I think next week we'll see 360 sales at least in the 60,000+ Range with Madden out and a full week of the price drop.

Do you expect oblivion to be for the 3rd time in row in the top 50 of weekly sales in japan ?

I think it might be possible because that means the game would have a 50% drop. 

It's real doubtful that Oblivion would stay in the top-50 for any chart.

*however* I do think it stands a good chance of winding up with 5,000-6,000 units this week. That'd be real good, considering that would mean Oblivion's third week was comparible to Trusty Bell's second week, and would guarentee 85,000 units LTD at a minimum.

Software was down about 20% - but lets take the facts into consideration:
NCAA 08 is still dropping fairly bad, since it was incredibly frontloaded (lost 25k week over week), NASCAR 08 (13k week over week), and All-Pro Football (4k). Those 3 new(er) titles along accounted for 100% of the software sales drop.

So basically, from my standpoint/view, the price drop basically allowed older software to stagnate and go unchanged, rather than the -20% pattern that it has week over week.

Again, with Madden 08 launching, and already blazing up the GamerTag charts (in 24 hours, MGC had Madden 08 in the top 5, and almost in #3). It's theoretically possible the X360 will have sales anywhere from 60,000 to 75,000 for the week, and a further increase in older software sales, and smaller drops for the 3 major ones that dropped (NCAA, Nascar and APF2k8).

The 360 should see a boost from 52K this week to perhaps 70K with the price drop. Perhaps it could even beat the Wii if people opted for a 360 over a Wii.....I can dream can't I lol.

Updated. Also my major finding about Blue Dragon's actual sellthrough rate.

I still don't think Madden is a system seller but we'll see soon enough.

You mentioned that Madden is as big as a main series FF game, but Madden gets released on absolutely everything, main FF game gets released on one platform.

Still one of the biggest selling franchises in North America and it will sell on every system.

Right, and I agree.

But I think Madden is a quasi-system seller - not in the likes of a system exclusive, but still: when the lead platform for a given game WILL sell 2m+ copies, don't you think just a few people will buy the system for that game, if they know it's the definitive version + the other games?

I'm not saying it'd do alot - maybe 2,500-5,000 units, but that, with the full week of a price drop, might be able to boost sales quite a bit. Not only this, with Bioshock leaked this week, maybe we could see a very, very small h/w increase (or even SW numbers?) for Bioshock..

?