That's because the polls don't say what you (or most people) think they say ... The margin of error is a bounding on the underlying statistic, which (in this case) means that it is a bounding on the results you would expect if you performed the exact same poll with everyone in the United States.

Unfortunately, every poll has their own little biases which prevent them from matching other polls ...

In Canadian politics, one thing I have noticed is a lot of "Push-Polls" which are not about capturing opinions as they are about forming them. You will take a survey and people will ask questions like "Does the NDP's extreme stance on Global Warming consern you?" or "Is the Liberal's soft stance on violent crime make you fell safe" or "On a scale of 1 to 5 how big of a consern is the Conservative's Hidden Agenda?"

Facts are everyone expected Democrats to win a landslide, now it is not looking so bright for them and Obama he is still a favourite but it's not going to be easy. He needs to clarify his policies and message to the public, something that McCain does.

Every poll that's outside of the margin of error does show an Obama landslide. It's either Obama or a tie.

When McCain gets out of the margin of error, it'll be news.

Also, in polls about Congress, the Democrats have a way huger lead than Obama does. As of today, all the polls show that people think Democrats would better handle the War on Terror, and national security, the traditional strong points of the Republican party.

It's like the people who do support McCain still want a Democratic Congress to hold him back, because they don't want more of what happened with Bush.

What a difference a day makes, twenty four little hours... like the sun and the flowers, when there used to be rain.

It's heaven when you, put romance on your menu.  What a difference a day makes, and the difference is....

you.

Democrats will win by a landslide this year.

It just so happens that the presidential race will be a little closer than the congressional races.

No way!  You mean bigjon posted the smallest Obama lead instead of an average or the whole list?  SHQCKING.

Haha, naw I'm sure it was just the first one he saw and he was too excited to look for others. 

Thurs. September 02 - RCP

National USA Today/Gallup* Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7

Another one. That's two significant bumps apparently. hehe

Now Obama is up by +6.4 in the RCP average. That's the highest it has been in MONTHS.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/29 - 09/01 -- 49.2 42.8 Obama +6.4

Gallup Tracking 08/30 - 09/01 2772 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 08/30 - 09/01 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD 08/29 - 08/31 RV 48 39 Obama +9
CNN 08/29 - 08/31 927 RV 49 48 Obama +1
CBS News 08/29 - 08/31 781 RV 48 40 Obama +8

What's really amazing is how quickly the 2-4% undecided voters dissappeared (became supporters of a candidate) 1 day after the anouncement of Palin.

That's not necessarily because of Bush, that's just the way this country works.

Reagan? Democratic Congress.

Clinton? One term, then Republican Congress.

Bush? One term, then Democratic Congress (stalled slightly because of war).

We like our gridlocks. Personally, I think they're great. The less the government accomplishes, the better. If Obama wins, we'll almost surely be looking at a Republican Congress in 2012 again.

*high fives the Founding Fathers for being so bloody smart*