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Forums - General - PoliCHARTZ - Thread of U.S. Politics & the Presidential Election

NJ5 said:
4 years ago, Nov 02:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html

Look how much difference a day made:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html

The big difference to this year is that a lot more states are colored as "strong" than than 4 years ago.

 

You're right, McCain might win.  That doesn't mean he should; and is all the more reason to get out and vote.   The problem with your argument though, is that the 2004 election went back and forth and hovered really close to each other.  This election has seen one side winning significantly all but a few days of polling right after the Republican Convention.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

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steven787 said:
NJ5 said:
4 years ago, Nov 02:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html

Look how much difference a day made:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html

The big difference to this year is that a lot more states are colored as "strong" than than 4 years ago.
You're right, McCain might win.  That doesn't mean he should; and is all the more reason to get out and vote.   The problem with your argument though, is that the 2004 election went back and forth and hovered really close to each other.  This election has seen one side winning significantly all but a few days of polling right after the Republican Convention.

Plus what I said:  "Bush had like twice as many "strong" states as his opponent.  Interestingly, so does Obama."



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

I forgot to mention, if McCain wins it won't be with a popular majority. Straight popular elections wouldn't be good either, unless we also started run-off elections and eliminated party financed campaigns.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

It's going to be a close election.



2009 World Series Champions:  New York Yankees

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/other-views/story/750521.html

Unity, hope must conquer division, hate

lpitts@miamiherald.com

The killers would have worn top hats. Having already murdered 102 African Americans, 14 by beheading, they would have driven at top speed toward Barack Obama, leaning from the windows of their vehicle, dressed in top hats and white tuxedoes, firing guns.

That was the plan, according to law enforcement officials who disrupted it a few days ago. Now the alleged conspirators -- white supremacists Paul Schlesselman, 18, and Daniel Cowart, 20 -- are in federal custody, an appropriately bizarre coda for the presidential campaign of 2008.

I mean, it's fitting, isn't it, that the campaign end with yet another appeal to fear, yet another portrayal of the Illinois senator as Not One of Us? It makes sense, after two years of viral e-mails, blog postings, talk radio rants and Fox News reports depicting Obama as a Communist socialist radical Christian secret Muslim black militant-marrying atheist-raised terrorist fist-bumping America-hating Manchurian candidate trained to subvert the United States from within.

Well, if that's what some folks think he is, let me tell you what I hope he is.

I will preface with a line from Gil Scott-Heron. The singer and poet used to say that people often asked him what he thought of the 1960s. His reply: I personally think the '60s are over.

Me, I'm not so sure. Indeed, when I consider the four presidential campaigns preceeding this one, it's hard not to regard them as an extended debate over that era. Those campaigns, after all, turned largely on questions of drug use, feminism, Vietnam, draft dodging, anti-war protests and other issues Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey would have found instantly recognizable.

I'm reminded how a young man told me a few years ago that he loathed Bill Clinton because the former president was -- and I quote -- ''a hippie.'' I was floored. Love Clinton or loathe him, that is, putting it mildly, an unlikely description of a man who spent the hippie era as a Rhodes Scholar and Yale University student of law.

But it makes sense if you buy the premise that we have been re-litigating the '60s here, seeking a balance of values between the freedom some of us won and the ''good old days'' others of us lost, between the whispered promise of change and the shouted, strident threat.

Indeed, if you buy the premise, then John McCain's recent attempts to conflate Obama with William Ayers are hardly surprising.

Whatever you think of the '60s, though, one thing is undeniable: They tore us apart, ripped American society to pieces and threw those pieces in the air so they rained down like confetti, falling into new configurations, nothing where it used to be. It was an angry time, those who found stability -- identity -- in the old configurations fighting those intoxicated by the possibilities of the new.

Which is why some regarded the presidential candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy with such ineffable hope. His was a promise to reconcile the shredded pieces, to make them -- make us -- whole again. Then he walked through that hotel kitchen, and we lost everything that might have been.

Forty years later, we are still angry, still sifting through confetti pieces, trying to find a way to make them whole. And here comes Barack Obama wanting to be president.

He has an economic plan, sure. He has a healthcare plan, yes. He has a promise to end the war in Iraq, fine.

Those are important matters, certainly. But when I look at this guy and reflect on the hate I see in my country, the lack of purpose I see in my country, the division and fear I see in my country, those concerns feel distinctly secondary.

You know what I hope Barack Obama is? I hope he is reconciliation -- the end of the 1960s at long last. And the beginning of something new.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

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All the CNN analysts in the Situation Room predict a win for Obama:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/02/strategists-predict-obama-victory-big-gains-for-democrats/



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

What A McCain Win Looks Like...

This was by far the most common McCain victory scenario, occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations this afternoon:


...this would be a boring ol' map. Obama wins everything that either Al Gore or John Kerry won. McCain wins everything else. Problem for McCain: this becomes a losing map if he loses Colorado, and -- although I think Sean's maybe a little too quick to call the state for the blue team -- Obama's lead in early voting there will make things tough for McCain.

The four scenarios that follow were the next most common, occurring about 40 times each:



...this is the scenario that Democrats are terrified about, losing Pennsylvania while winning Colorado and Virginia (which leaves them stuck at 268 electoral votes), but it occurred far less frequently than the 2004-style map that we discussed above.

Then we get some variations on a theme, involving McCain winning some combination of these states (CO/VA/PA), plus occasionally also New Hampshire:







Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

Who knows, maybe the traditional Republican supports will show up more than Democratic voters.  Better go vote, no matter who you support...  Obama supporters remember to ask for the day off or ask to be late/leave early; the lines will be long.  Republicans, don't worry, I know Michelle Malkin says good hard working republicans don't want to do that, so don't.  (BTW, Malkin is totally 100% representative of American Values... /sarcasm)



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

Oh no, Obama just lost the election... McCain got this endorsement:

Too bad all the popular Republicans are jumping ship.  (To a certain californian: nationally popular, please don't correct me.)

The former bodybuilder also teased the rail-thin Mr Obama. "He needs to do something about those skinny legs, make him do some squats and some bicep curls to build up those scrawny little arms. If only we could do something about putting some meat on his ideas," said Mr Schwarzenegger.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

These last few days are so long...its like the last mile of a marathon.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Jeffrey Ross:

If McCain had sex with an intern it wouldn't be a scandal, it would be a miracle.

The only thing I don't like about Obama, is his middle name. Hussein... Who am I? Jeffrey Hitler Ross... Take half a day off, go to a court house and have that changed.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.