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Kasz216 on 04 November 2008
ManusJustus said:
Kasz216 said:

It's likely China as a government will try and cap growth should it seem that such people are growing to discontent with the government... because that's what authortarian governments do.

Any economist who says that "Definitly by 2050 China will pass the US" is an idiot, and just about anyone would call that person an idiot to their face because your basically saying that you expect nothing major to change in 50 years.

I mean... there are and have been plenty of things that RAPIDLY change how things happen.

Great logic, thats why authoritarion governments have been so unsuccessful, their economies are going great but they decide to stop that because the last thing anyone wants is a super power economy.

The Economist asks, "By 2026, will China—assuming it stays in one piece—be the world’s biggest economy?"  Thats a very early estimtate, and more of a headline grabber, but economists who are much smarter than Kasz ever dreamed about being peg China's GDP passing the United States at around 2050, taking into account those 'you have to be an idiot to miss ideas' such as GDP growth slowing overtime for China, political turmoil, China's population, as well as many other factors.

http://www.economist.com/theworldin/international/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5134720&d=2006

"Plenty of things rapidly change the happening of things?"  I'm buying it, but during let me remind you that China's GDP growth stayed around 10 percent from 1976 to today, that includes the fall of the Soviet Union and the complete overhaul of China's economy.

They'd rather have an Authorian government then a Superpower Economy.  Cause that's how the government benfits.


Aside from which... you think peak oil hurts us.  How much is it going to hurt the Chinese and their economy?



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Kasz216 on 04 November 2008
konnichiwa said:
Kasz216 said:
konnichiwa said:

Wait what? So when Obama is elected USA will not be USA anymore?

No it's still the USA because it's still a two party system.

China... a one party system likely won't be able to stay one party if their economic growth keeps increasing at the rates Manus talks about... because said economic growth eventually will have to spread out, and there is already growing disfavor with the party among those who are profiting.

Eventually there will be an opposition party that will force great change in the government reverting it to a real democracy, thereby changing the country.  Just how the Peoples Republic of China is not recognized as the China that existed before the communists took over.

(See the UN where PRC inherted the rights to China, and where Russia inhereted the rights of the USSR.)

Not to mention numerous other problems they'd have to overcome even if they managed to stay one party... some of which jackson has listed.

I really wonder how democracy will work there with their 100 of different languages/cultures and even religions. If Belgium haves problems with only two major regions I really see it fail in China for sure.

 

Who knows.  They're well on there way of trying it out.  They may even split up.  Since there wealth is distributed so far apart by province.  (Which is weird for a supposidly communist country.)

The provinces aren't even remotely in the same leagues when it comes to economic progress.

The more people make though the less likely they are to accept people ruling voer them.

 



Kasz216 on 04 November 2008

Also if you wanna play the "Economist game"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aiveEi_ZUHak

 

There are even more questions as to why China won't keep a 10% GDP growth.

The restructuring of the economy is what let China keep up the GDP growth in the first place.



Jackson50 on 04 November 2008
Kasz216 said:
Jackson50 said:
The PRC is slowly and steadily progressing to a democracy. It may not be noticeable to most people, but it is transforming itself through grassroots democracy. Instead of a trickle down effect where democracy is first practiced at the central level, it is more of a trickle up effect where democracy is practiced at the local level. Now, I am not saying the PRC is a young unconsolidated democracy, but the seeds have been planted.

I agree... but will they allow themselves to change up top?  The old guard surely is going to struggle against the changing.

 

 

Well, certain members have warmed to the idea. Premiere Ziabao certainly acts the part of a politician and seems to advocate some reform. He was also a close friend of former Secretary Ziyang who was a noted reformist. Vice President Jinping is also a possible CCP leader sympathetic to reform. I am not saying a transition will be smooth or likely, but there are conditions and CCP members who could facilitate such a transformation. To be honest, I think the democracy that the PRC eventually transforms into will be a fairly unique system.



