I compared them because MikeB made a comparison of how a product, such as UMB, should be considered a success.  If he used the same method to determine the success of Blu-ray, then Blu-ray might never become the dominant format yet be considered a "success" because it was in millions of PS3s.  I don't accept that definition of success.

As far as the obstacles to the "success" of Blu-ray:

1. Cost - the movies and players are much more expensive at this time.  Currently, only the PS3 is dramatically affecting the installed base of "players" because it serves as a gaming platform and Blu-ray player.

2. Lack of dramatic improvement - I love HD movies, but I have to admit that an upscaled DVD still looks really nice... good enough that most consumers might not see a reason to adopt the new format.

3. Requires a TV upgrade for full experience - contrary to what many people seem to believe, the vast majority of TVs in American homes are still standard definition.  There are many people who watch TV in the den, the bedroom, etc., and most people aren't replacing those sets with HDTVs.  DVDs had the advantage of working on standard-definition TVs yet providing a visible boost in resolution over VHS tapes.  Blu-ray movies on standard-definition TVs offer no real advantage over DVD.

4. Portable DVD players - millions of portable DVD players have been sold, as well as DVD players in automobiles, buses, commercial airliners, etc.  Blu-ray movies will not work in these players.

5. Lack of compelling media advantage - most 2+ hour movies fit on DVDs, so the only advantage Blu-ray has is for the rare 3+ hour movies that would take 2 discs on DVD.  A minor advantage at best.  Also, even though Blu-ray discs are virtually unscratchable, DVDs are still fairly durable.  I have over 50 DVD movies and have yet to experience a failure on a single disc.  However, parents might find a reason to buy Blu-ray for their kids to use as children are able to scratch DVDs to the point they become unusable.

As you can see, wide-spread adoption of Blu-ray faces a number of significant obstacles.  If it were not for the PS3, Blu-ray would likely fade away in the future.  Only time will tell if the format will become dominant.

Never having to see this fucking sticker again was certainly one of them. Other than never needing to be rewound, just being able to skip from anywhere in the movie with a few presses of a button was also a gigantic step forward. Got a favorite scene you’d want to rewatch? Just go to scene select and click it. With a tape, you’d have to press stop , then fast-forward, wait a while, hit play, see if you’re near where you’re at, then back up/go further to where you need to be and hit play.

On DVD you can also set repeat markers and loop your certain scene to play endlessly, great for enjoying the best part of your favorite porno, or watching Samuel L. Jackson repeatedly get eaten by a shark during his big speech in Deep Blue Sea. Can’t do that on VHS without constantly mashing rewind and fast-forward.

DVD’s also could have numerous bonus features since it’s not a continues reel of tape. Deleted Scenes, Behind the Scenes, Commentaries, Games, Alternate Endings. Even the simple optional subtitles in different languages is a nice thing to have.

All that rewinding and fast-forwarding also tends to wear out video tapes and even wreck them over enough viewings. DVD’s, provided they’re handled with care, don’t seem to wear out from ordinary use.

DVD players in general seem more reliable as well. Less moving parts in both the player and media mean less things to go wrong. And as long you had your DVD player hooked up right, it should be fine, where as Tape decks you might have mess with the tracking depending on the tape.

DVD’s also occupied less space than VHS. That sounds trivial, but for us with limited shelf space it’s a great benefit. Also meant more shelf space in the retail market. And for people collecting series of movies or every episode in a TV series, it’s becomes a huge space saver. Case in point.

vs.

Because they took up less space, the players also were smaller, allowing them to be built into computers and video game consoles, giving you even more places to play them, sometimes with less techno junk taking up space under you’re TV.

DVD’s also had more storage space. Trumping the general two hour limit most VHS tapes had when it came to high quality video. Which mean longer movies or smaller mini-series could fit on a single disc as opposed to two tapes.

And DVD’s and DVD players eventually became CHEAPER than VHS. If they didn’t already have a huge enough set of advantages, they also became the more affordable format. It was a long time from DVD’s inception, but it did happen. It being alot cheaper on the manufacturing end also lowered the risk enough for where almost every obscure movie and TV show could be brought to a home video.

Other than price, which eventually became moot, there were only two major disadvantages to DVD from my perspective.  

One, you couldn’t record off them like VHS. Which was annoying for a long time, but now the proliferation of DVR recorders and video download and streaming services (both legal and illegal) have pretty much made that moot from the viewing perspective. DV tapes and the lot are the formats from the personal recording end of the spectrum though.

Two, easily scratched. But we all learned to just be careful and pick them up by the edge. =P

Blu ray is here to stay for the next 10-15 years, i dont think you'll get a better medium to distribute hd movies. Downloading services has no chance to become the main stream hd movie distributor because of the senior citizens(many dont know how to download) and the limited internet speeds. It would take at least take 10 years to improve the infra structure and hd movies will not become main stream before fiber is an option to everyone. HDD's are still to expensive and you'd still have to download the 50 gig movie.

A bigger storage disc format wouldnt do any good either. At least not until the resolution gets bigger than 1920×1080.

i believe blu ray will bever have the dominance of what dvd did, downloadable hd movies from the psn store and xbox live and apple etc are the way forward imo

Which Blu-ray movies require 50 GB of storage?

Regarding HDDs, you can by a 1 TB external drive at Best Buy for around $230.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8763894&st=external+hard+drive&lp=4&type=product&cp=5&id=1203815241551

You can buy an internal 1 TB drive for $200.  Those prices are going to continue to fall.

@BrainBoxLtd: Yeah, I remember waiting 5 minutes for VHS tapes to rewind... It was also a great experience to go back and forth to narrow the tape down to a scene I wanted my brother to see.

And yeah, I also remember the huge drawer full of tapes, where I could fit in many more hours of video nowadays. DVD was a huge upgrade over VHS.

 No country for old men

The place is limited you would have to buy a new one after a while. As for now you'd have to download the movie and that takes alot of time and many people prefers the movie on a disc

Agreed on the downloading part being an obstacle.  As for limited space, I'm guessing most Blu-ray movies consume 25 GB or less.  Assuming that size, you could fit approximately 40 movies on one drive.  That would be close to the size of my entire DVD collection, and to purchase that many movies on Blu-ray would cost approximately $1000 at current prices, so I'm not sure the cost of the HDD would be prohibitive.  And remember HDD prices will continue to fall over time.

the survey is for 1000 people, not exactly a huge sample.

As for the 50% who said they would never buy one, things change. If you would have polled me on January 2007 If I would ever buy a PSP, I would have said no. If you would have asked me during the Fall of 2005 if I would have purchased all 3 of the new consoles, I would have said no.

A poll like this isn't that telling

I, for one, will never go back to disc-based movies. All my movies are on a single external hdd as it's easier to carry on that way.