Well, going by the actual 2006 list, it seems to primarily be based on highest ratings by critics. If not "based on" there is at least a strong correlation:

Gears 94

Zelda 95

Oblivion 94

Okami 93

Those were pretty much the four highest rated games of 2006. The only exception in the five GOTY nominees is Wii Sports (76), and that was nominated more for its innovative game design and technology.

My GOTY contenders would be Super Mario Galaxy, Mass Effect or Bioshock. GTA, Halo and Brawl are going to more of the same, which isn't entirely bad, but we need innovation to be the best game of the year.

But Okami came out for the ps2 and it looks amazing on it. How can it be criticized for last generation graphics?

ps: There seems to be no current generation. Only last-gen and next-get. :P

Don't forget the "new-gen". Anyways I think he means the graphics of Okami compared to Gears and Oblivion, not compared to regular PS2 graphics.

 lol. I remeber when I came to this board, Kwaad was boasting of his 2000 posts or somin, and now ckmlb has close to 4000 :O I would like to know for ckmlb, what the ration is between playing vg games, and being on vg vhartz :P

Ckmlb probably earned moderatership due in part to the time he's been here but More importantly probably due to the fact that having a person with a strong Sony preference as a moderator (in addition to the previously rarely seen Roadkiller) helps balance out the perception of Nintendo bias on the forum. I think Ckmlb himself was even one of the advocates proclaiming the forum's moderators were all Nintendo biased himself so its not unlikely that he convinced ioi to give himself moderatorship to help correct this perception. Either way, he has stopped flamming Nintendo threads for the most part (or at least of what I have seen) since becomming a mod and is doing a very good job IMO, so I see no problem with it. I can't imagine too many mods were saints before being indoctrinated into the botherhood of VG chartz.

 Okami was very pretty and I never or will never say otherwise and I don't think anyone else has really said otherwise either, but graphics wise it wasn't anything impressive.  It had style which counts loads more than realistic graphics (which is what most people consider good graphics).  

As for Wii Sports, plenty of people counted graphics when evaluating Wii Sports.  One of the things a lot of people try to bash is because it has beyond simple graphics (which once again I have no problem with).

And Oblivion, it's my own opinion, but it wasn't what it was cracked up to be.  I know only a very small number of people that finished the main storyline, save for the Dark Hand and a few other quests, they large amount of sidequests weren't that impressive (though it was nice they had so many), the gameplay wasn't great, the leveling system was broken, it took user created mods to create all the little problems with the game, it wasn't really that pretty--it just used a lot of bloom (and I even found a few floating trees in Kevatch), the face modder they used wasn't great in that everyone looked the same, all the NPC's had the same exact voice (especially the orcs), and the list goes on.  The game wasn't bad, it just wasn't as great of a game as everyone made it out to be. 

Assassins Creed looks set to take GotY other contenders are Mass Effect,Halo3(wont win but it will be a contender),Lair(due to graphics and amount of things on screen at once),Heavenly Sword(again like Halo3),Uncharted(if the controls are better and smoother),GTAIV,SSBB.

As others have state, I have troubles seeing Halo 3, GTAIV, and SSBB on the game of the year list. I'm sure they will all be great games that people will eat up, but they haven't done much at all to evolve the genre in any way. There are some sequels that can make it on the game of the year list (Zelda for instance), but most can't because they are generally just upgrades from the version before.

I originally put Assassin's Creed on my list, but the more I watch and read about it, the less I'm thinking it's going to make it on the list. Don't get me wrong, it looks great and I'll likely end up getting it, but from what I've read the combat system isn't there yet and there's not a lot to do other than explore.

As for Heavenly Sword, I'm not convinced yet that it's something other than a God of War clone and I just don't think it's going to make it on the list. I already pointed out earlier that just being pretty doesn't guarantee you position on the game of the year list. So far, Heavenly Sword hasn't shown anything to make it stand out other than being pretty.

Lair is pretty much in the same boat and things on screen doesn't always equal good. I admit, I actually haven't read much at all about the game but if things on screen at once is it's selling point, well, we've already seen that doesn't do much for a game.

1. Super Mario Galaxy

2. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (if it has online it moves up to #1)

3. Bioshock

4. Metroid Prime 3

5. GTA IV

Reasons others weren't picked:

Halo 3: I expect more of the same, which can only keep you going for so long. I think this will severely reduce it's reviews

Assassin's Creed: Am I the only one who thinks the combat in this game looks absolutely horrid? I was bored just THINKING about playing that combat system. I can't imagine me even remotely enjoying combat in this game after what I saw.

Uncharted: Well it's too early to be sure, but so far everything on it has had horrendous framerate drops which should have been fixed by now, and I'm now worried that they won't be for the final version of the game.

Mass Effect: I don't think it's going to live up to the hype, and I can see numerous flaws that can sneak in the game to knock it's score down below GOTY contender range. I'm pretty sure it will be great no matter what, but I don't expect GOTY level.