SamuelRSmith on 04 November 2008
Cobertnation said:

that would be great for that to happen but, for the world's economy needs china to be an authoritarian gov't for cheap labor. if the people did up rise and take the gov't down and go to an democracy then prices for all goods go through the roof world wide and we all would be in a world depression. So, really we need china to stay the way they are!!! sad to say.

 

 Nah, once things get too expensive in China, the move would move to the next best place, perhaps India, maybe even some African countries. It's just the way things work. Europe used to be the home of manufacturing, but as standards of living increased, it became too expensive to manufacture things there, so they moved to Asian countries. Making thousands, if not millions, of Europeans unemployeed.



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Tispower1 on 04 November 2008
Kasz216 said:
Jackson50 said:
Kasz216 said:
PDF said:
TheRealMafoo said:
The only way a World War is going to happen, is if the US lost its military might.

Aside from that (and it could be done in a mass scale nuclear attack), there never will be a world war.

The US is so far ahead of any other military. People don't realize how amazingly powerful the US military is. They know it's the best, but it's far better then the second best. (The British)

 

2nd best is the British????

The Chinese would rape the UK.

 

China, Russia vs EU, US.   Some how nukes need to be taken off the playing field for this to ever happen

China wouldn't get remotely near the British Islands...

China has very little troop projection ability.

The PLAN is improving... but it would be no match for the British.

I'm not even sure they have Aircraft Carriers yet.... and without Aircraft Carries your going to have a hard time fighting a modern naval battle.

Basically in a war between the two the British navy would contain the Chinese and keep them stuck at home, while the british could bomb at will... with little recourse for the Chinese.

The PRC has one inoperable Soviet aircraft carrier. They have a fairly capable submarine force, however.

 

True... but that's about all they have.  That and Destroyers which... are ok but not great alone.

I mean, maybe they could slip through with a ballistic sub or two and nuke the British isles.  But i think it'd be against them.

Admittidly though with the way the royal navy is going... it may actually turn out that "swarm" tactics could win the day after a while, since the British i believe are cutting down their navy.

Not true, the UK Navy has recently put into production a new type of destroyer, and 2 super carriers with the same F-35 planes the US uses.

Also, the reason China hasn't been an agressor is that for ages they were inder Imperial rule, and so we've only really got the last 100 years to look at, and given at how much they were under attack by Japan, it's no suprise they havent invaded anywhere obviously. However, they have subtly taken over Taiwan, Tibet and Mongolia with very little fighting. Also, they have provided aid to fellow communist contries like North Korea.

Also, perhaps one of the major reasons China has little decent weaponry is because of things like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_arms_embargo_on_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

Effectively prohibiting any military technology of EU origin making it's way into China.

 



DogWeed on 04 November 2008

well mccain lost the election so no world war 3, at least for a while



Kasz216 on 04 November 2008
Tispower1 said:
Kasz216 said:
Jackson50 said:
Kasz216 said:
PDF said:
TheRealMafoo said:
The only way a World War is going to happen, is if the US lost its military might.

Aside from that (and it could be done in a mass scale nuclear attack), there never will be a world war.

The US is so far ahead of any other military. People don't realize how amazingly powerful the US military is. They know it's the best, but it's far better then the second best. (The British)

 

2nd best is the British????

The Chinese would rape the UK.

 

China, Russia vs EU, US.   Some how nukes need to be taken off the playing field for this to ever happen

China wouldn't get remotely near the British Islands...

China has very little troop projection ability.

The PLAN is improving... but it would be no match for the British.

I'm not even sure they have Aircraft Carriers yet.... and without Aircraft Carries your going to have a hard time fighting a modern naval battle.

Basically in a war between the two the British navy would contain the Chinese and keep them stuck at home, while the british could bomb at will... with little recourse for the Chinese.

The PRC has one inoperable Soviet aircraft carrier. They have a fairly capable submarine force, however.

 

True... but that's about all they have.  That and Destroyers which... are ok but not great alone.

I mean, maybe they could slip through with a ballistic sub or two and nuke the British isles.  But i think it'd be against them.

