What history are you referring to?  Halo 3 was two years after the 360 launch, and Halo was not a known franchise at the Xbox launch. 

Why do you say that 2010 is the preferred launch year?  All I can concentrate on is Arthur C. Clarke references.

      Yes, but Resistance II and LBP are no God of War,  Gran Turismo, and at least two exclusive Final Fantasy games.  Uncharted has already proven that it is a series that can sell multiple millions of units and MGS 4 shows that exclusive games in established franchises can have good sales on the PS3.  MGS 4 has still sold more units than Gears II.  Final Fantasy XIII will move an additional 1 to 2 million PS3 units in Japan at launch and so will FF Versus XIII.  Plus, the PS3 is outselling the 360 by 3 times as many units in Japan as the 360 during this holiday season a trend which will continue for the rest of this gen and at the very least provide for an adequately long life for the PS3 due to favorable reception in the Asian market.

in the 2009.

      Actually, Halo was a very well known franchise at its launch.  The same issue of Next Generation magazine which had the announcement of the original xbox console also had an article that listed The Top 25 Games that would have the potential to be the next big franchises in gaming and Halo was listed prominently.  This was when Halo was still thought to be a PC game and no one had any idea that it was going to be an xbox game.

     Because of Gears of War 3.  Gears 2 launched 2 years after the original, so if you expect there to be two years between Gears 2 and 3, then you would expect Gears 3 to come out in November of 2010.  However, if MS were to follow a Halo 3 type pattern for the next xbox, then Gears 3 could be coming out in 2011 with the next xbox launching a year earlier as they did with the 360 so that it could gain a bit of marketshare with some new franchises while they tried to get the price down to a more consumer friendly one with the release of Halo 3 in 2007.  I don't think Gears 3 will be coming out as late as 2012 because the three years between the three Halo games gave Gears enough time to come along and still a bit of that series thunder equally, I don't I expect Gears 4 to be the big launch game of the NextBox because there is traditionally a bit of burnout in series when they go beyond trilogy format.  Examples of this burnout include Star Wars movies past the third one, original Batman series movies past the third one,  and in gaming Splinter Cell and Tomb Raider both lost a bit of momentum trying to extend their series past three games.  Three is still the magic number for franchise length across most media. 

LOL only on here, seriously some of you kids need to pay more attention in school. Do us all a favor and take business class or two.

Basic math and logic.

20 million in 2 years, at worst a 5 year life cycle = ???? (end of thread)

Not according to VG Chartz. 

It's not outselling the 360 as much as it used to, but more importantly, beating the 360 in Japan is like winning the Special Olympics. 

The PS3 is a decent 2nd place in Japan -- it might end up with sales in Japan similar to the N64 (5.55m) -- but is that really as good as you're saying?  Second place in Japan is usually WAY second.

      Here is some basic math:  The PS3 solidly winning the HD console wars holiday season of 2008 in Japan over the 360 by a wide margin and finishing up the year with a 50 million to 13 million edge over the 360 in that territory in 2008's last week.

     Basically my original prediction made on the Play Magazine forums in 2006 prior to the release of the PS3 is still holding up.  Basically that there will be a fractured video game industry in the future instead of the unified one that we have known since Nintendo and the Japanese consoles rose to prominence during the 8 and 16 bit eras if the 360 turns out to be highly successful.  Basically the 360 will be a clear cut winner in the HD wars in the Americas, the PS3 will be the clear winner between the hd consoles in Japan (not counting a Wii HD), and HD sales will basically be split between the PS3 and 360 in Asia and Europe and as each one gains a significant price cut it will enter a time when it has the most momentum in others which is bad if you're more a fan of Japanese games than Western style games and live in the US but will probably not be as noticeable in the European markets.  If you are a big fan of Japanese style games living in the West, Nintendo will still be giving you a good taste of Japanese games if you live in the West in years to come but might not always be uncensored or controversial Japanese games (and hopefully they will move beyond the catering to the casuals thing in years to come much as early DS sales were driven by Brain  Training and Nintendogs but now they have great Square games like The World Ends with You).   

     It will do much better in Japan than the N64.  That is a given considering that the PS3 is going to have two exclusive Final Fantasies in that territory while the N64 didn't even have one.

yes its gonna sell 40 million its a matter of when not if.

And I felt I lowballed all my predictions..