TWRoO said: Well I was mainly replying to this sentence: "Without the PS2's Christmas spike, it would be very close to the PS2 too." but ok

yeah, in retrospect that was a silly sentence for me to use.

as null void as it is, that graph does look good though!

 So then, 3rd parties would only support sony's motion controller if the system in question is called playstation 4? I'm not getting your point...

And exactly what are the features of the new console supposed to be. A ps4 before wii's successor which is even more powerful or a console which is more wii-like and less powerful than ps3? Like I said, the way forward is FUNCTIONALITY not power. With its firmware, there's a bright light for ps3

 Then why bother spending the billions associated with launching a new system when ps3 = ps4. because a new name will sell more? Like I said, its important to note that "power" and "graphics" have always been selling points for consoles for previous gens. There was even a thread damning sony for overhyping the ps2's power. Why did they do that? Because thats what used to sell. The game has changed thanks to the wii. If wii graphics are good enough for this gen then the ps3's would be plenty enough for next gen. Any other functionality need can be added through firmware as we've already seen.

This gen can't really be compared to last. Like I said in the OP, the ps2 has't changed one bit since it launched in 1999/2000. Those who got the launch ps3 know how drastically it has changed in less than 2 years even while sticking to the same hardware.

You're still talking power for new consoles?

You're right, by sticking to the ps3 despite it's slow start, sony proves to 3rd parties that they can have faith in them. Launching ps4 early would only make ps4 = dreamcast.

PS3 will easily last 10 years. Even 12 years is possible. PSone lasted 12 years. PS2 will last up to 12 years, maybe longer. PS3 will follow the trend of long life spans of PS consoles. Sony is the world's leading electronics/ TV manufacturer company. TV's last a long time and PS consoles last a long time.

The PS1 was discontinued in early 2005, so it lasted 10 years and 4 months

The main problem however is you are comparing massively successful consoles, with what will at best be moderately successful with a clear and powerful competition.

Rol is saying perephrials which do not come as standard have never been hugely successful or supported well besides 1st party efforts. The theorhetical split-piece controller brought out for PS3 would not come standard with the console because the console has already launched.

So far the Balance board looks like it will be the first that breaks that rule.

This gen can't really be compared to last. Like I said in the OP, the ps2 has't changed one bit since it launched in 1999/2000. Those who got the launch ps3 know how drastically it has changed in less than 2 years even while sticking to the same hardware.
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This is the problem with the 10 year plan, the hardware. Read Moore's law. The next gen systems will be faster and could possible have dual gpu's. Who knows? But developers will migrate to the newer systems. Just look at the PSX and PS2 and you'll see that the majority of developers have moved own from each when the next gen systems were launched. Those platforms still had some support but not comparable to the next gen systems.

Power? Yes, but very relatively: Nintendo did Wii more than twice as powerful as GC, not a big jump, just enough to show at least a bit of improvement in graphics and, much more important, to support new functionalities. While this gen Sony and MS chose to do a very big jump in performance, this led to price problems for Sony and reliability ones for MS. Next gen a 4x performance increase wouldn't be such radical, following Moore's law you can expect in 4 years SINCE NOW (not since launch, obviously, that would take to almost the same launch price, unacceptable, especially for Sony) HW 4x as powerful to cost less than the current one NOW and consume less power, so neither Sony, nor MS will risk repeating the same errors: if compared to the jump from PS2 to PS3, a 4x power increase keeping the same architecture (both Cell and Xenon are modular and scalable multicore architectures, so sticking to them should be a good choice, especially after having spent an awful lot of money to develop them) is very conservative (this way Sony, for example, could launch at $300 a feature-rich model losing little or nothing at all on HW).

More power is needed to support new functionalities, more important than graphics, while at least keeping the same graphics quality, as worse graphics than previous gen wouldn't be accepted. But while for "Wii style gamers" (let's not call them casual, it's more complex than this) the current PS3 and XB360 graphics quality should be more than enough, MS and Sony cannot risk losing their current user base, so a reasonable, not mad and excessive, power increase is still necessary. More computing power, besides, is not to be used exclusively for graphics, you can use it for better AI, more accurate physics engines, the ability to have more computer controlled characters simultaneously, more object to interact with, etc.

I agree that more power just to show it is now a dead fashion from the past, next time Sony and MS must show they have a deeper approach and can use power for at least the same things Nintendo uses it for, but much better if they can invent something new and original too. But never again a power increase such to force outlandishly high prices and worse still losing money, that's for sure.

Edit: as I wrote before, I'll repeat it, the 4-5yrs from now PS4 launch doesn't deny the 10yrs plan, PS3 will have 3-4 years of life as lower end model, perhaps even 5 years if it will manage to resist on the market 11 years, and I think that a console with lots of games and BD player built-in, once priced under $130, like it will be in its later years, could really become an evergreen, just like PS2 did.