  The majority of market leaders have phenominal marketing for their unique products, like Apple's Ipod and Nintendo's Wii.  What does Sony have?  PS3 marketing is bad, Blu-Ray marketing is often after the fact marketing for other products and their TV line is promoted by Peyton Manning who annoy's the piss out of 99% of American men who envy him.



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Bboid said:

 

 

At one point I had heard about Samsung possibly having a far worse holiday season than anticipated.  I think the serious global fall in demand is crushing just about everyone.  But as you said, the weak Won at least would keep them in the black.

 

As for comparing Sony to Nintendo, Microsoft and Apple, it may be hard to directly compare performance of the companies as a whole as they generally perform in different sectors of the technology/electronics market.  They do have directly competeing divisions within each company though.  The real "dagger" for Sony if you compare each company as a whole is they don't have a "stand-out" product that separates them from the competition that is readily adopted by many.  Blu-ray is a leader for Sony but despite slightly higher than anticipated adoption it can't compare to other companies having products like the Ipod, Wii, and Windows.  Sony's stand-out premium TV line is split with their partner Samsung which again is split with value LCD TV's and Plasmas TV's.  The TV market is quite segmented to perform abnormally strongly in.

I think the term used to describe this is cash cow.



FishyJoe said:
Bboid said:

 

 

At one point I had heard about Samsung possibly having a far worse holiday season than anticipated.  I think the serious global fall in demand is crushing just about everyone.  But as you said, the weak Won at least would keep them in the black.

 

As for comparing Sony to Nintendo, Microsoft and Apple, it may be hard to directly compare performance of the companies as a whole as they generally perform in different sectors of the technology/electronics market.  They do have directly competeing divisions within each company though.  The real "dagger" for Sony if you compare each company as a whole is they don't have a "stand-out" product that separates them from the competition that is readily adopted by many.  Blu-ray is a leader for Sony but despite slightly higher than anticipated adoption it can't compare to other companies having products like the Ipod, Wii, and Windows.  Sony's stand-out premium TV line is split with their partner Samsung which again is split with value LCD TV's and Plasmas TV's.  The TV market is quite segmented to perform abnormally strongly in.

I think the term used to describe this is cash cow.

 

100% correct good sir.  Heck, Nintendo has 2!



Huh? did you read my post wrong. That is what I said.

Sony has no Unique product that isn't easily substituted with another. And the substitutes are all cheaper. (It is usually assumed cheaper means less quality) Their only product that really can be unique (the PS3 due to exclusive games) is not doing too good right now.

The rest like TV's, MP3 Players, or what else you say are either not the cool thing (Ipod) or are too expensive for people in this recession.



Looking at the wider picture now...

While a lot of the things going bad for Sony are out of its control (exchange rates, recession), Sony hasn't been a robust or well managed company for years.

Besides the already mentioned lack of cash cows, they have been accepting low profit margins, high debt and a low cash reserve (for their size), for the sake of expansion and risky investments (PS3, Blu-Ray). They almost only have premium products, and they keep a financial division around which invests in the stock market, having just the same weaknesses as their other divisions. Where was their margin of safety?

Granted, a lot of other companies are suffering too, but many do have a bigger safety margin. Sony will be forced to restructure a lot in a short-term period, and I sincerely can't imagine what they'll do to turn the company around. All I know is it will have to be big.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

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While I'm not an expert on Sony's history, there are many similarities between Sony's rise and unseating of many of the most important electronics manufacturers of the time and the companies that are currently rising and unseating Sony ...

Lots of companies have faced similar problems in the past, and if Sony can redefine their position in the market like Apple, Nintendo and IBM have they may become far more successful than they ever were.



NJ5 said:

Looking at the wider picture now...

While a lot of the things going bad for Sony are out of its control (exchange rates, recession), Sony hasn't been a robust or well managed company for years.

Besides the already mentioned lack of cash cows, they have been accepting low profit margins, high debt and a low cash reserve (for their size), for the sake of expansion and risky investments (PS3, Blu-Ray). They almost only have premium products, and they keep a financial division around which invests in the stock market, having just the same weaknesses as their other divisions. Where was their margin of safety?

Granted, a lot of other companies are suffering too, but many do have a bigger safety margin. Sony will be forced to restructure a lot in a short-term period, and I sincerely can't imagine what they'll do to turn the company around. All I know is it will have to be big.

 

A lot of companies have been no different in the good times imo.

We are seen a lot of evidence of this in Ireland recently where our own economy is  going belly up.

 



 

 

 

 

"Bash Sony"...some people are so stupid...THIS IS REALITY, NOT FANBOY LOGIC...sony is bleeding money, but when you point out reality, you're bashing sony...lol...talk about denial.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

NJ5 said:

.. and they keep a financial division around which invests in the stock market..

I'd expect this division alone to run Sony into negative numbers, I was actually thinking of even bigger losses than $1b due to all of Sony's "non-productive" departments. Games and Movies should be ok, all the rest is probably problematic in these times..

 



drkohler said:
NJ5 said:

.. and they keep a financial division around which invests in the stock market..

I'd expect this division alone to run Sony into negative numbers, I was actually thinking of even bigger losses than $1b due to all of Sony's "non-productive" departments. Games and Movies should be ok, all the rest is probably problematic in these times..

 

I don't think the financial division will have that big an impact. Look at Sony's previous forecast revision:

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/viewer/08revision/slide/07_slide.html

The stock market's decline only accounts for 22% of the revision.

I'd say Games could perhaps be profitable in the medium term with better exchange rates, the only problem is the Catch 22 between not cutting prices and not selling many PS3s, which will make it harder to counter the decline in PS2/PSP software sales. The Electronics division will probably be doing even worse due to low demand of course.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957