There is very large overlap in library but I don't think you can really fairly say "essentially the same". 

Anyway, there are some things that are different, like the 360 is a year older, has already dropped into mass market price (except the Elite), the PS3 is a Blu-ray player (not a huge factor but no doubt has some impact), etc. 

Keep in mind that Dodece is going beyond just saying that the 360 will win; he's essentially saying that the PS3 is already practically at its peak.  After this, next year maybe the same or maybe less, and then down down down.  I'm not convinced. 

1. Bungie will still be involved with the development, they are still at least partially owned by Microsoft afterall (Still no answer on the majority vs minority question) and it is their baby. Furthermore its unlikely Microsoft will release anything less than an excellent game as a sequel, they will throw a game out before releasing a bad one most likely.

2. Epic are what you could call loose 2nd party or close third party developers. They own the I.P and the contract is only for 2 games, not 3. So at this point they can certainly be classified as third party unless evidence indicates otherwise.

3. By that same logic you could say the same about Nintendo or Sony. Furthermore when you're dealing in circumstance where the possibilities are minute it is safe to say that something is disproved. There is absolutely no evidence that Microsoft are nearing the release of a console, considering they have to get the involvement of developers its not usually a well kept secret.

4. $300 Core/$400 Premium.

5. Doesn't have to, Microsoft doesn't have to lose money on the 360 to sell a comfortable number of systems.

^ Well, not disproved, but it's discredited so much that no one should talk about it as a possibility, let alone probability.

     Microsoft is much more likely to try to release a new system with an IP like Gears 3 than Forza.  I'm sure Epic and Microsoft won't have much trouble reaching an agreement on a third game in the series considering the first one has already sold 5 million copies and the second one is heading towards that number as well.  Forza has only sold a little over 4 million copies and it won't reach 5 million before Gears II does even though it was released quit a bit longer ago.

     There is evidence that Microsoft has been in the planning stages of the next xbox for quite a while.  In '08 more than a couple of hints were released about it and even the announcement that one of its games was already in development.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3165235

http://gizmodo.com/5063680/next-xbox-will-upgrade-xbox-360-games-to-look-amazing-use-new-controller-features

The important question tho, will the next M$ console use blueray? lol

      If they want it to be able to do well in all areas of the US, for example, including rural areas where 512k at $30.00 a month is about the most that people can afford to pay for an internet connection then it will have to use another type of affordable storage medium than just streaming downloads unless file sizes in general for all types of media files suddenly become smaller instead of larger in the next gen.

Mostlikely not, MS is very stubborn.  They want it their way and that's just how it is. 

They could keep DVDs, but I don't really think they would do that even.  They're wanting to go full head with a Download service, but for some people that just wouldn't work. 

I would absolutely hate to download my games.  I just want to pop it in and start playing, that's how I feel, plus I like knowing have my collection on my shelf.  The only way I could see it do any good is if they somehow implented it to download almost instantly or just in a few minutes (say 20-30 minutes, maybe even an hour).

It's really hard to say at this point, we can only sit in speculation.

In all, I wouldn't completely rule out the use of BluRay, but I mark it as highly doubtful.

As a movie player, I would agree. Highly unlikely, but as a slightly modified storage format? Why not.

It would be more difficult to copy, most of the licence costs and restrictions for BluRay would not apply but the games could be produced by every standard BluRay Production line.

      I think that at about the same time you see blu-ray used as a storage medium on a MS console that you will see Halo I, II, and III and maybe Fable or Gears appear on a Playstation console.  It will probably use that new type of HD dics that was written about on these forums a couple of weeks ago.

Well theres two lines of thought, the one is, having the all singing all dancing entertainment system, in which case people might gripe if it didnt have a drive that was at least blueray compatible for watching their movies (obviously im taking the assumption that blueray will take dvd's mantle in 5 or so years time) .

Then theres the games themselves, which as a previous poster said, they dont want to download games, rather something they can grab hold of, which may well be the case for alot of people - especially with the potential sizes involved, so blueray could suit that need also.

Im just thinking, if something like that were to play out then Sony would be in the unusual position of being a rival to M$, whilst at the same time making some $$ from every 'Xbox 720' sold, as the own the rights to blueray do they not?