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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii will not make 50% marketshare this year :(

Untouch on 21 October 2008
oliminator1994 said:
I hope that Wii will never get 50%. Im a fan of improved graphiced capable consoles :)

 

 

Cry moar.



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shams on 21 October 2008

Yeah, I don't think they will. Left their run too late.

Very good chance they will hit 50% in Feb/March '09 though.



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Oyvoyvoyv on 21 October 2008
souixan said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
DMeisterJ said:
Nope, it won't. It'll be like at 49.5 or something. 360 should be at 26, 26.5 PS3 should be somewhere between 20 - 21.5, and Wii should be 45 million on the dot.

So it should miss the mark by at least 1 million, but at most, 2.5 million.

 

 Well, http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=45704.

 

You do here predict

Wii: 44.75M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.4M -23.2%

X360: 26.1M - 28.1%

 

So

1) Your predictions are very different

2) The prediction in the quote leaves 4% to no-one.

 

 

 

Ummm where do you get 4% in 48.5 23.2 and 28.1? that leaves 0.2%

 

 In the quote, not the link. The link leaves 0.2% due to rounding errors, the quote leaves 21.5 + 26.5 + 49.5 = 3% off or something.

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Mr.Y on 21 October 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:
souixan said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
DMeisterJ said:
Nope, it won't. It'll be like at 49.5 or something. 360 should be at 26, 26.5 PS3 should be somewhere between 20 - 21.5, and Wii should be 45 million on the dot.

So it should miss the mark by at least 1 million, but at most, 2.5 million.

 

 Well, http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=45704.

 

You do here predict

Wii: 44.75M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.4M -23.2%

X360: 26.1M - 28.1%

 

So

1) Your predictions are very different

2) The prediction in the quote leaves 4% to no-one.

 

 

 

Ummm where do you get 4% in 48.5 23.2 and 28.1? that leaves 0.2%

 

 In the quote, not the link. The link leaves 0.2% due to rounding errors, the quote leaves 21.5 + 26.5 + 49.5 = 3% off or something.

 

Clearly that 2.5% goes to the Vii.

 



tuoyo on 21 October 2008

Was always much more likely to happen next year rather than this year. I am suprised there are so many that still think it will never get to 50%



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woopah on 21 October 2008

itll it it before the end of the financial year



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Oyvoyvoyv on 21 October 2008
Mr.Y said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
souixan said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
DMeisterJ said:
Nope, it won't. It'll be like at 49.5 or something. 360 should be at 26, 26.5 PS3 should be somewhere between 20 - 21.5, and Wii should be 45 million on the dot.

So it should miss the mark by at least 1 million, but at most, 2.5 million.

 

 Well, http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=45704.

 

You do here predict

Wii: 44.75M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.4M -23.2%

X360: 26.1M - 28.1%

 

So

1) Your predictions are very different

2) The prediction in the quote leaves 4% to no-one.

 

 

 

Ummm where do you get 4% in 48.5 23.2 and 28.1? that leaves 0.2%

 

 In the quote, not the link. The link leaves 0.2% due to rounding errors, the quote leaves 21.5 + 26.5 + 49.5 = 3% off or something.

 

Clearly that 2.5% goes to the Vii.

 

But remember that it is possible that it is as high as 4.5% going by DMJ's numbers. This means that the Vii increases almost 0.1% every week! In 4 years, the Vii is going to have a higher market share than the 360. Quote me on that.

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

superchunk on 21 October 2008
astrosmash said:
superchunk said:

With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.

 

 

Nintendo says 51mil shipped to retail by March 31. Do the math backwards from there and you will see supply will not constrain them to 42 mil by December 31.

 

Without rushing January shipments, they should get about 43.5 million to retail by December 31; if they rush January shipments like last year 46 million to retail by December 31 should be possible.

That was my original logic all year long when I kept saying 45-50m by year's end. However, now that we are so close and I run the real numbers and plausible % increases from last year, I just don't see how its possible.

Granted I won't be sad if I'm wrong but I don't see Nintendo selling more than 43m by January.

Then if they would need to sale an average of 3m through March to make their 51m target. So, you argument is still very valid.

 



Groucho on 21 October 2008
sc94597 said:
@ Groucho The gamecube didn't take away PS2 sales dispite being over 100 dollars cheaper, what makes you think the Wii would be overtaken by the 360 due to a 50 dollar difference.

 

The 360 doesn't have to "overtake the Wii" to make 50% marketshare for the Wii impossible.  Not even close.



peachbuggy on 21 October 2008

Think the Wii will get to 50% by next Jan or Feb but not sure if it can hold it for the entire gen. Think there will be a fightback by HD consoles. The % will fluctuate and i think eventually it will fall short but only by a tiny amount.



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