CrazzyMan why do you even bother? is it for the LOL's? I wont bother refuting what you said because its a joke isn't it :)
would of done better if i knew how good 360 was doing in PAL
damn u 360 price cut
Play Me
I don't think I'll do too hot next week. I have the Wii dropping 70k...
| Veggie said: I don't think I'll do too hot next week. I have the Wii dropping 70k... |
I heavily overestimated the Ps3 and X360. Looks like I'm going to end in the bottom 3 for those through all December.
I think my Wii one, which is the one I put the most time into, is the best one by far.
Anyway, you're currently ranked as the best predictor on VGChartz, Veggie 
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261
That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS
WW numbers.
 Japan |
 America |
 Others |
Total | |
 |
177,934 | 160,671 | 271,815 | 610,420 |
 |
25,330 | 275,772 | 185,307 | 486,409 |
 |
7,073 | 83,166 | 107,885 | 198,124 |
 |
33,843 | 65,847 | 92,539 | 192,229 |
 |
49,529 | 58,454 | 65,234 | 173,217 |
DS is a beast, and I thought the adjustments would make my X360 figure too low, but it seems ok.
May I ask what scoring method you used Oyv... I may just make my own up but I'd like to know how you got those numbers in case I want to steal your method.
![[Prototype]](https://www.vgchartz.com/games/boxart/2846586AmericaFrontccc.jpg)
| CrazzyMan said: PS3: 3 mln. in Japan + USA. 3 mln. in Europe. Overall over 14 mln. LTD this year or around 23-24 mln. |
so they are gonna sell more than they will ship?
i see..
| TWRoO said: WW numbers.
May I ask what scoring method you used Oyv... I may just make my own up but I'd like to know how you got those numbers in case I want to steal your method. |
I used the Mario Kart method.
1st gets 8 points
2nd 7
3rd 6
...
7th 2
8th 1
If some are tied, they both get the sum that's in the middle.
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261
That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS
Oh... which Mario Kart is that? because 64 had 9, 6, 3 and 1 point for the top 4, Double Dash had 12 for top spot, and Wii has 15.
Edit... Ah you meant the Mario Kart league Ben set up.
Anyhow... I was going to do a score based on accuracy, if you like though you could run your method alongside mine and see what changes.
Basically I am working out the discrepancy between the predictions and the actual numbers, and then awarding points for each %age point over ....which means the lowest score wins like in golf (0% discrepancy is 100% accurate)
Does that sound fair?
Console Specific Scoreboards
| Wii scoreboard | TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 |
| week 1 |
7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 0 |
| week 2 | 18 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 6 |
| week 3 | 13 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 7 |
| week 4 | 17 | 34 | 22 | 17 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 17 |
| week 5 | 23 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 38 | 1 |
| week 6 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 23 | 18 |
| week 7 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| week 8 | 19 | 35 | 26 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 11 | 3 |
| week 9 | 26 | 10 | 23 | 30 | 59 | 8 | 17 | 34 |
| week 10 | 34 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 41 | 12 | 41 | 5 |
| Total score | 164pts |
170pts |
