First off, Blu-Ray will only be a major force for PS3 sales as long as the PS3 remains a very competitive price Blu-Ray player ... If you want a Blu-Ray player and a videogame system as long as the PS3 is only (about) $100 more than either devices it will seem like a very affordable option. Within 12 to 24 months companies like Apex Digital will be looking to sell Blu-Ray players at (roughly) $100 or less because that is their market position, and unless the PS3 is $200 by then I doubt it will be selling (primarily) as a Blu-Ray player to anyone.

Beyond that the PS4 is obviously in development and there are probably plans surrounding releasing it in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 in order to cover the possible outcomes. This doesn't mean that Sony wants to release a console in 2010, but they do probably have a plan in case the PS3 sales fell to a level where it wouldn't survive much past 2010.

 

Whether you would like to admit it or not, Harrison's departure probably had far more to do with the PS3 falling dramatically short of expectations even with its improvement in 2008. It doesn't matter what culture you're in, a mistake on the scale of the PS3 typically results in key executives losing their jobs.

Loud_Hot_White_Box said: NJ5 said: Forget about the 10-year cycle, it's just a PR gimmick. Console lifecycles are decided by customers, not companies. Besides, even if the PS3 has a 10-year cycle, that doesn't mean the PS4 will come in 10 years. Look at how the PS2 is still selling well into PS3's lifecycle.     PS3 will have a10-year, profitable cycle.  PS4 will come well before 10 years pass.  The "10-year cycle" truism has ALWAYS been about the former, not the latter.

deluded fanboyism bullshit.

 

just because PS4 has entered developement does not mean sony has ditched the ten year plan, the cell proccessor entered developement in 01 if im not mistaken

SuperBabyMethod said: just because PS4 has entered developement does not mean sony has ditched the ten year plan, the cell proccessor entered developement in 01 if im not mistaken

And you beleive that pr bull.

 

Leetgeek said: *sigh* This is whats happening: Sometimes a technology can be superior but will still "Die" because it's sales do not pick up and/or the public in general will chose another format. This is what happened to Betamax. So a lot of people thought that PS3 was a lock to sell billions of consoles the day it was released. But it didn't. The system was too expensive ($600). Also it had some HARSH competition in the Wii which was not only an innovative and great idea on Nintendo's part but also three hundred AND FIFTY dollers less then PS3. Not to mention that PS3 was ALSO competing against the seemingly less expensive X-Box 360 which was already releasing it's second generation games including Gears of War. Think about it it was basically LAIR Vs. Gears of Wars and Twilight Princess. So in truth PS3 should have been dead in the watter but what happened? It did not die. It survived long enough to help Bluray crush HD-DVD, it survived long enough to bring the MGS4 bundle pack and it has survived long enough to outsell it's closest competitor the X-Box 360 for almost all of 2008 even with a higher price tag. The very things that made the PS3 too expensive in the beginning are now PS3's biggest advantages because as time goes on game producers will get more results out of bluray and the cell as the production costs of such technology plummets. This may be news for some of you but guess what: This is not 2006 anymore.

 

Surviving and dominating are 2 different things.  What hurts the PS3 in the long run is that it is not dominant enough to ensure a repeat of the PS2 longevity.  Developers will only go out of their way to support a console long after the newer version comes out if the old console is still selling well.  Being the "10 year" console that the PS2 is requires that domination.

So, you are right, it isn't 2006 and the PS3 domination still hasn't happened but Sony still likes to spout some of the same PR.

I give that post a 9.3.

Lots of media channels will exist in parallel in the midterm. Eventually it will most likely be all download but I doubt that this will happen during the lifecycle of the PS3 or even the PS4. CDs are still a much bigger market than music downloads and music is much more convenient for downloads. I am pretty sure that BluRay drives will be the more important distribution channel for HD movies than downloads in the next 10 years. But this doesn't mean that downloads are not important either. Its not a black or white question.

colonelstubbs said: Sony will not abandon the 10 year cycle. Especially after that phrase pretty much becoming their mantra

 

Yeah, they also said backward compatible for PS2 games in every PS3. Look where it's going now...

