Probably around 13 million for PS3 in 2009.

2009 will definitly be better for PS3.
First they will continue to reduce manufacturing cost due to optimization of production process of both cell and br drives (remember if standalone drive went down in price from 400 to 150-200$ then it costs less to manufacture by Sony too).

Second they have much higher install base and those people won't stop buying ps3 games suddenly so the ratio of software sold to consoles sold will be improved meaning more cash.

Third 2009 is a year of starting problems for competitor as initial milions of x360 consoles will be running out of warranty which will mean any broken machine is highly probable to be replaced by new arcade meaning more hardware cost for microsoft without increasing real userbase. We might see impresive sales statistics becouse of it but it will hurt attach ratio. Since we will see on paper more users of x360 then there are in reality.

There are a couple points that need to be pointed out...

- No year is going to be the year of PS3 or Xbox 360 under the shadow of the mighty WII.

- There is a big chance that PS3 won't be profitable all its life overall (not yearly basis).

- PS3 will not get a price cut for quite a long while. at least 6 months, possibly 1 year, but will finally drop to $300 in a foreseeable future. This is the best balance between staying competitive and making huge losses.

- PS3 is far from dead, and it's not going to die or not likely be killed by Sony any soon. But It's a BIG disappointment for Sony, that's for sure.

- 2008 is not a failure for Sony, but not a success either. Sony hasnt been doing great but still acceptably good, along with an increase in sales compared to last year. Still disappointing though as it's faced a very tough competition from MS.

- PS3 sales will not decrease in 2009, but it may not increase as well due to relatively high price and increasing competition from MS.

- Sony is not a small company, it's actually bigger than MS in some terms (like asset value, employees etc.) Sony's current problem is about small profit margins, liquidity and exchange rate fluctuations.

- PS3 may finally pass Xbox 360 sales in 2010 as earliest but, it's a very small chance that it will be as profitable as 360 at all.

- Please drop the "more sales with a higher price tag" argument! Yes PS3 is more expensive but it does not charge for PSN while 360 charges for it, has no bluray player within and the arcade model does not even come up with a HDD. This is not called "higher pricing", but "price discrimination", which is a perfectly legal economic concept and best implemented by MS this year. MS charges less for the 360 but it also costs much less to them than PS3; also the software companies do not care how much a console costs as long as it sells hardware and ultimately software!

- Please do not liken PS3 to Gamecube last gen. GC was way more successfull than PS3. They made money on every console sold, the piracy was minimal and the first party titles were huge. So the Big N made big profits (unlike MS with Xbox), almost on par with PS2. Market share is not everything!

Sure its not 'small', but its still small when compared to MS. Sonys net income is about 6 times smaller than MS.

Net income US$ 3.694 Billion (2008) and if game division makes 3 Billion losses its huge(!) losses compared to MS losses or even 3 Billion losses for MS. (Net income US$ 17.681 Billion (2008))

He's talking about size as in number of employees and assets. However, this is not always a good characteristic, it can even be a drag on the company's financials.

Sony is a big but mismanaged company in my view (having such low profit margins and so many unprofitable divisions at the same time is asking for trouble). Microsoft is a smaller but better managed company, with some of the best profit margins and cash reserves around, which means they can take a huge hit. The same goes for Nintendo, but on a smaller scale of course.

Wow. This is the most depressing thread I have seen in a long while. Maybe ever.

Ironically the video game market is claimed to be 'recession free' so now is the time that the PS3 should be proping up the rest of Sony. Instead it's still unprofitable in itself and needs to be supported by other areas of revenue (PS2/PSP and others).

Sony offers a lot of high-end products and that is now a liability in this economy. They are going to need to restructure and fast or be caught with a ton of dead weight that will pull them under. Plus other factors already covered here.

It's not all bad. All those exclusives can remain exclusives no matter what happens. If the PS3 stops bleeding money, they'll be PS3's, if not and Sony chops it... Well 360 just got a whole new slew of great exclusives.... (well, they'll still made a PS3 version, it's just the PS3 will be a 'dead' console)
That may depress the Sony fanboys but it's keeps Sony in the industry and the hopes of a PS4 alive.

cute.

maybe if the ww economy was as big a turd as the US economy that might be true but its not, just try to understand kids the US empire is going down the crapepr.  But dont worry gamers.

Europe and Asia and gonna takes its place as the worlds powers and major ecomomies, the transition will be shaky but will surely happen. 

Sony getting out of gaming is nothing more then some 12 year olds idiotic dream, thing is to many of them are on here.

I think things for Sony will work out pretty well in 2009. TGhe have a great lineup of exclusives.

         There are several ways to measure one company's size. You cant simply say MS is bigger than IBM simply because they make greater profits... It depends on the perspective. I also totally aggree about the management and profitability/efficiency of Sony vs Microsoft!

@freedquaker, all Sony needs to do is come up with more ways to make the ps3 look more competitive against the wii and 360. It won't happen overnight but step by step they will eventually progress better and better.