127pts | 139pts | 222pts | 161pts | 205pts | 92pts |
| PS3 scoreboard | TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 |
| week 1 | 6 | 9 | 56 | 4 | 40 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
| week 2 | 5 | 43 | 67 | 14 | 57 | 67 | 37 | 9 |
| week 3 | 33 | 47 | 90 | 42 | 66 | 66 | 46 | 18 |
| week 4 | 45 | 87 | 87 | 37 | 66 | 56 | 88 | 45 |
| week 5 | 29 | 26 | 36 | 24 | 41 | 36 | 24 | 39 |
| week 6 | 57 | 85 | 85 | 45 | 71 | 42 | 68 | 42 |
| week 7 | 68 | 73 | 80 | 44 | 68 | 32 | 70 | 68 |
| week 8 | 81 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 43 | 62 | 57 | 90 |
| week 9 | 60 | 103 | 60 | 92 | 82 | 7 | 98 | 31 |
| week 10 | 53 | 130 | 110 | 53 | 110 | 53 | 99 | 22 |
| Total score | 437pts | 655pts | 723pts | 407pts | 644pts | 438pts | 592pts | 370pts |
| 360 scoreboard | TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 |
| week 1 | 0 | 36 | 26 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| week 2 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 9 | 17 | 37 | 13 | 25 |
| week 3 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| week 4 | 31 | 19 | 1 | 31 | 19 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
| week 5 | 31 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 35 | 37 | 43 | 30 |
| week 6 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 11 | 30 | 19 | 25 |
| week 7 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 9 | 18 |
| week 8 | 8 | 30 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 14 | 21 | 24 |
| week 9 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 29 |
| week 10 | 2 | 12 | 63 | 12 | 29 | 12 | 16 | 23 |
| Total score | 137pts | 229pts | 254pts | 158pts | 196pts | 217pts | 136pts | 201pts |
| Overall scoreboard |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 |
| week 1 | 13 | 59 | 85 | 4 | 83 | 34 | 16 | 17 |
| week 2 | 40 | 82 | 102 | 43 | 88 | 118 | 69 | 40 |
| week 3 | 53 | 97 | 122 | 49 | 101 | 90 | 57 | 25 |
| week 4 | 93 | 140 | 110 | 85 | 114 | 104 | 97 | 78 |
| week 5 | 83 | 73 | 89 | 90 | 102 | 96 | 105 | 70 |
| week 6 | 85 | 117 | 103 | 73 | 83 | 87 | 110 | 85 |
| week 7 | 87 | 103 | 108 | 68 | 88 | 61 | 107 | 87 |
| week 8 | 108 | 117 | 100 | 83 | 82 | 98 | 89 | 117 |
| week 9 | 87 | 123 | 98 | 123 | 141 | 51 | 116 | 94 |
| week 10 | 89 | 143 | 187 | 86 | 180 | 77 | 156 | 50 |
| Total score | 738pts | 1054pts | 1104pts | 704pts | 1062pts | 816pts | 922pts | 663pts |
Re-posted on this new page for clarity (and I will use this post as a store for the complete totals, the OP will only house the last couple of weeks, otherwise I will end up with massive first posts with too many tables)
"Original VGC" Weekly Discrepancy Tables
| Week 1 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -7.5% | -14.7% | -3.4% | +0.7% | -17.8% | -17.8% | -7.5% | -0.3% | +/-8.71% |
| PS3 discrepancy | -6.4% | +9.2% | +56.1% | +4.0% | +40.5% | +17.0% | +4.0% | -6.4% | +/-17.95% |
| 360 discrepancy | +0.9% | +36.3% | +26.2% | +0.9% | +26.2% | +0.9% | +6.0% | -11.7% | +/-13.64% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 7+6+0 | 14+9+36 | 3+56+26 | 0+4+0 | 17+40+26 | 17+17+0 | 7+4+5 | 0+6+11 | |
| Total score | 13pts | 59pts | 85pts | 4pts | 83pts | 34pts | 16pts | 17pts |
| Week 2 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -18.5% | -22.2% | -14.7% | -20.4% | -14.7% | -14.7% | -19.0% | -6.1% | +/-16.29% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +5.1% | +43.4% | +67.3% | +14.7% | +57.7% | +67.3% | +37.6% | +9.9% | +/-37.88% |
| 360 discrepancy | +17.5% | +17.5% | +21.4% | -9.9% | +17.5% | +37.1% | -13.9% | -25.6% | +/-20.05% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 18+5+17 | 22+43+17 | 14+67+21 | 20+14+9 | 14+57+17 | 14+67+37 | 19+37+13 | 6+9+25 | |
| Total score | 40pts | 82pts | 102pts | 43pts | 88pts | 118pts | 69pts | 40pts |
| Week 3 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -13.8% | -25.4% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -17.1% | -17.1% | -4.7% | -7.2% | +/-10.81% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +33.1% | +47.3% | +90.1% | +42.6% | +66.3% | +66.3% | +46.9% | +18.8% | +/-51.43% |
| 360 discrepancy | +7.3% | +25.2% | +32.4% | -7.3% | +18.1% | +7.3% | -7.3% | -0.2% | +/-13.14% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 13+33+7 | 25+47+25 | 0+90+32 | 0+42+7 | 17+66+18 | 17+66+7 | 4+46+7 | 7+18+0 | |
| Total score | 53pts | 97pts | 122pts | 49pts | 101pts | 90pts | 57pts | 25pts |
| Week 4 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -17.2% | -34.4% | -22.3% | -17.2% | -29.9% | -29.9% | +7.2% | -17.2% | +/-21.91% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +45.7% | +87.4% | +87.4% | +37.4% | +66.5% | +56.1% | +88.2% | +45.7% | +/-64.30% |
| 360 discrepancy | +31.1% | +19.7% | +1.3% | -31.1% | +19.7% | +19.7% | -2.4% | -16.2% | +/-17.65% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 17+45+31 | 34+87+19 | 22+87+1 | 17+37+31 | 29+66+19 | 29+56+19 | 7+88+2 | 17+45+16 | |
| Total score | 93pts | 140pts | 110pts | 85pts | 114pts | 104pts | 97pts | 78pts |
| Week 5 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -23.1% | +7.7% | +13.5% | -26.8% | -26.8% | -23.1% | -38.4% | -1.1% | +/-20.06% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +29.1% | +26.7% | +36.6% | +24.2% | +41.6% | +36.6% | +24.2% | +39.1% | +/-32.26% |
| 360 discrepancy | -31.3% | -40.0% | -40.0% | -40.0% | -35.0% | -37.5% | -43.8% | -30.6% | +/-37.28% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 23+29+31 | 7+26+40 | 13+36+40 |
26+24+40 |
26+41+35 | 23+36+37 | 38+24+43 | 1+39+30 | |
| Total score | 83pts | 73pts | 89pts | 90pts | 102pts | 96pts | 105pts | 70pts |
| Week 6 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -6.7% | -10.9% | -2.4% | -6.7% | +1.8% | -15.2% | -23.2% | +18.8% | +/-10.71% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +57.2% | +85.7% | +85.7% | +45.7% | +71.5% | +42.8% | +68.6% | +42.8% | +/-62.50% |
| 360 discrepancy | -22.6% | -22.6% | -16.4% | -22.6% | -11.7% | -30.3% | -19.5% | -25.7% | +/-21.41% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 6+57+22 | 10+85+22 | 2+85+16 |
6+45+22 |
1+71+11 | 15+42+30 | 23+68+19 | 18+42+25 | |
| Total score | 85pts | 117pts | 103pts | 73pts | 83pts | 87pts | 110pts | 85pts |
| Week 7 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | -1.9% | -12.1% | -10.7% | -12.1% | +4.8% | +4.8% | -29.0% | +1.4% | +/-9.60% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +68.4% | +73.2% | +80.4% | +44.3% | +68.4% | +32.3% | +70.8% | +68.4% | +/-63.28% |
| 360 discrepancy | -18.9% | -18.9% | -18.9% | -12.2% | -16.2% | -25.7% | -9.4% | -18.9% | +/-17.39% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 1+68+18 | 12+73+18 | 10+80+18 |
12+44+12 |
4+68+16 | 4+32+25 | 28+70+9 | 1+68+18 | |
| Total score | 87pts | 103pts | 108pts | 68pts | 88pts | 61pts | 107pts | 87pts |
