I would say 75% of the HD market would suffice. I doubt that will happen though.

Wait scottie... Why would there be so many PS3/Wii and 360/Wii games?

I was thinking the same thing.

Big game franchises ie FF made in Japan will never become exclusive to the 360, I know Japan is not as important as it used to be but for such games it is still the most important region. Sure games made in the West can be exclusive to the 360 but not big Japanese games.

Thinking about it more and more exclusives seem very unlikely now, just dont see them happening. All I want is a good PS3 version which thankfully is finally happening, no more half assed bug ridden ports.

I'm predicting some multiplats will skip the PS3 because it has a lower userbase
and many sequels to Japan only PS2 will likely skip the 360.


But maybe 10 and 10 is still too high

I think it is somewhat of a myth, or more to the point a hyperbole. Porting is relatively inexpensive as compared to developing a new game. That however does not mean there are not serious costs. Unless your building off a dedicated cross platform engine. Either built internally, or licensed from a third party. You will still have to fund a team for months. That means additional employees or longer periods during releases. Either way serious cash is sacrificed to port a title. Were that not the case almost every single game ever created would be ported to all possible platforms. Since that does not happen we must assume that a certain sales threshold must be reached to offset lost productivity. Such as your next game coming to market a few months later.

To be frank I think Microsoft has already passed this particular threshold. Not based upon sales margin, attach rate, or a market dominance. Their console enjoys common architecture with the PC market, and thus more developers are already considering console ports of their titles from the offset. The 360 already enjoys more exclusives then the PS3 due to this virtue. The more consoles Microsoft sells the more attractive their platform will be to what were once dedicated PC developers.

I think the 360 is already viable as an exclusive format. Regardless of sales margins due to its attach rate alone. Developers have to be looking at their time tables, and realize that the stretching due to the PS3 has probably become counterproductive. The delays only ensure fewer releases, and with the attach rate on the 360. More releases on the 360 means more money then can be generated by porting. This would be different if the PS3 had a higher attach rate, or a higher install base, but that is not the case.

The margin could only help the PS3, but it does not affect the 360. Be it eight million or twenty million. I want to be even handed, but I cannot rationally see how porting at the loss of volume plays to the favor of developers especially smaller developers. Big developers with established franchises can do it easily. They already push their volume regardless, and the name recognition ensures more then enough sales to cover costs. However for smaller developers it just isn't the case.

I don't expect to see major defections, but then again Microsoft also covets the other end of the spectrum. They will drop the coin for an established franchise being exclusive. That is where the sales margin really shines. With enough difference, and with a contract out on the table. Microsoft could secure the highly sought after exclusives. That will not happen if Sony can maintain its attach rate, and keep the margin under twelve million. Past those and it will be open hunting for Microsoft.

Fix'd. Surprise surprise, market share isn't even close to everything.

OT: Well, no actually. Many(Or is it just Capcom?) companies have stated they are going to be doing most things multiplat from now on...but for my part, I REALLLLLY hope for some PS3 exclusives. I'm having buyer's remorse right now and I've only owned one for 1 week.

PLEASE make KH3, Condemned 3, BoF5(Dragons quarter sucked) and whatever Tales game is after the Wii version PS3 exclusives>_<

@ shadowblind. Link or it didn't happen

GOW 3, GT5, Versus, KZ2 not good enough reasons? >_<

Lol...there is so much wong with this breakdown but I've bolded the most problematic...

Im assuming you mean 3rd party titles as all 3 systems will get exclusice first and second party support that should be mostly equal.

I don't see any ps3/Wii exclusive titles what so ever. And Wii360 ones will be 3-5 a year maybe. These are the games that were made with lesser systems in mind and then ported over to 360...Crash Bandicoot comes to mind.

also PS360 3rd party exclusives will outnumber the nuber of wii exclusives for atleast another few years. Unless you count shovelware...

About the topic...I do think that 360 will get support from smaller devs a lot more. Its ease to program as well as the larger userbase will make it easier for the smaller publishers to make 360 only games. I doubt the big studios will do it unless there is a 20 million gap between consoles.