Yes, since vehicular homicide is a possible effect of a crime... partially based on that.

I think taking you through the thought process is easier in steps.

1) Vehicular homicide/manslaugher is a rare accident that happens in drunk driving.

2) Say your chances are like.. 1 in 20... (even though it's rarer.)

3)  So there is a 1 in 20 chance you will be in the way of the drunk driver.

4) Now we want to see how much your chance is decreased by having a human shield. 

5) They have about an equal chance of getting hit by a drunk driver.  So a 1 in 20 shot.

6) Now for the human shield to protect you... they would need to be in the same area as you... so if they weren't there... you would be hit and vice versa.

If you weren't there and they get hit by someone... there is no gurantee the drunk driver is going to hit someone else.  In other words.  It's not a crime like robbery that happens becauase it's targeted and people choose to do it.  It's just the effect of another crime.

7) So the chances that said person will act as a human shield to save you are at best 1 in 400.  Since there is a 1 in 400 chance that someone will roll a 1 twice in a row on a 20 sided die.

8) So instead of a  20 in 400 chance of getting hit you now have a 19 in 400 chance of getting hit.

9)  Given the choice between 2 20 in 400 chances of getting hit or 3 19 in 400 chances of getting hit... which are you going to choose?   The first option is far safer then the second option.

10) Note that i'd say that illegal aliens comit drunk 50% less crime rate wise is probably very generous.

I'm still actually suspicious of the accuracy of that model.  Isn't it more like the DD rolls to see how many people he encounters and whom (this would be the part affected by POPDEN), then rolls to see in what order he encounters them, and then rolls to see if he hits in order of appearance? 

So with 2 potential targets, and since we're assuming they all encounter each of us separately (negating the first set of rolls) but stop if they hit the first person, the chances for each DD to hit me would be decreased by (.5*.05) (or 1 in 40, not 1 in 400), right?  (Due to a 50/50 chance of him encountering the II first and, if so, a 1/20 chance he hits the II and stops, before encountering me.)

2 DD and me:  .0975 (according to the calculator I used) (instead of .01)
3 DD and me and II:  .1426 * (1-.025)^3 ~= .1426 * .927 ~= .1322 (instead of .1425)

This math seems better to me, although I'm not positive I correctly factored in the decreased probability.  Since I'm happier with this calculation, and it still supports your point, I'll tentatively concede that the VM crime rate would go down.  If you still think your math is right and still want to defend it even though it's a moot point, I'll be happy to continue with that discussion.  If not, no problem.

[edit:  Also, since the non-II DD rate in our models is 66.6%, and the II DD rate is 50%, does that really count as 50% lower?  I wouldn't think so... [edit2:  I'd think it was 25%.  4/6 vs. 3/6; IIDDR = 3/4 of NIIDDR, so IIDDR is 25% lower than NIIDDR, or NIIDDR is 33.3% higher than IIDDR.  None of there are close to indicating a difference of 50% except obviously the raw number of DDs due to smaller II population.]]

Actually i see your point on the math.

I guess you would have to assume you were going to be hit too.  What i was showing I guess was just how unlikely a situation it would be that both of you would even be out at the same time to be hit at each time.

However it is also missing the factor that the first time if you don't get hit.  He might, and then you aren't protected anymore.  Something i missed as well too.

Being a nerd myself I can say this:

I love how nerds talk about drunk driving in terms of tossing polyhedral dice.

This isn't D&D, it's real life and death.

It's the easiest way to describe probability.

Drunk Driving rather low percentage of things going bad is one of it's most deceptive and troublesome aspects.

Since complications only rarely happen people don't treat the crime seriously enough, and people are more willing to do it... yet that occasional "Critical miss" is all it takes to ruin numerous lives.

The easiest way to describe it to nerds.

Most "real" people wouldn't even know what d20 means.

Well yeah, but I mean... we're argueing drunk driving statistics on a website about videogame sales in a thread about politics...

The nerd thing seemed like a safe assumption or at least the familiarity with a D20 seemed likely.

Though honestly i've only played like 2 games of D&D in my life.

I seriously stopped reading this thread once I saw shit like "VM down IRT DD) IRT POP." Whoa, then calculators were getting rocked in this thread?

I never played a regular D&D game, but I remember being really little and my whole family of 5 sitting at the dinner table to play THIS:



Looking back, I guess I was raised into nerd-dom and I don't know how I didn't get into D&D after that. I had a brief stint of Magic: The Gathering a few years later, and then it's been 100% Nintendo nerd for me.

EDIT: I just looked it up on Wikipedia, and apparently HeroQuest came out in the U.S. in 1990, so I was 7, and my sisters were 4 and 10.  Hahahaha.  Okay, I've discovered it.  The exact thing that turned me into a huge nerd was... my dad really got me into Hack.  That's it.  I think that paved the way for all my of my future nerdalities.

I've still never rolled a 20 sided die though.

Hero Quest. Awesome i still have that. Never had enough friends to play it though.  I also had a game with a HUUUGE Map and like one side was Heroes, and the other monsters... and the two head units were a Canon and an Ogre.  Only my dad would play it with me, and the map was so huge that my dad would make smaller maps for me...

which i perfered cause i ended up splitting the troops into smaller different factions anyway.

Cause I didn't really have any nerd friends as a kid... which was the problem.

They loved videogames sure, but closest they got to D&D was Monopoly or Scattegories, which was both murder since in Scattegories people would come up with the stupidest shit so it basically wasn't a game so much as it was a contest to see who can be stubborn enough long enough for each and every point...

and in Monopoly people would keep doing shit like giving people passes when they were going to go bankrupt on their land... apparently not understanding the premise of monopoly. Just a "Well next few times i land on your property i just won't have to pay ok. ALWAYS dragged the games out.

Here we go Battle Masters!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_Masters