| Week 8 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | +19.7% | +36.0% | +26.2% | -7.5% | +14.2% | +22.4% | +11.5% | +3.9% | +/-17.68% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +81.2% | +52.6% | +52.6% | +52.6% | +43.0% | +62.1% | +57.3% | +90.7% | +/-61.51% |
| 360 discrepancy | -8.8% | -30.3% | -22.7% | -24.9% | -26.0% | -14.2% | -22.0% | -24.9% | +/-21.73% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 19+81+8 | 35+52+30 | 26+52+22 |
7+52+24 |
14+43+25 | 22+62+14 | 11+57+21 | 3+90+24 | |
| Total score | 108pts | 117pts | 100pts | 83pts | 82pts | 98pts | 89pts | 117pts |
| Week 9 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | +27.0% | +10.7% | +23.7% | +30.2% | +59.5% | -8.8% | +17.2% | -34.9% | +/-26.50% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +60.7% | +103.5% | +60.7% | +92.8% | +82.1% | +7.1% | +98.1% | +31.7% | +/-67.09% |
| 360 discrepancy | +1.9% | -10.8% | -15.9% | +1.9% | -0.6% | -36.3% | +1.9% | -29.9% | +/-12.40% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 26+60+1 | 10+103+10 | 23+60+15 |
30+92+1 |
59+82+0 | 8+7+36 | 17+98+1 | 34+31+29 | |
| Total score | 87pts | 123pts | 98pts | 123pts | 141pts | 51pts | 116pts | 94pts |
| Week 10 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 | average |
| Wii discrepancy | +34.9% | +1.9% | +14.7% | +21.4% | +41.7% | -12.3% | +41.7% | -5.6% | +/-21.78% |
| PS3 discrepancy | +53.3% | +130.0% | +110.8% | +53.3% | +110.8% | +53.3% | +99.3% | +22.7% | +/-79.19% |
| 360 discrepancy | +2.3% | -12.3% | +63.7% | -12.3% | -29.8% | -12.3% | +17.0% | -24.0% | +/-21.71% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 34+53+2 | 1+130+12 | 14+110+63 |
21+53+12 |
41+110+29 | 12+53+12 | 41+99+16 | 5+22+23 | |
| Total score | 89pts | 143pts | 187pts | 86pts | 180pts | 77pts | 156pts | 50pts |
--
Overall Discrepancy so far
This table shows the cumulative results with a seperate set of scores relating to cumulative predictions, so should you over-predict a console by 10k one week, and under-predict by 10k the next week, the prediction for bothweeks together will work out ok.
The last line is a total of all three consoles together, but I have not made scores for this as one could predict huge sales for one console and really low for the others, yet still get a good score on that basis.
| Weeks 1-7 |
TWRoO | DarthDev | Oyvoyvoyv | Veggie | DMeisterJ | Zucas | Skeezer | BHR-3 |
| Cumulative Wii Prediction (actual = 6,910,220) |
5,650k | 5,610k | 6,150k | 5,560k | 5,650k | 5,500k | 5,111k | 6,440k |
| Wii discrepancy | -18.2% | -18.8% |
-11.0% |
-19.5% | -18.2% | -20.4% | -26.0% | -6.8% |
| Cumulative PS3 Prediction (actual - 1,983,570) |
2,800k | 3,150k | 3,450k | 2,680k | 3,220k | 2,900k | 3,049k | 2,770k |
| PS3 discrepancy | -41.2% | +58.8% | +73.9% | +35.1% | +62.3% | +46.2% | +53.7% | +39.6% |
| Cumulative 360 Prediction (actual = 3,416,421) |
2,750k | 2,850k | 2,980k | 2,660k | 2,940k | 2,700k | 2,795k | 2,645k |
| 360 discrepancy | -19.5% | -16.6% | -12.8% | -22.1% | -13.9% | -30.0% | -18.2% | -22.6% |
| Score (W+P+X) | 18+41+19 | 18+58+16 | 11+73+12 | 19+35+22 | 18+62+13 | 20+46+29 | 26+53+18 | 6+39+22 |
| Total score | 78pts | 92pts | 96pts | 76pts | 93pts | 95pts | 97pts | 67pts |
| Cumulative Total Prediction (actual = 12,310,211) |
11,200k | 11,610k | 12,580k | 10,900k | 11,810k | 11,100k | 10,955k | 11,855k |
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