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Forums - Sales Discussion - Future Wii Sales

I've seen many people discuss the Wii outselling the PS2 or atleast reaching 100 million units sold. Could someone show me a reason as to why it'll reach that. I'm not doubting it, I'd just like to see some numbers.



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http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=DS&reg3=All&weeks=156

It's outpacing the PS2. And if Nintendo decides to keep the Wii alive during the next generation (unlike the Gamecube, which died instantly), it's a definite it'll outsell the PS2.



The bottom line is that the Wii is breaking all sorts of sales records that the PS2 once held.



http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=DS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&weeks=156



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Well only time will tell I suppose. Nobody knows nothing. What we can see is that as of today WII has outsold PS2 at the same stage in respective consoles life and also WII sales is and have been sold out for long periods and therefore it´s harder to guess what it´s total sales could have been if hardwareshipments would be up to snuff



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Because the Wii is selling even faster than the DS, which will eventually pass the PS2.




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Let's see... It sold 20m by end of '07, about another 20m+ by end of '08. Year three is normally the peak for a console's sales life so let's say 25-30m in 2009. That's around 70m already.
Then 25m, 20m, 10m, 5m for the next four years you're at 130m and that's being very conservative.



 

Selling faster than PS2, and DS, Still hard to find in stores, no price drops and none planned, and no alternate colors released yet, and its in its third year.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Well, currently Nintendo is forecasting 52m by end of March 09 , and they are also producing units at a rate of 2.4m a month (in financial statements)

So they are producing Wiis at 28.8m/year. Since we haven't hit peak demand yet (still sold out in the states, and it seems like it sells more each week in Europe, and Japan could take off again) I'm going to assume they sell out completely for the next 2 years.

So 52m + 28.8*2 = 109.6m units end of March 2011. So the system would have been on the market for 4.5 years, which it took the PS2 ~7 years to hit that same mark (granted, they launched in Japan before the rest of the world, but still, 4.5 years is extremely fast)

Of course, you then have to add on the typical fading of sales over the years, and if we assume it lives for 5 years before a successor, it should easily break the PS2's sales record.

Also, I personally believe they are going to up hardware production one more time so as to meet Christmas demand next year.




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Yep, once the Wii starts to drop sales they still have all of the tricks up their sleeves: New hardcore and new causal games. Price drops. New Bundles. New colored Wiis. etc. It is still selling out and we are moving onto the 3th year.

The Wii is likely to pass the PS2 only if Nintendo keeps supporting it. Meaning, if they continue to push software and market it instead of jumping into the next generation 100%, they probably can. And at the rate that they are doing it. it is looking likely.