Microsoft will be the first to release a new console. I can guarentee it

Not exactly a bold prediction ...

Dude, you've swallowed way too many Sony marketing material.

The ps3 doesn't have the horsepower to handle 1080p games (unless we're talking about specific games with few/simpler elements onscreen), so it's already lagging behind display technology (how many of you have 1080p TV's?). The GPU is already outdated (a 2006? design afterall and GPU's update twice a year), el cheapo 8800GT's outperform significatively the ps3 and they are around 100 bucks now. Finally, the much talked about cell cpu has yet to prove it's worth as far as gaming is concerned and it's supposed "future awesome potential" only exists in PR. The blue-ray player is slow and pimping the easy hard drive serviceability just because most games require installation sounds more like apologetic talk rather than a real assessment of the situation. Microsoft or Nintendo could do something better than the ps3 specs-wise right now, even more so in 2010 - there are now available faster cpu's, faster gpu's and RAM is cheaper. The only aspect where the ps3 is really future-proof is playing blue-rays: the console has the proper disc drive and firmware updates guarantee it'll stay on top of things as far as movie playing is concerned.

Note that none of the above means the ps3 can't be an excellent console and also that most of above applies to the 360 as well (as far as performance goes compared to current state of GPU/CPU technology). The truth of the situation is that consoles always and rapidly become obsolete tech because they don't even launch with cutting edge processors (since the cost would be prohibitive).

I hate to mention this, but you really need to doublecheck things before stating that MGS4 is almost at Crysis level. That's nuts - Crysis has more polygons, higher res textures, better lightning and shading and a ton more graphical prowess that MGS4 can't even match. Nevermind the fact current GPU's run Crysis at 1900x1200 while the ps3 renders MGS4 at 1280x720...

720 will be released in 2010 or 2011, when technologoy allows it to slaughter the PS3 in terms of graphics (the PS3 can't play many games natively in 1080p 60hz)

Sony and Ninty cannot be more than a year behind in releasing their consoles, or MS will have a huge lead

The only advantage the 360 has is that it got some grate games but in terms of sales well you are on the right site. So if they would have released it 2 years before, the Wii would have been on 20mil now. But if you are talking Sony then they did have an advantage.

XBox 720 in 2010. HD graphics on DVD? Developers are already feeling the crunch of size limits and having to resort to mass compression and with either no or just 20GB on %80 of 360s out there HDD installs don't make sense. Their last system flopped after just 4 years, so no suprises there.

Again, you don't have to spend anywhere NEAR $3000 to get awesome performance from a PC. (as in, less than 1/3rd that much)

This generation start in 2005 with 360. 5-6 years are OK for console life cycle. Expect next XBox around 2010-2011. Sony don't want to hurry - PS3 is on red, but they have no other choice. They need to follow max 1 year after. Wii is a different story. They gain a lot of money from Wii and can move the same year.

I just want to point out that full-on digital distribution is still a long ways off. Cable and DSL modems are running at about the highest capacity that technology can handle, and it'll be a while before that's completely replaced by something like high-grade fiber-optics. The point is, digital distribution of "8th generation size" games is simply illogical because no matter what, you'd be waiting ages for the games to slowly trickle in to your machine.

On top of which, if any console maker decided to go heavily focused on digital distribution, you can bet your ass you wouldn't be able to buy it at places like GameStop, EB Games, or even other places. Sony had toyed with the idea of making the PS3 locked so used software cannot be played on it. This was a threat they made over the toying Best Buy was doing (at the time) about possibly selling used video games.  As I recall, Sony's toying with this idea was met with harsh criticism from gamers and retailers alike.

Face facts, used games are big, big, big business and digital distribution would be disastrous to the gaming industry at this point. If a store can't make any money on a console with used media, they aren't going to bother with it at all. Don't think retail outlets carry much sway? Think again. Sega's foolhardy surprise early release of the Saturn pissed off some places, like then-still-relevant KB Toys, so much that ALL Sega merchandise started being pulled from the shelves. That's an impact Sega surely felt.


There's also the third party companies to consider. True, their profit margins go up a bit with digital distribution, but at the same time that means handing over near total control of your product to the console maker. That return to the Nintemperial-like days of the NES where Nintendo controlled the games, number of releases, number of cartridges, and everything else is not something 3rd party companies are going to want to be a part of.

The bottom line is the secondary market, which thrives better for video games than pretty much any other facet of the entertainment industries. There are typically more GameStop's, EB Games', and Game Crazy's than there are Half-Price Books stores or Cheapo's (used music, local to American midwest).

Has this gen even come close to reaching it's full potential? Games already take too long to develop (ie Killzone 2 and Too Human). I'm not hoping for wa new gen anytime soon.