Admittidly though with the way the royal navy is going... it may actually turn out that "swarm" tactics could win the day after a while, since the British i believe are cutting down their navy.

Not true, the UK Navy has recently put into production a new type of destroyer, and 2 super carriers with the same F-35 planes the US uses.

Also, the reason China hasn't been an agressor is that for ages they were inder Imperial rule, and so we've only really got the last 100 years to look at, and given at how much they were under attack by Japan, it's no suprise they havent invaded anywhere obviously. However, they have subtly taken over Taiwan, Tibet and Mongolia with very little fighting. Also, they have provided aid to fellow communist contries like North Korea.

Also, perhaps one of the major reasons China has little decent weaponry is because of things like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_arms_embargo_on_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

Effectively prohibiting any military technology of EU origin making it's way into China.

 

I meant that China only had destroyers.  They've got about like 40 destoryers,  a fleet of subs, then like... some frigates which really wouldn't be of too much practical use.

 



Copycon on 04 November 2008

Economically, the US will be fucked in a few years. With the largest public sector in the world and a low tax policy the country is living on loaned money. The dollar is strong because China want it to be strong, to be able to have a good export market even during the 'bad times'. They will probably invest even more in the dollar now, just to make Chinese products cheaper for American consumers. If China dropped their reserve of USD the value of it would be like a 10th of what it is now.



Beware, I live!
I am Sinistar!
Beware, coward!
I hunger!
Roaaaaaaaaaar!

 

 

 At least 62 million Wii sold by the end of 09 or my mario avatar will get sad
Tispower1 on 04 November 2008
Kasz216 said:
Tispower1 said:
Kasz216 said:
Jackson50 said:
Kasz216 said:
PDF said:
TheRealMafoo said:
The only way a World War is going to happen, is if the US lost its military might.

Aside from that (and it could be done in a mass scale nuclear attack), there never will be a world war.

The US is so far ahead of any other military. People don't realize how amazingly powerful the US military is. They know it's the best, but it's far better then the second best. (The British)

 

2nd best is the British????

The Chinese would rape the UK.

 

China, Russia vs EU, US.   Some how nukes need to be taken off the playing field for this to ever happen

China wouldn't get remotely near the British Islands...

China has very little troop projection ability.

The PLAN is improving... but it would be no match for the British.

I'm not even sure they have Aircraft Carriers yet.... and without Aircraft Carries your going to have a hard time fighting a modern naval battle.

Basically in a war between the two the British navy would contain the Chinese and keep them stuck at home, while the british could bomb at will... with little recourse for the Chinese.

The PRC has one inoperable Soviet aircraft carrier. They have a fairly capable submarine force, however.

 

True... but that's about all they have.  That and Destroyers which... are ok but not great alone.

I mean, maybe they could slip through with a ballistic sub or two and nuke the British isles.  But i think it'd be against them.

Admittidly though with the way the royal navy is going... it may actually turn out that "swarm" tactics could win the day after a while, since the British i believe are cutting down their navy.

Not true, the UK Navy has recently put into production a new type of destroyer, and 2 super carriers with the same F-35 planes the US uses.

Also, the reason China hasn't been an agressor is that for ages they were inder Imperial rule, and so we've only really got the last 100 years to look at, and given at how much they were under attack by Japan, it's no suprise they havent invaded anywhere obviously. However, they have subtly taken over Taiwan, Tibet and Mongolia with very little fighting. Also, they have provided aid to fellow communist contries like North Korea.

Also, perhaps one of the major reasons China has little decent weaponry is because of things like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_arms_embargo_on_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

Effectively prohibiting any military technology of EU origin making it's way into China.

 

I meant that China only had destroyers.  They've got about like 40 destoryers,  a fleet of subs, then like... some frigates which really wouldn't be of too much practical use.

 

 

That was just in reference to your bit about the UK navy slimming down. But subs could definately do some damage, I know ours could! Being the only  nukes we have left