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Forums - General - Latest Gallup Poll has McCain leading by 10 points

HappySqurriel on 08 September 2008
Kasz216 said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Every poll ever only calls landlines, because it's illegal for them to call your smellular and use your minutes.

So that gives them a lean towards old people who don't have cell phones.

Since Obama has the youth vote in a death grip, that means the polls are slightly biased against Obama.

Despite this, McCain's bounce was fucking huge.

Now the real campaign begins and we get some debates. I'M PUMPED.

The youth vote?

Anyone who builds a vote on the young end up disapointed.  If Obama wins it won't be because of the Youth.   Most of my friends i know who even love politics don't vote.

They always forget it.  Some minor inconvience makes it too much trouble, or there high.

I'm like... the only guy i know my age that votes consistantly.

Seriously, voting in general leans towards older people.

Young people never seem to ever care.  I mean.  They always have strong opinions, but never come through.  Kinda pisses me off honestly.

 

That, and I think the youth vote is (heavly) misrepresented and misunderstood ...

Depending on the region you live in, only (about) 60% to 80% of teens graduate highschool and of those only (about) 40% actually go to college (including community colleges) and university. When people talk about the youth vote the tend to go to colleges and universities because they are filled with (mostly) young voters.

On top of ths there were a few things about politics that I noticed while I was in university, different faculties generally were very different politically (Science & Engineering tended to be more 'Conservative' while the Humanities, Social Sciences and Arts tended to be more 'Liberal'), and (due to several factors) people in the more 'Liberal' faculties were generally much more politically active.

What this all means together is that the place people use as a "Gauge" for the youth vote is not (really) representative of how the youth vote really looks.

 



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HappySqurriel on 08 September 2008
NJ5 said:
HappySqurriel said:
NJ5 said:
Lolcislaw said:
Well whatever people say, for McCain being so close to Obama in Polls it's a success, everyone expected Democrats Landslide in November, yet it's gonna be close.

@NJ5 , Republicans needed someone like palin to secure support that Gave Bush Victory in 2000 and 2004. But McCain is a different story then Bush and people are not voting for Palin to become president, but a VP with very limited powers.


McCain is 72 years old and had cancer twice. Seems to me that Palin is not unlikely to become President.

Even if we ignore that, it's still quite amusing that Palin would have this effect in the polls.

 

I could be wrong but I suspect that the imapact was so large because a large portion of 'undecided' voters where conservative-Republicans (who were really unhappy with John McCain being the candidate) and the announcement of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate (really) excited these voters without scaring McCain's current base.


That definitely makes sense. I just hope that a significant part of McCain's base gets informed about Palin and realises how dangerous this woman is if she becomes president. Let's face it, some of the information about this woman's actions and opinions is downright scary.

 

The same can be said about both Obama and Biden ...

In fact, I think there is even more of a risk of Obama and Biden taking the country in an extreme direction because (with the house and senate being controlled by Democrats) they will be entirely unopposed.



NJ5 on 08 September 2008

What information is there about Obama/Biden which is that scary?

I'm eager to learn more, even though I heavily suspect that they are the lesser of two evils in this election.

 



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Tispower1 on 08 September 2008
tombi123 said:
Timmah! said:
tombi123 said:
Palin's politics are a joke. She is insane. If McCain died in office and Palin became president, don't expect any support from Europe.

Lets hope for the sake of the World that Obama wins the election.

 

I don't think we're that concerned with what you blokes in the UK think of our candidate. We generally try to choose what's best for America. Thanks for the well reasoned argument, calling someone insane with no basis is just brilliant.

Well when you have a dead Bear in your office space/home, I consider that insane lol. 

Even though I am a liberal left, I was starting to leaning towards McCain, until he announced Palin as his VP. She is very right wing, even by America's standards. 

I know you are voting for what is best for America. That is why I said for the sake of the World lets hope Obama wins. The EU is a powerful organization. Close links between the USA and Europe is definetly a good thing for the World.

 

 

I could care less. The UK has always had a Euroskeptic view, and always had a 'special relationship' with America. I disagree with it, as it seemed to be the only reason we went into Iraq, but for the sake of the election, it won't make any difference with UK-US relations. As long as we get our F-35s for our upcoming supercarriers I don't care

@ NJ5, I'd consider the killing of innocents worse than rape, therefore I agree with Palin.



bardicverse on 08 September 2008
Kasz216 said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Every poll ever only calls landlines, because it's illegal for them to call your smellular and use your minutes.

So that gives them a lean towards old people who don't have cell phones.

Since Obama has the youth vote in a death grip, that means the polls are slightly biased against Obama.

Despite this, McCain's bounce was fucking huge.

Now the real campaign begins and we get some debates. I'M PUMPED.

The youth vote?

Anyone who builds a vote on the young end up disapointed. If Obama wins it won't be because of the Youth. Most of my friends i know who even love politics don't vote.

They always forget it. Some minor inconvience makes it too much trouble, or there high.

