I don't think HD-DVD is necessarily going to win. Blu-ray has just as good a shot. I'm just calling him a liar for insisting HD-DVD is doomed to fail.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to things like Blockbuster and Target, rather than Disney.  Hence the word "market" and not "studio".

HD DVD has a harder time getting exclusive support from retailers because it isn't selling as well as Blu-Ray, which is why he has a hard time providing instances of retailers backing HD DVD.  At first he was admittedly too lazy to look, but later on when he did make an attempt at finding this information, the best he could come up with was the Total HD disc, and really, that's all there is, though it really was just a red herring on his part.

 The only instance of a retailer favoring HD DVD over Blu-Ray that I know of is K-mart.  Toshiba recently announced that K-mart would be carrying HD DVD standalone players exclusively this holiday season.  However, K-mart later denied such claims, stating, "There have been numerous statements in the media today, attributed to Toshiba, indicating exclusive support for the HD DVD format in Kmart stores. These statements are false."

I'm talking about news in general, which we know exists that can favor either blu-ray or HD-DVD. He just lied that those stories don't happen to HD-DVD.

BTW, that's what I'm calling him for, not for his stance, but for lying. 

BTW, most of his news seems to come from Europe, but even then I'm suspicious he just filters out news he doesn't want to post.

And here I thought Disney went to BR because of the copyright protection?

 They went BD to spite LordTheNightKnight.

Don't worry knight, eventually, you as well will will be praising the power of the BD to your friends as if you were a power user or something

Don't worry knight, eventually, you as well will will be praising the power of the BD to your friends as if you were a power user or something

knight, I hope that you're getting paid for your work

 Imo, Blu-Ray can't lose.  Either Blu-Ray will win, or there will be a stalemate, but Blu-Ray is here to stay.  It has a nice userbase so far, and as the ps3 continues to sell, that will only grow.  Also, as more ps3 owners start to upgrade to HDTVs, the percentage of ps3 owners that buy Blu-Ray discs will increase.  It's currently estimated that only 20-30% of NA ps3 owners buy Blu-Ray, which correlates with the estimated 33% of NA homes that have HDTVs.

This, combined with the exclusive suppport of Disney, Fox, Sony, and Lionsgate, and the fact that Blu-Ray standalone palyers will meet mass market pricing by the time the majority of NA owns an HDTV, means that Blu-Ray will never die in the US, though it may end up in a stalemate with HD DVD.  Then, when you factor in Blu-Ray's 96% marketshare in Japan, and the in-roads it has made into the pc storage market, you see that Blu-Ray will remain a force to be reckoned with globally.

Imo, it all boils down to Warner.  If Warner goes HD DVD exclusive in early '08, than HD DVD will gain a considerable asset, as Warner has released more movies in HD than any other studio to date.  This will allow HD DVD to gain parity with Blu-Ray in the US, and gain back some ground globally.  However, ultimately it will be a stalemate between the two formats.   It will be 4* Blu-Ray studios vs 3* HD DVD studios, and HD DVD's cheap players now vs the ps3 now and Blu-Ray's cheap players later.

However, if Warner goes Blu exclusive, then the war will essentially be over.  It will be 5 studios vs 2, and HD DVD would be unable to survive. HD DVD would have at best 28% of movies released on the format, and possibly not even that, since Steven Spielberg is keeping some of Universal's biggest titles from being released on HD DVD (Jurrasic Park, E.T.) and Spielberg's films (Indiana Jones, Saving Private Ryan) were specifically excluded from the Parmount/Dreamworks exclusivity deal.  If Indiana Jones comes out, it will be on both formats.  Actually, Spielberg has stated that he is "big supporter" of Blu-Ray, which is why Close Encounters of the 3rd Kind was just released on Blu-Ray, yet no Spielberg titles are planned for HD DVD.  This is not good, since many of Universal and Paramount's bigger titles are Spielberg films, so if those two studios were all HD DVD had left, the format would be ruined.  Who would buy a movie player that can play at most 28% of all movies?

Basically, Warner going HD leads to a stalemate, and Warner going Blu leads to mass adoption of one format, imo.  If Warner stays neutral, it will remain a two format market, though Blu-Ray will have a nice lead in sales overall.  I think Warner will ultimately go Blu exclusive as they've said multiple times that this war is stalling HDM adoption, and that they're "in a position to decide" this war.  The only way this war could end would be to go Blu exclusive.

*Disney, Fox, Lionsgate, and Sony.
**Universal, Paramount, and Warner.