Garcian Smith said: Geldorn said:   As long as PS3 software sells, third party support won't drop. And since PS3 software sales have only been going up, I'm thinking you should rethink your idea that the only third party support that counts is exclusive games. Besides, stating that all those PS360 games where originally PS3 exclusive is not the same as proving they where. I could just as easilly say the reverse and we'd have no way of telling since most of those games where announced as multiplatform games to begin with.     It's not a matter of absolute sales, but instead relative sales. It doesn't matter how much software on the PS3 sells; so long as its competition is selling more, the third-party support will go to that competition. As for your second point, well, you need only a healthy dose of inference. We've already seen the trend in big-name games. Two-thirds of the PS3's "Big Three" exclusives list from 2007 (DMC4, MGS4, FFXIII) are now multiplatform. Suspiciously, most of the HD titles announced in the past year or so have been PS360 titles - and all of those titles will have been in development for at least a year. It's not too hard to infer that, once the Wii inevitably gains 50% marketshare before the end of this year, we'll see third-party support for both HD consoles take a sharp drop - not to zero, mind you, but to a much lower number than it's at now. Of course, that's not 100% proof, but really, we're already seeing the trend begin.

I beg to differ. As long as it's profitable to release PS3 games, they will be released. It's getting more profitable to sell games (because they are selling better now). If anything I expect to see more titles released for the PS3 from now on, multiplatform or not. Which, considering the known release list so far, seems to happening.

As to your 'healthy dose of inference', it sounds more like guesswork/wishful thinking to me. It's not by any means a certainty that the Wii will hit 50%. There is some merit to the idea, but it's not happened just yet. Secondly, the Wii having 50% market share need not convert directly into better sales for all types of games on the machine. So far, I have had bigger expectations of some of the big 3rd party titles for the Wii than they made happen. The machine almost outnumbers it's competitors put together, but it's biggest selling 3rd party games clearly underperform that level - they don't sell double.

Note that I'm not opposed to the Wii being succesful (that'd be crazy, I own one), but I do get the feeling here that some Wii supporters want to see the others crash and burn. Which is really rather unlikely, PS3/Xbox360 sales are up over last year so irrespective of the Wii's succes, these devices are also increasing their installed base at an increased pace.

they are working on the ps4 yes, as is nintendo on the wii2 and microsoft 720. but i cannot possibly see them completing the ps4 let alone think about shipping the ps4 until atleast 2015-2016...thats like 8 years of the ps3...but development of games would not offically end for another 2-4 years...kinda like the ps2

im also thinking if anything the ps4 is gonna be a ps3 just beefed up and maybe more casaul friendly accessories and what not. a cell proccessor with more power and maybe even fused graphics card so it would be like a cellgpu (kinda like the amd fusion or w/e they are working on, supposed to make it faster and more efficent) or something, more ram, better psn like more ps1 classics and probably ps2 classics, maybe even a xmb with more pc like cabablities like word pad and crap like that...but who knows really....we will have to wait and see like always...

markers said: they are working on the ps4 yes, as is nintendo on the wii2 and microsoft 720. but i cannot possibly see them completing the ps4 let alone think about shipping the ps4 until atleast 2015-2016...thats like 8 years of the ps3...but development of games would not offically end for another 2-4 years...kinda like the ps2 im also thinking if anything the ps4 is gonna be a ps3 just beefed up and maybe more casaul friendly accessories and what not. a cell proccessor with more power and maybe even fused graphics card so it would be like a cellgpu (kinda like the amd fusion or w/e they are working on, supposed to make it faster and more efficent) or something, more ram, better psn like more ps1 classics and probably ps2 classics, maybe even a xmb with more pc like cabablities like word pad and crap like that...but who knows really....we will have to wait and see like always...

 

So Sony is (effectively) going to be out of the market for 3 to 4 years before they decide to replace the PS3? Seriously, did people have to complete a course in blindly following Sony's PR before they were allowed to buy a PS3?

The truth that the only selling feature a console has after a new generation begins is the steady supply of new releases; consoles which are not dominant tend not to have that much support in the first place, and after the industry begins to shift towards the next generation they generally lose the little support they have. On top of this, its not like the PS3 is going to stay technically competitive with new consoles ... in 2011/2012 it will be (very) easy to release hardware that is 10 times as powerful as the PS3, Blu-Ray players will be as cheap as a DVD player is today, and the PS3's controller is already seen as outdated by many (if not most) gamers.