I think you two should make a bet of it.

No way.  Not unless it's in chinese currency anyway. 

If China's GDP growth continues, i'd expect by the time it passes the United States it won't be China anymore.

In otherwords the government will have been replaced.

Wait what? So when Obama is elected USA will not be USA anymore?

Well, there are plenty of challenges that China will have to address. It will have an aging population, relatively low population growth relative to its size, an odd gender ratio, and severe environmental degradation. Its path to superpower status is not going to be easily traversable.

No it's still the USA because it's still a two party system.

China... a one party system likely won't be able to stay one party if their economic growth keeps increasing at the rates Manus talks about... because said economic growth eventually will have to spread out, and there is already growing disfavor with the party among those who are profiting.

Eventually there will be an opposition party that will force great change in the government reverting it to a real democracy, thereby changing the country.  Just how the Peoples Republic of China is not recognized as the China that existed before the communists took over.

(See the UN where PRC inherted the rights to China, and where Russia inhereted the rights of the USSR.)

Not to mention numerous other problems they'd have to overcome even if they managed to stay one party... some of which jackson has listed.

China wouldn't get remotely near the British Islands...

China has very little troop projection ability.

The PLAN is improving... but it would be no match for the British.

I'm not even sure they have Aircraft Carriers yet.... and without Aircraft Carries your going to have a hard time fighting a modern naval battle.

Basically in a war between the two the British navy would contain the Chinese and keep them stuck at home, while the british could bomb at will... with little recourse for the Chinese.

Its an escape clause.  Kasz knows that he isnt smarter than practically every economist when they say that China will surpass the United States in total GDP around 2050.  So he can say, "Oh I thought you meant the People's Republic of China, not the Republic of Chinese People, thats changes everything."

China has massive number, and that's about it. The British are vastly better trained the the Chinese. There technology is outstanding as well. yea, the British would kick there asses. One to One they rival the US. They are just way to small in comparison to compete with us. 

The British military is awesome.

How's that an escape clause?  It's a big deal.  Aside from which, government changes would totally screw with their economy while they sorted it out.  Furthermore it's likely China as a government will try and cap growth should it seem that such people are growing to discontent with the government... because that's what authortarian governments do.

Furthermore, i have obvious doubts that the chinese will get over the MANY problems they have to reach such status.

Any economist who says that "Definitly by 2050 China will pass the US" is an idiot, and just about anyone would call that person an idiot to their face because your basically saying that you expect nothing major to change in 50 years.

I mean... there are and have been plenty of things that RAPIDLY change how things happen.

The PRC has one inoperable Soviet aircraft carrier. They have a fairly capable submarine force, however.