I'm like... the only guy i know my age that votes consistantly.

Seriously, voting in general leans towards older people.

Young people never seem to ever care. I mean. They always have strong opinions, but never come through. Kinda pisses me off honestly.

 

Directly on point! Young people just want to piss and moan about being oppressed, they never actually take up a cause to change it, except for a select few. We have football and videogames and keg parties, why bother with who's running the country? =P

Its exactly that why Obama is set to fail - too reliant on the young vote. The repubs come out and vote because they simply don't want a democrat. The old timers come out to vote for the guy who's going to preserve their retirement benefits, and the working class comes out to vote for the guy who's not going to raise taxes. If you notice the trend, its always the major cities that go democrat, and most other places go republican. Most of the liberals live in the cities, and the conservatives live out in the other 80% of the nation. It's quite difficult for a democrat to win the election. They would have to be doing something drastically major in favor of the citizens to pull the vote. Honestly, if Gore couldn't pull it out in 2000 (which we all know might actually have been the case, but thats another conversation) I doubt that Obama can this year.

 



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HappySqurriel on 08 September 2008
NJ5 said:

What information is there about Obama/Biden which is that scary?

I'm eager to learn more, even though I heavily suspect that they are the lesser of two evils in this election.

 

 

I'll let cnet tell you about Joe Biden http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10024163-38.html
 

Obama is a lot like Palin in that they're both members from the more extreme sides of their parties, and they haven't been in politics to really know who they are ... In my opinion Obama is far worse for this because he (essentially) started running for president as soon as he got into the senate so it is quite possible that his entire voting record was based on the optics of how it would look durring a campaign; this is how he ended up voting along party lines 97% of the time, and voting with Bush only 40% of the time



Tispower1 on 08 September 2008
HappySqurriel said:
NJ5 said:

What information is there about Obama/Biden which is that scary?

I'm eager to learn more, even though I heavily suspect that they are the lesser of two evils in this election.

 

 

I'll let cnet tell you about Joe Biden http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10024163-38.html

Obama is a lot like Palin in that they're both members from the more extreme sides of their parties, and they haven't been in politics to really know who they are ... In my opinion Obama is far worse for this because he (essentially) started running for president as soon as he got into the senate so it is quite possible that his entire voting record was based on the optics of how it would look durring a campaign; this is how he ended up voting along party lines 97% of the time, and voting with Bush only 40% of the time

 

That's like horrible



akuma587 on 08 September 2008

Surprise, surprise. Last night I said that the USA Today/Gallup poll is usually way off from other polls. So here is the average of every other poll taken during the same timeframe:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

McCain +1.5

CNN 09/05 - 09/07 942 RV 48 48 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 3000 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 924 RV 44 44 Tie
Gallup Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 2733 RV 49 44 McCain +5



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

The Ghost of RubangB on 08 September 2008
Kasz216 said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Every poll ever only calls landlines, because it's illegal for them to call your smellular and use your minutes.

So that gives them a lean towards old people who don't have cell phones.

Since Obama has the youth vote in a death grip, that means the polls are slightly biased against Obama.

Despite this, McCain's bounce was fucking huge.

Now the real campaign begins and we get some debates. I'M PUMPED.

The youth vote?

Anyone who builds a vote on the young end up disapointed.  If Obama wins it won't be because of the Youth.   Most of my friends i know who even love politics don't vote.

They always forget it.  Some minor inconvience makes it too much trouble, or there high.

I'm like... the only guy i know my age that votes consistantly.

Seriously, voting in general leans towards older people.

Young people never seem to ever care.  I mean.  They always have strong opinions, but never come through.  Kinda pisses me off honestly.

 

 

I don't think Obama is building his campaign entirely on the youth vote.  But I think the youth vote will break records yet again.

Also, just about everybody I know my age is voting.  A couple were assholes, one friend said he didn't want to register because then he'd have to do jury duty.  But then they got him anyway through the DMV, so he registered.  And he's voted every time since.

But yeah, overall young people are assholes when it comes to voting.

 



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Kasz216 on 08 September 2008
tombi123 said:
Lolcislaw said:
tombi123 said:
Palin's politics are a joke. She is insane. If McCain died in office and Palin became president, don't expect any support from Europe.

Lets hope for the sake of the World that Obama wins the election.

Sorry but if Barrack wins the election, America goes more into isolationist direction, he is not interested in Anti Missle Programme, he will allow Russia to grow stronger, He does not care about Iran. Sorry but if Obama wins don't expect any help from America.

 

 

He does care about Iran and Russia. But rather than declare war on Iran, he would talk with them. I can see why Iran feels threatened by the USA, when the US government is supplying Israel with $$$.

You must have seen the response Obama got when he visited Europe. McCain wouldn't have got that kind of responce and if Palin did the same and her policies were widely known, she would have probably got booed. Under Obama, the USA and Europe would have a close relationship.  

That's not what he said in his big speach in Israel.