A few notes to hopefully reason with your intuition as being baseless:
1) When a console RRODs, it experiences a GPU failure for RRODs about 90% of the time. The GPU separates from the mobo, and renders the system non-working
Because of this, Microsoft re-furbishes the consoles by repairing the GPU. Provided this is the issue (which again, 90% of the time it is), the console would be repaired.
The problem your unfounded idea comes into is that if this was the case, Arcades would have VERY telltale signs of being old refurbs - ancient manufacturing dates (if they were refurbed, by law, they'd have to be marked as such with a refurb date), old mobos, and the like.
All of that is 100% against your unfounded (and in my opinion, stupid) argument. Go to the store and buy an arcade. You'll find a Falcon chipset (which rarely if ever RRoD), HDMI, and new components - 0% of which are on refurbished units.
Now, you CAN go buy refurbished units. Gamestops all over America sell the refurbished units for $50-$100 off the price of typical Xbox 360's. So Microsoft does recoup some of their costs of fixing up the older 360s.
So to sum up:
1) Refurbished units are SOLD to consumers as refurbs and SENT to users that get their X360's repaired. This is part of the reason we've seen people with 10 Xbox 360's replaced.
2) Microsoft would get in a crapstorm of trouble if they advertised Arcades as new, non-refurbs and then were refurbs.
3) Arcades have the newest hardware components and revisions available, just like Pros and Elites. Why would they be in-line with every other system if they were refurbs?
4) Arcades HAVE been around since the dawn and launch of the X360. Remember the Core? It's the same thing, so it's not like Microsoft suddenly launched the Arcade at some mysterious time to make one wonder.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
