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Forums - General - Daily RealClearPolitics Presidential Election Tracking Thread

Obama has made some big strides since last week.  He is up about an entire point from +3.3 last week.  The Gallup/Rasmussen average is +5.5, the highest it has been in quite a few weeks.  Other big news is that Virginia is the bluest it has been since the beginning of the race.  North Carolina is much closer than it has ever been too.  New Hampshire has moved closer to red, however.

The Poll of Polls:

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/27 -- 47.9 43.6 Obama +4.3
Rasmussen Tracking 09/25 - 09/27 3000 LV 50 44 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking 09/24 - 09/26 2759 RV 49 44 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/24 - 09/26 914 RV 48 43 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/21 - 09/25 1000 LV 46 48 McCain +2
CBS News/NY Times 09/21 - 09/24 LV 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 09/22 - 09/23 689 LV 49 44 Obama +5

The electoral matchup:

Electoral College Obama McCain Spread
RCP Electoral Count 228 163 Obama +65
No Toss Up States 286 252 Obama +34

The battleground states:

Ohio (20) 45.1 46.3 McCain +1.2 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Florida (27) 46.0 47.6 McCain +1.6 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
Nevada (5) 45.3 47.0 McCain +1.7 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
New Hampshire (4) 46.7 45.4 Obama +1.3 Toss Up Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3
Virginia (13) 48.0 46.2 Obama +1.8 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
North Carolina (15) 45.0 48.2 McCain +3.2 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Wisconsin (10) 48.2 44.4 Obama +3.8 Toss Up Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Pennsylvania (21) 48.2 43.8 Obama +4.4 Toss Up Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Minnesota (10) 48.0 45.2 Obama +2.8 Toss Up Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
Missouri (11) 45.8 49.0 McCain +3.2 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
Indiana (11) 45.5 47.8 McCain +2.3 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Colorado (9) 50.2 44.8 Obama +5.4 Leaning Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4
Michigan (17) 48.9 42.3 Obama +6.6 Leaning Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
Washington (11) 48.8 42.8 Obama +6.0 Leaning Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
New Mexico (5) 50.3 44.3 Obama +6.0 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
New Jersey (15) 49.8 42.8 Obama +7.0 Leaning Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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Looks like this could come down to Colorado.



Ohio, Virginia and Colorado...it comes down to those three. McCain has to win all three of them.



Nevada could be important in a close call too. But I agree that Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia are the states to watch.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Numbers are updated for the day.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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New numbers. Obama widens gap.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Ohhh..... its getting VERY close in virginia.



Updated for the day. Some pretty big changes since last week.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson