I don't see that from his post at all...all i see is that HD as a whole is not replacing SD completely any time soon.

Blu-Ray is a HD format that is not just used by SONY

Vhs and Dvd both existed at the same time as well, that doesn't mean eventually blu ray won't do better later on. All of those things listed are new in the market and take time to adopt as standard. It takes a while for every household to buy everything needed especially now. People who bash on blu ray are most likely the same people who would be defending hd dvd if it won. Just enjoy HD movies and see how it goes.

@ spidey_77

I think that's shortsighted. Most people today still don't own a HDTV, but with regard to new TV sales the bulk are HDTV sales in developed countries.

Rome wasn't build in a day. I don't understand what people were expecting. If it took the much acclaimed DVD 6 years to start outperforming VHS in sales and rentals (US, with relatively a lot of early adopters), why should Blu-Ray overtake DVD in only 2 years?

In any case the market for HD consoles, Blu-Ray movies, etc is heavily developing.

Some of his statements are really strange...

"Why would I want to buy a Blu-ray player and Blu-ray movies, which are more expensive than DVDs, when I can get the same basic experience (if not quite as enhanced) for little or no additional cost?"

The problem in this sentence is "the same basic experience". Ok... whether the guy is half blind, or has a poor TV set and a 2.1 sound system... Ok, let's say visual quality and sound doesn't count. The interactivity in bluray is NOT what I would call a "basic experience". And it will get better and better as time goes. So NO you won't get "the same basic experience", you get an enhanced experience, no matter what he says.

"Worse, why would I want to buy my library of movies all over again, once Blu-ray becomes the de facto leader in disc media? That's an added expense I'm not willing to incur."

Who said you had to buy you movie library again??? Bluray players play DVDs, and are often very good at it.On the other hand DVD players can't play VHS, and guess what? DVD still succeeded.
FAIL!

"Mobility is a key reason why DVD is such a success. You can buy a portable DVD player or pick up some movies, and play them practically anywhere you are. At this point, you simply can't do that with Blu-ray."

Yes... sure... I remember pretty well when I bought my first DVD movie, I could bring it to my friends and play it in their DVD player... sure... There were dvd players in every computer out there... sure... And a DVD player wasn't expensive at all...
This is only forgetting that Bluray is in its very first years. FAIL!

Well... all this article from CNET is a huge fail... I see the bluray shelves in stores growing bigger each time I check and it's selling better than DVD on it's launch.
Bluray won't disappear anytime soon, all the big movies release as bluray, and it lives very well side to side with DVD, so I really don't care of its sales.

Once again, this article just suck, and is probably written by a disappointed HD-DVD enthusiast.

I have a 46" LCD TV in my bedroom, the poorer quality of a DVD when compared with the BR is extremely noticeable on that.

Just a thought :)

When people get TVs that large on a massive scale, then your thought will have merit, mibuokami. :P

Is a BR-DVD movie worth $5 or $10 or $15 more than a regular DVD movie?

That's the burning question.

So long as there is a meaningful price differential between the formats, DVDs will be the format of choice of the "average" consumer (not the tech-savy consumer as represented on this board).

But even a tech-savy person may see advantages to having DVD over BluRay. To fully enjoy a BR-DVD, one must have a high-ended (or at least medium-end) home theater set -up. That might be fine for one room. But it is not as good for bedrooms or traveling right now. Thus, many people are likely to get an upscaling DVD player for the high-end room so they can use a regular DVD in all places.

There have been a lot of high-end formats that have not succeeded in reaching the mass-market (i.e., reel-to-reel tape for 1960s audiophiles). There have been a lot of technologically superior formats that lost out to lesser formats because of convenience (i.e., Beta). BluRay may be both (loser to DVD and downloads).

Mike from Morgantown

It seems to be a fairly routine too quick to reach a conclusion c-net article. But there is some truth to it. Blu-ray is by no means failing, but I still don't see how it will ever become the standard. The improvements over DVD are far too slight.

"slight quality upgrade when given an appropriate Television" I'm sorry, but way too many people are just not going to ever need, or even want, to make that switch.

And now that DVD's have become more integrated in to society than VHS ever was (laptops, minivans, multiple tv's, etc), even people that upgrade to Blu-ray will still have a desire to purchase DVD's.

Also, as stated, the field is becoming a bit more crowded with the digital download field. Especially when you factor in my personal prediction of Apple's new oft speculated videogame console, consisting of a completely revamped Apple TV as a digital download entertainment hub. But even without, plenty of the audience that Blu-ray targets are also being targeted by digital downloads.

Perhaps I'm just biased, not because of my videogame console, but because Blu-ray makes me a bit peeved. It sucks that the attempt at a replacement for the DVD medium doesn't improve upon the one glaring fault of DVDs. They scratch like crazy! Why we've been given a new format with a giant exposed flat surface of "please scratch here" utterly confounds me, and ensures we'll eventually be getting an entirely new format in the future.

So yes, Blu-ray will be around for a long time and sell a lot of movies, but it won't replace DVD the way VHS was.

Personally, I anticipate that Blu-Ray is destined to be caught somewhere between Laserdisc and DVD ...

It will (most likely) dominate the videophile/audiophile demographic, and it will (likely) never become something that the luddite demographic will ever care about.

This article fails to mention the 30 percent increases for the previous two weeks.

shame.