I believe that the first nest consle will come from nintendo. Many say it will be Microsoft becuase of the short xbox lifespan but i was not their fault that they had to cut it short. I think that nintendo will  release theirs first becuase their consle is not HD.

Nintendo's fan army will protest, citing sales and history, but I agree. Nintendo has to be the first to release a new console. Wii games appeal to a much wider demographic, but to those who've been playing games for any amount of time, the software's appearance is not aging well. And releasing first is usually an advantage if the hardware is up to snuff. I'm hoping for a new Nintendo Entertainment System in 2011 or 2012. As long as the Wii sells so strongly, it may not happen, though.

It depends on 2009-2011 sales and marketing strategy that we know nothing about so all we can do in this thread is guessing ^^

Not sure who will have first... Definitely not Sony since they need to recover their early losses. Nintendo might since they are seeing nothing but profit. Hard to say but I would pick Nintendo.

MS will not launch first, despite some claims they have made. They will relaunch the X360 as a new "cute" console, tailored to the home audience.

It might have an integrated HDD, but otherwise it'll just be a cool-running, cheap, "cute" 360.

Sony will have a PS4, with the ability to run games at 1080p smoothly, but it'll be years from now, when 1080p is commonplace. The PS3 may get a slimline model, but there's no reason for them to release a new console soon, either.

Nintendo will be the first. There's absolutely no reason for them to hold back on releasing a Wii HD -- something still less powerful than the X360, but with enough muscle to support 720p gaming. It'll be yet another upgrade of the GameCube/Wii architecture, it'll be 100% BC, and probably have an integrated HDD... probably more memory as well, since 720p games will need it.

This would be a brilliant business move by Nintendo... say in late 2010 or 2011. I hardly even use my Wii, and I would buy one in a heartbeat. You can bet all the other Wii gamers on this site would as well. Nintendo would continue to produce both the low- and high-end Wii models, and most of the shovelware would be still targetted at the low-end, where its shovel potential would reach its apex.

Wii HD... 2010 or 2011. Save your $$, because you're gonna buy one for Zelda and Mario whether you already own a Wii SD or not.

Microsoft will be first due to a myriad of reasons. The first obvious reason is that the strategy worked this generation giving them market dominance over Sony. The second reason is Microsoft will bottom out on pricing first. Remember new hardware is more profitable, and old hardware has a set profit. Thirdly it will truncate Sony's profit potential from their present console. Launching early means Sony cannot recoup their incurred losses. Which means the console losses for Sony will be locked in for this generation. The longer the generation drags out the more money Sony can actually make from the PS3.

Sony will not be the aggressor. They have been bloodied badly, and it will take time to recover not only financially, but in regards to strategy. Sony can ill afford to launch another under supported console. That means they must have all their pieces in place before they move. Microsoft may force an earlier move, but ideally Sony wants to have everything right for the next go.

Nintendo is not driving toward the high end market. More importantly their strategy is innovation which works regardless of when the other two companies launch their console. Finally you have to understand that Nintendo is financially conservative, and more importantly has been termed recklessly conservative. They are basically slow to change. This strategy has advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is that it is safe. Until that is the markets dynamics change, and Nintendo is left holding a empty sack. Nintendo as a company likes to rest on its laurels.