I think that the DSi will surpass the PsP in sales between 2-3 years after launch

I kinda think never... i expect a new system out first.

Maybe not though?

Hmm.

DSL vs PsP.

When DSL came out DSP had sold 20M, PsP 13M. PsP had a 13M head start. I assume that roughly 5M more DSP systems were sold.

After 1 year, the situation was about this.

DSP: 23-25M

PsP: 22M

DSL: 20-22M

After 2 years, it was like this.

DSL: 50M

PsP: 36M

DSp: 25M

If we assume a May/June launch for DSi (Others + Americas), we get something ala.

Total DS sold for the rest of the year: 20-25M

Total PsP sold for the rest of the year: 7-11M

As the PsP has a 40M head start, it would take the DSi a long time to catch up.

If we assume a 66-33for DSi/DSl, that means ~ 15M vs 9M PsP. So still 34M to catch up.

Optimistically, DS would sell around 30M next year. 25M DSi. If we assume a slowdown of PsP, with only 5-9M, this means that DSi still has 10M to catch up with (in the best case scenario), and by this time - a new handheld is certainly launched (as in mid 10 or early 11).

Selling 10M more than PsP now is pretty doubtful, but possible.

So even if everything goes BCS for DSi up untill 2011, it is still doubtful that it will pass the PsP.

I'll say never.