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Forums - General Discussion - Questions about the financial crisis?

kirby007 on 07 October 2008

How long do you suspect it will last?

Have we seen all the problems or are the still some dirty secrets within the big financial coorparations?

Will the stock drop even more?

How much will gold rise, or maybe will fall?

Will oil affect the the future after the crisis again?

what will the real estate prices gonna do?

 

pick a question ( or more ) and tell me what you think



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kirby007 on 07 October 2008

Allright I will go first then.

How much will gold rise, or maybe will fall?
This is obvious in times the confidence level is far below zero gold is the only decent read : reliable investment so it will make some nice intrest ( dont expect something stellar though )


Have we seen all the problems or are the still some dirty secrets within the big financial coorparations?
I expect some nasty things will comeout this year...
the damage is "relative" small so far

Will the stock drop even more?
YEAH, see the point above, maybe a year from now the first signs of recovery

How long do you suspect it will last?
thanks too not knowing what will happen and the low confidence level it will take atleast a couple of years before things will really look sunny again.
BUT dont forget even in depressions money can be made.


Don't kill me if i'm wrong



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

NJ5 on 07 October 2008

If we are lucky, the system doesn't collapse totally during the next few weeks. There might be a straw waiting to break the camel's back.

If such a collapse doesn't happen, it's impossible for me to determine when the crisis will be over. But one thing's for sure... with peak oil production getting nearer and nearer (if not past already), recovering to the same economic level gets harder and harder. We may well never see again the kind of world we have today.

 



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kirby007 on 08 October 2008
NJ5 said:

If we are lucky, the system doesn't collapse totally during the next few weeks. There might be a straw waiting to break the camel's back.

If such a collapse doesn't happen, it's impossible for me to determine when the crisis will be over. But one thing's for sure... with peak oil production getting nearer and nearer (if not past already), recovering to the same economic level gets harder and harder. We may well never see again the kind of world we have today.

 

 

do you suspect fall too half its value really drop too zero?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

akuma587 on 08 October 2008

Its gonna last a pretty long time, at least 6 months longer. Maybe not at a "crisis" level, but certainly at a "fearful" level. Things will perk up some when a new President gets elected, they always do.



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NJ5 on 08 October 2008
kirby007 said:
NJ5 said:

If we are lucky, the system doesn't collapse totally during the next few weeks. There might be a straw waiting to break the camel's back.

If such a collapse doesn't happen, it's impossible for me to determine when the crisis will be over. But one thing's for sure... with peak oil production getting nearer and nearer (if not past already), recovering to the same economic level gets harder and harder. We may well never see again the kind of world we have today.

 

 

do you suspect fall too half its value really drop too zero?


Sorry, I didn't understand that question!

The next few weeks are going to be very telling. It's time for quarterly financial reports to come out, and the credit default swaps market will be settling for three weeks. I suspect a few bombs will be dropped on more banks, and that's when things can get ugly. The famous "Wall Street bailout" will take time to come into action, they're still in the planning phase.

Massive inflation and job losses are what scares me.

 



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kirby007 on 08 October 2008
NJ5 said:
kirby007 said:
NJ5 said:

If we are lucky, the system doesn't collapse totally during the next few weeks. There might be a straw waiting to break the camel's back.

If such a collapse doesn't happen, it's impossible for me to determine when the crisis will be over. But one thing's for sure... with peak oil production getting nearer and nearer (if not past already), recovering to the same economic level gets harder and harder. We may well never see again the kind of world we have today.

 

 

do you suspect fall too half its value really drop too zero?


Sorry, I didn't understand that question!

The next few weeks are going to be very telling. It's time for quarterly financial reports to come out, and the credit default swaps market will be settling for three weeks. I suspect a few bombs will be dropped on more banks, and that's when things can get ugly. The famous "Wall Street bailout" will take time to come into action, they're still in the planning phase.

Massive inflation and job losses are what scares me.

 

my bad, when I read it now I don't even understand it. I was talking about the stock value and too what extend it will fall.

But you are talking about the effects on normal things in life : jobs , rapidly increasing prices for goods, if I follow what you are saying

 



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

NJ5 on 08 October 2008
kirby007 said:

my bad, when I read it now I don't even understand it. I was talking about the stock value and too what extend it will fall.

But you are talking about the effects on normal things in life : jobs , rapidly increasing prices for goods, if I follow what you are saying

 

The more people fear a big recession, depression or crash, the more it will fall. I suspect the bad news will keep coming for at least a few weeks, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Dow index dropped to even low 8000 level this year. Predictions for next year are anyone's guess...

Yes, I am quite concerned about the impact in everyone's life. The problem with this crisis is that it's going to affect much more than Wall Street. There's too much money and debt in the world, and we're going to witness a painful correction which might even cause the system to fail.

 



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steven787 on 08 October 2008

How long do you suspect it will last? It will continue to get worse for 3-6 more months.

Have we seen all the problems or are the still some dirty secrets within the big financial coorparations? In general, not much new will appear. Specifically, more companies will have issues.

Will the stock drop even more? DJIA will hit 7920-8000 low. This sounds bad, but it's actually pretty optimistic.

How much will gold rise, or maybe will fall? US$- It will rise a little more, but because weakening currencies, dollar will keep rising meaning gold will be kept in check.


Will oil affect the the future after the crisis again?

When the U.S. starts shifting away from oil, there will be a scare, prices will plummet. Companies will go bust, people will lose a lot of money. But it will be better than if the US$ isn't the oil currency.

If US$ ever loses it's standing as the oil currency the whole world is fucked.

what will the real estate prices gonna do? They either have already or will shortly his bottom, now is a pretty good time to buy if you can get financed. Do not borrow on adjustable rates.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

NJ5 on 08 October 2008

"When the U.S. starts shifting away from oil"

When do you figure that could happen? I'm highly doubtful that people will move away from oil until they really have to (due to high prices). Therefore, I doubt there will be any sudden, sharp and long lasting changes to the price of oil.

U.S. demand for oil has already fallen due to high prices, but I don't think it was a permanent change... Since prices already went down a little, people will forget about conservation and will keep guzzling gas.

The recession should also be mentioned though, and this is something that can defniitely put a dent in oil demand due to slowing businesses and people getting poorer.

 



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