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Forums - General - Most polls show minor bump for McCain after Convention

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

As I mentioned last night in the other thread, the USA Today/Gallup poll has more often than not been a little off base.  Its margin of error is + or - 3 points, which is well outside the average of the other polls in the same timeframe.

Average including USA Today/Gallup poll: McCain +2.9

Average excluding that poll: McCain +1.7

RCP Average 09/05 - 09/07 -- 48.3 45.4 McCain +2.9
ABC News/Wash Post 09/05 - 09/07 LV 49 47 McCain +2
CBS News 09/05 - 09/07 655 RV 46 44 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 - 09/07 823 LV 54 44 McCain +10
CNN 09/05 - 09/07 942 RV 48 48 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 3000 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 924 RV 44 44 Tie
Gallup Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 2733 RV 49 44 McCain +5


We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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EDIT Screw polls. (beat Stof to it) http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1213844

EDIT (felt bad for not contributing)

Expects polls to go up and down on both sides of the border as sheep poll followers change who they plan to vote for based on the latest polls. They just serve the purpose of filling time in 24 hour news networks with something easy to talk about (no need to do actual journalism).



I think the Sarah Palin pick negated Obama's bump, and noting happened after the Republican convention to stop McCain's. They are bumps and come back down.

Wait until a week or so for everything to settle to see where things really are.



Dogs Rule said:

EDIT Screw polls. (beat Stof to it) http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1213844

EDIT (felt bad for not contributing)

Expects polls to go up and down on both sides of the border as sheep poll followers change who they plan to vote for based on the latest polls. They just serve the purpose of filling time in 24 hour news networks with something easy to talk about (no need to do actual journalism).

 

There are other reasons why such a large focus on polling data is (primarily) meaningless ... With the way the electoral college works an individual can become president with around 25% of the popular vote (less if you include third party candidates) and, when you factor in margin of error, enough states are so close that either candidate could win.



Gallup and Rasmussen are consider to be the 2 best. (+5 and +1)

Basically a statistical tie, with a very slight edge to McCain.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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bigjon said:
Gallup and Rasmussen are consider to be the 2 best. (+5 and +1)

Basically a statistical tie, with a very slight edge to McCain.

I completely agree with bigjon for once!

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Thank you Dogs Rule.

I see there's no need for me here any more.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

Nice, McCain is dishing out some win. Obama is just an unqualified socialist.



PC Gamer
Ickalanda said:
Nice, McCain is dishing out some win. Obama is just an unqualified socialist.

Nevermind reality which states that both Obama and McCain are right-wing conservative on the political spectrum.



I updated to add a few more polls, which happen to show the same trend. McCain is probably averaging around a +2 boost over Obama after the convention. Not anywhere near as big of a boost as Bush got last year, but still pretty significant because McCain has not been in the positive numbers consistenly for a very long time.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson