Well, again it is a Sony board so honest discussion of the Wii should be allowed here.  And I don't mean what Wii fans think is honest discussion of the Wii which is that the Wii is infallible, the greatest game console of all time  and that there ever will be amen,  the most powerful console of all time regardless of the fact that it is only marginally technologically superior to the original xbox under the hood simply because it has a wiimote, that it will sell millions of consoles until the end of time, and that any Wii game no matter what its review score is better than any other game ever released no matter what its review score.

I believe that the XBox 360 has a better chance of lasting 10 years than PS3.
However I believe XBox 360 will last for 7 years and PS3 will last only 6 years. By 2013 both XBox 360 and PS3 will have finished and will make way for the PS4 and XBox 720 which will be in their second or third years.
Out with the old in with the new. Old products are always replaced by new products. The average console lifespan is around 5 or 6 years.

       Actually, I wasn't aware of the first point you make in this post.  However, still I don't see the 360 continuing on as it is for much longer and certainly not past the release of  Gears 3 on the next machine.  I did say I expected it to be a home for third-party multi-console games after the release of the Nextbox, but with the PS3 getting exclusives from Naughty Dog, Insomniac, Sucker Punch, Level 5, and Square and most of  MS's next wave of exclusives being on their next machine in an attempt to build up its marketshare; I really don't see the 360 selling that many consoles without the exclusives.  About 50 million tops.  I can see certain companies like Rare maybe making games for the 360 after the release of the next one (kind of like Megaman games on the nes after the release of the snes), but I don't expect that Viva Pinata 3 and the like are going to sell tens of millions of new 360 consoles. Look at the sales numbers for most 360 exclusives other than Halo 3, Gears I and II, Fable 2, and Forza 2 they haven't been that spectacular.  And, I don't expect that more than for Crackdown, Lost Odyssey, Ninja Gaiden 2, and Too Human for Alan Wake and some of the other announced new games.

      Well if they go with the average that puts the Nextbox at 2010 with Gears 3 as I predict, and the PS4 in 2012 which I also predicted unless as I also think a possibility the PS3 lasts until the Wii HD (which the PS3 will most likely be technologically superior to) is replaced by the Super Wii or Wii Advance in 2014 which would give the PS3 eight years on the market with 4 peak years yet to come.  Very much going along with the op's original post and much closer to the ten year plan that many have tried to ridicule for so long.

1. Report me if you think I should be banned for my statements. If not, stop commenting about it without any reason.

2. This is one for your typical assumptions out of nowhere. Just because some games with a four aren't selling well it doesn't mean they can't. Nobody stopped the MGS series from getting a fourth installment, and I won't even start talking about franchises that are seeing their tenth installment are have already seen. I really can't understand how you can think that a series is over after it has seen three games.

3. What makes them want that? You will see that next gen, the companies are trying to do more things like Nintendo, and especially, no console will be released for more than $350 next gen. This is my assumption, but I think it's closer to reality than yours.

4. Was the Sega Saturn the follower of a market leader? It didn't work out for the PS3, but the PS3 had about the same release date as the Wii, so this wasn't the problem.

5. Microsoft released the 360 early because the XBox wasn't going anywhere, they had no chance against Sony who is their main interest. Now, they are besting Sony and making money, and the 360 is getting good support from third parties, so while Nintendo is uncatchable, they are still in a good position and have no interest in ending this gen early.
Remember, their goal isn't really to win the gen, but to prevent Sony from becoming big in Microsofts businesses. Apart from making profits of course, which is every company's highest goal.

     I guess we'll see or not see at GDC 2009 or 2010.  Until then I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Arguing about it all day won't resolve the issue.

Sounds fair to me. Just don't try to build up complex theories about the fact that it happens, then I'm fine.

@ BTF, I barely understood that, try not to do a run-on sentence lol.

      Tell it to William Faulkner.

We will see and you should be prepared to be very VERY wrong, in fact I've only ever noticed you on this forum today and already I think you've been wrong with every single post I've seen. I guess at least you're consistent.

The only console that Microsoft is going to announce in the next 6-9 months is a Valhalla based 360 Slim, which already exists and is being tested now.

Microsoft have seen how an underpowered console can dominate the market with a cheap price and popular software, so why on EARTH would they follow the failed PS3 model and release a super expensive over powered console at a time when their current console is making them good money? It makes ZERO sense, NONE at all!!! I certainly hope you aren't involved in running a business, because it isn't going to end well for you.