Congrats on finding one time in July when they were way off.

I just went through the polls for the last several months, and the USA Today/Gallup poll is not as far off as you would suggest in the vast majority of cases, and in many cases they had Obama higher than other polls, you found one instance to suit your argument.

Is it not significant that on Tuesday of last week, USA Today/Gallup had Obama up by 7, but as now, the same poll has McCain up by 10? That's a 17 point swing on the same poll within just a few days. I generally am not a fan of polls, but I saw a 17 point swing as somewhat significant.

Here's the data from the last round, they were pretty close then. Looks like CNN was way off, though.

I am just saying that they have been inaccurate in the past, and I cited another poll which I will usually exclude (included in the ones you posted) that is favorable to Obama too often (Hotline/FD).

The poll may very well be valid, but it has been pretty far from the mark in the past. I am just saying that it isn't the best poll to go by. If it came up with +7 for Obama I would probably tell you it was a little off too.

Rasmussen and Gallup are the polls to go by, so if they give McCain high numbers tomorrow then by all means jump and celebrate.

Hey what's that sound?

Its the sound of Palin Stealing Obama's thunder.

Obama has done a good job not making it a central part of his campaign, but his skin color is creating a lot of the buzz in America.

He's young, he's black, he represents change, since most politicians are old, white men.

Well now that Palin is in the picture, she is the ace in McCain's hole. She's young, she's a woman (and hot), and she represents something different as well.

All the buzz Obama has had for being "different" has been pretty much canceled out by Palin's buzz.

That's my opinion. Meh.

Every poll ever only calls landlines, because it's illegal for them to call your smellular and use your minutes.

So that gives them a lean towards old people who don't have cell phones.

Since Obama has the youth vote in a death grip, that means the polls are slightly biased against Obama.

Despite this, McCain's bounce was fucking huge.

Now the real campaign begins and we get some debates. I'M PUMPED.

I thought the US had learned something from the 8-year Bush era, but unfortunately it seems that an unexperienced gun-toting, book-banning politician can still significantly increase support for a campaign.

Anywhere in the rest of the Western world, Palin would be viewed as a joke candidate.

Well whatever people say, for McCain being so close to Obama in Polls it's a success, everyone expected Democrats Landslide in November, yet it's gonna be close.

@NJ5 , Republicans needed someone like palin to secure support that Gave Bush Victory in 2000 and 2004. But McCain is a different story then Bush and people are not voting for Palin to become president, but a VP with very limited powers.

McCain is 72 years old and had cancer twice. Seems to me that Palin is not unlikely to become President.

Even if we ignore that, it's still quite amusing that Palin would have this effect in the polls.

I could be wrong but I suspect that the imapact was so large because a large portion of 'undecided' voters where conservative-Republicans (who were really unhappy with John McCain being the candidate) and the announcement of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate (really) excited these voters without scaring McCain's current base.

For America's sake lets hope this doesnt hold.

Sure, thats the stradegy. It also includes the fact that she has more executive experience. The campaign took a very smart risk and it's paying off. They wanted someone that beats Obama on almost every front.

Both campaigns have shown a high level of competency, but I think the McCain campaign flubbed when they expressed the exact same sentiment you just did. They said this campaign "was not going to be on issues but on image", in particular the McCain campaign has to ruin Obama's image.