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Forums - General Discussion - McCain will pull a Truman upset...

I believe that he can do this.  McCain can pull a GOP version Truman turnaround 60 yrs later.  I provide the following article for some insight into this. The source site is from a log-cabin Reps. blog (THAT I AM NOT A MEMBER OF!!!) but it is relevant nonetheless no matter your personal preferences.

 

McCain’s feistiness in ‘08 like Truman’s in ‘48

By all measures, the election of 1948 was supposed to be a Republican blowout. The Democrats had been in the White House for sixteen consecutive years, their longest run there since 1824. The beleaguered incumbent had succeeded to office when his popular predecessor had died. Harry S Truman lacked his presence and charisma of FDR.

Most polls had Truman’s Republican challenger New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey up throughout the campaign, sometimes by margins higher than 10 percent. There were, to be sure, far fewer polls then than there are now. Yet, somehow that Democrat managed to pull it off, winning reelection in perhaps the most stunning upset in US presidential politics.

He pulled it off by running and aggressive campaign, barnstorming the country where his supporters implored him to “Give ‘Em Hell, Harry!”

Many have compared the current Republican incumbent to his Democratic predecessor who won in 1948. Both followed (though Bush not directly) a partisan predecessor who redefined his party — and would inspire the faithful (in both parties) for generations after he left office (well, if the first generation after the Gipper is any indication, this inspiration should continue well into this century).

Bush, like Truman, has often been seen as bumbling through office. And among two-term presidents, only Truman has favorability ratings as low as those of George W. Bush.

A few pundits have compared Bush to Truman, Peggy Noonan being the first that I read. But, there are similarities, more of a temperamental nature, between John McCain and the Missouri Democrat. Both distinguished themselves in war, Truman in World War I, McCain in Vietnam. Both gained a reputation straight talkers, though Truman’s speech was known as “Plain Talk.”

Watching John McCain campaign these past few months, I have seen a feistiness similar to that Truman demonstrated on the campaign trail in 1948. In this week’s blogger conference call, for example, he didn’t mince words when he said, “I will be Hamas’ worst nightmare.” A statement like one Truman might make, simple, direct and to the point.

 

Not just that. Unlike his Democratic rivals, particularly Mrs. Clinton, the presumptive GOP nominee seems to believe most of what he says. He’s not just saying certain things to please the media. He may pander to to them from time to time, but such pandering does not define him as it does his rivals. And he has stood firm on the war in Iraq, despite media pressure to bend to their whims so as to remain in their good graces.

As he’s fallen from their grace, he’s standing up their bias, responding swiftly to the almost daily attacks masquerading as news from the New York Times and the Washington Post. The campaign sends out regular e-mails to bloggers and often the GOP faithful, pointing out the inaccuracies and flaws in those articles, oftentimes before the print version of the article has even appeared.

Or just to note that these papers are making mountains out of molehills while they ignore similar behavior by Democrats.

And heck, Truman picked a running mate, Alben W. Barkley who was just shy of 72 when he was sworn in as the nation’s 35th Vice President.

Given the dynamics of this election year, John McCain will must keep this feistiness up. For similar feistiness helped Truman win in a year which did not look to favor his party. And unlike John McCain, he was the incumbent that year. But, he still managed to win.

 

http://www.gaypatriot.net/2008/04/27/mccains-feistiness-in-08-like-trumans-in-48/



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The Gallup poll was the only nation wide poll back then, the last one was done Oct 18 and they were done by phone, but in 1948 only affluent people owned phones.

There were two Democrats (running as Progressive and Socialist) and one Dixiecrat running against Truman(D) and Dewey(R). Predictions figured that those would pull votes away from Truman and give it to Dewey.

The paper with the famous line, "Dewey Defeats Truman", was the Chicago Tribune, a conservative paper.

If anything, the only correlation between that election and this one that can be drawn is that affluent people are more likely to be home during polling hours.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

There are differences, big ones. Mostly in the quality of the polling. Back in '48 the polls were heavily biased towards phone owners (read: the rich) where Truman had massive support amongst the poor and the polling was stopped well before the actual election because the result was seen as a foregone conclusion.
On top of that the person running against Truman ran an extremely low key and passive campaign with little to no policy purely with the aim of not alienating voters rather than actually gaining them.

The only real similarity I can see between the two elections is that in both of them one candidate is heavily behind in the polls, however there have been plenty of other elections with that situation and the majority of them don't end up with a comeback win.



I don't know how some one could be a Log Cabin Republican...that's like saying you are a black person at a Ku Klan Meeting.

The Republican Party usually doesn't even let them have booths at their events, or give them any kind of recognition. They are treated like second class citizens BY THEIR OWN PARTY. Talk about gluttons for punishment. A healthy percentage of the people in your party think you are fundamentally evil. I really don't know how you can reconcile being gay and Republican...libertarian sure, but Republican?



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

the presumptive GOP nominee seems to believe most of what he says.


 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

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McCain WILL be our next President. I'm sure of it. And the thought of it depresses the hell out of me.



d21lewis said:
McCain WILL be our next President. I'm sure of it. And the thought of it depresses the hell out of me.


Wanna bet? I already put 180 € down on Obama

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

I hope you're right, NJ5.



No way McCain will win. obama is already looking and talking like a president.
It's too bad cause I'll miss Tina Fey's Palin character.

thursday night with Will Ferrell was funny.
tina fey is hot as Palin.



Somehow I don't think feistiness is what will help McCain fix the global economic crisis in these last 2 weeks, which is a shame, because that's the only way he can win.

(Don't worry d21lewis. In the most recent polls, Obama's now leading in North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana.)