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Forums - General - American Economy (thus world economy)

This is not good here in the U.S. and it's looking worse and worse.

I can't get into too much details but you gotta read this guy.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

I've been reading him for a long time and he is right on all the time.

i took money out of the mutual funds last year and I could have lost 15% of that money.

It'll shock most of you.

U.S. govenernment getting involved is not a good thing either - it only prolongs what is inevitable  - depression.

I think some things need to be done (that will never be done);  raise interest rates now;  tariffs on foreign goods ( we need to produce); drill for oil but need alternative source; do whatever to lower the dollar (for export); Get rid of the minimum wage (let the markets decide); govt to stop bailing out banks.

Democrats will mess with it more than the republicans would but either way some drastic changes must take place.

we are 9 trillion dollars in debt, but if you add personal debts to that 9, then it soars to 99 trillion.

who will pay for this?

btw, when U.S. economy tanks this guy believes it will this year, then rest of the world's economy will hurt badly as well.

China's stock market went down around 65% just this year.

anyways, read his stuff.

Read also this article about the bailout

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2198

Lastly, read what market ticker said at the end of last year.  it's scary how good this guy is.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/134-The-Year-In-Review-And-a-Look-Ahead-for-2008.html

 

sorry for the long post but I hope you enjoy reading these stuff.



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Yeah, the American economy will probably not get better anytime soon. Too much outstanding debt. I expect within the next year oil prices will start to rise significantly again, either due to some external circumstance or due to the depreciation of the dollar. This will make everything even worse.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

depreciation of the dollar would be good for the U.S.
but you are right, it will get worse before it gets better. but it will get better. i'm just worried about the worse part.



Coca-Cola said:
depreciation of the dollar would be good for the U.S.
but you are right, it will get worse before it gets better. but it will get better. i'm just worried about the worse part.

 

 Russia is closing in on us. I wouldn't be surprised if something happened. I think this fits under the category of worse.




I was expecting the op to be a picture of dog poop.

I'm disappointed.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

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Depreciation is good in some ways (such as when it comes to exports), but it has a lot of negative effects on an economy, especially on one like our own which relies so heavily on importing goods (and we import just about EVERYTHING in this country).

The added cost of having to pay more to import goods (which is made even worse because China does not allow its currency to fluctuate under normal market conditions) will offset just about any gain the U.S. economy would receive from increased exports.

China's economy is growing exponentially, and will probably pass our own by 2020. This will probably be accelerated by the slowing of the U.S. economy.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Removing minimum wage is going to improve the economy? How so? Employers will make the wages whatever they want and lower class workers and families will suffer because of it. Should the citizens suffer because the government has made bad decisions about its country's money?

And without following your link, I don't give much credibility to a man who believes that the U.S. economy will "tank" within this year (in other words, the next 3 months), especially with Christmas approaching. Maybe the nation will see poor year over year growth, and maybe the economy will even shrink (but that's entirely unlikely). Yet...how is it going to "tank?" Maybe you can call doom and gloom in the next 5 to 10 years, but right now, there's no reason to believe that the global economy will somehow collapse.

What else can I say though? Doom theories are popular, and every cynical person who thinks they understand the economy is calling for the end of civilization. I'm not saying that we won't fall on hard times, but the United States, and especially other parts of the world, have gone through far harder times than slowed economic growth or a mild recession.



 

 

what if freddie and fannie crashed?



blackbird3216 said:
what if freddie and fannie crashed?

Government won't let it happen because the results would be catastrophic.  It would be much worse than letting one of the major car companies in Detroit go bankrupt (which would probably be a good thing in actuality).

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Coca-Cola said:

I think some things need to be done (that will never be done);  raise interest rates now;  tariffs on foreign goods ( we need to produce); drill for oil but need alternative source; do whatever to lower the dollar (for export); Get rid of the minimum wage (let the markets decide); govt to stop bailing out banks.

 

I agree eliminating the minimum wage would be beneficial. That, however, is the only thing I agree with you on. Raising tariffs would probably be one of the worst things for this economy. If you truly believe we are heading for a depression, then we should look at the previous depression and avoid the mistakes that were made then. One of the more damaging mistakes was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. This was the catalyst for a collapse in international trade. We cannot enact a tariff and expect others not to retaliate; enacting tariffs would be economic suicide. What would be beneficial to the economy, would be the elimination of the permanent tariff system. We are hurting our poorest consumers and the poorest nations by continuing these disastrous tariffs.

Also, on the issue of production…how much do you want us to produce? We are the world’s leading manufacturer and our output levels in 2007 set an all-time record. If we need to increase production, what are we going to produce and for whom? It is true that we have lost some manufacturing jobs, but our productivity has increased exponentially. That is to blame for the loss in manufacturing jobs and not outsourcing or foreign trade.

You want to depreciate the dollar’s value, but you also want to raise interest rates? Raising interest rates would increase the dollar’s value. If you want the value of the dollar to depreciate, you would lower interest rates.