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McCain's Potentially Miserable First Term

By Tom Bevan

Suppose for a moment John McCain wins the Presidency. Yes, with only four days to go the idea remains very much a long shot. But suppose McCain defies political death one more time and ekes out a victory on Tuesday. What then?

When you tick through the list of problems he will face and the environment in which he will have to face them, it's enough to make you wonder whether McCain should really want to win the White House at all.

Start with the aftermath of the election. Roughly 40% of the country (aka Democrats) will be absolutely despondent if Barack Obama loses. There will be ugly cries of racism and - if the election is close, particularly in battleground states where Electoral College votes could have switched the outcome - legal challenges and a collective waving of the bloody shirt will again tear at the social fabric of America.

So unless McCain scored a clear cut victory, he would take the oath of office presiding over a deeply divided country, and one in which parts of the electorate will be nursing psychological wounds and harboring resentments.

Barring some miracle turn around by Republicans at the Congressional level, McCain would be facing sizable Democratic majorities in Congress that would be resistant to his agenda and eager to undercut him at every possible opportunity.

There's also the problem with conservatives. Despite the fact they've rallied to McCain's campaign after his pick of Sarah Palin, they still have fundamental doubts and disagreements with him. It's not hard to see how conservatives could become disillusioned with McCain rather quickly, depending on the agenda he sets and how he proceeds, leaving him in a weakened political position.

McCain will find no comfort from his other "base" (i.e. the mainstream media) either, which has generally favored Obama throughout the contest and with which the McCain campaign has more or less gone to war against in the latter stages of the campaign. President McCain could not expect, nor would he probably receive, any honeymoon or glowing coverage from the press.

Put these things together and it forms a bit of a perfect storm for McCain. In such an environment, what legislation could a McCain administration expect to move through a Democratically-controlled Congress? His options would seem exceedingly limited.

Only two things come to mind where McCain would appear to have the upper hand over Congress on issues that would satisfy Republicans: earmark reform and an "all of the above" energy plan.

Beyond that, however, McCain would be faced with trying to move legislation that would be a difficult sell to a Democratic Congress (i.e. tax cuts) or bills that would potentially alienate conservatives (i.e. comprehensive immigration reform).

Overseeing two wars as Commander in Chief would be among McCain's greatest charges as President, though in many respects his ability to act would be constrained by conditions on the ground.

Similarly, the other area where President McCain could have a significant lasting impact outside of the legislative efforts of his administration - the appointment of justices to the Supreme Court - would also be beyond his control, and should such an opportunity arise it will once again be tempered by a strong Democratic majority in the Senate.

Despite his track record of bipartisanship - or perhaps because of it - President McCain would find himself trying to deal with immense challenges while walking a narrow political tightrope. It's therefore quite possible that McCain's first term as president could be difficult, contentious, and potentially very ineffective.

A surprise win by McCain on Tuesday may make for a miserable first term for him as president, but for those who prefer divided government it may be far better than the alternative: President Obama with a gung ho Democratic majority in Congress.

I don't understand the point of this article. Obviously McCain wants to be president, otherwise he wouldn't be where he is.

well it's the same situation for barack obama

Obama will be working with a majority from his party in BOTH houses of Congress.  McCain will be working with a majority from the other party in both houses of Congress.  How is that the same?

It's not the same.  It's worse.

With an overwhelmingly democratic congress he won't be able to define himself at all from the democratic wing of the congress.

The congress would basically run the president, as Obama really wouldn't have the ability to Veto anything the democratic congress put up unless he wanted to cause the party a lot of troubles.

Which is going to be a really tough situation with the economy as it is, and trying to keep the deficit at well... unreasonable levels, but less then even more unreasonable levels.

He's at a risk if he doesn't show that he won't be pushed around, of getting screwed by his own party, not being able to run his own government.

Walking a tightrope, making comprimises, and getting things done that's in the best interest of everybody is what John McCain does best.  That's why he's a great candidate for president.  (Though I won't vote for him do to the supreme court thing.)

He's work well with a democratic congress and balance with them, and get legislation done that's good for the whole of the country.

The only time it's bad to have a president of a different party then the congress is when one group is too stupid to compromise.  (See the last 2 years.)

The times when the two branches are split and people are willing to compromise are when we have our best times.  (See the Clinton era when he had a republican congress.)

At least it gives Republicans an excuse to bellyache if things don't go well.  Though there are definitely a few things which I think both the Democrats and the American people want, like massive healthcare reform.  Pushing renewables and nuclear is really important too.  I'd like to see stricter environmental regulations as well.