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Forums - Microsoft - Next xbox? soon?

shams on 18 June 2008

2011 is just fine.

The problem with the XBOX - is they KILLED it off, the second the 360 came out.

Assuming they don't do this again - the 360 could be around to 2013...2014. That's many, many years away at the moment...

The Wii II should be out around 2010-2012, with the Wii supported for another 2-3 years after the Wii II hits.



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FaRmLaNd on 18 June 2008

And as people have pointed out microsoft were basically forced to stop production of the xbox. They now own all the designs I believe, so they wont be making that mistake again, so I believe they'll support it for a year or two after the nextbox is released. What the next xbox needs, is the build quality of tank. I need to be rock solid and rarely die, they've done well considering RROD this gen but I don't think they'll be able to pull it off again.



Just_Ben on 18 June 2008
rocketpig said:
steven787 said:
Snesboy said:
That's the stupidest controller I have ever seen. And I remember when the "Rev-mote" was first shown


It is a joke.

On topic: 5-6 years is plenty but I think it is a mistake. Graphics are good enough for consoles, they need to focus on recouping all their previous losses. Continue making great games for 360, release a new style with MUCH bigger hard drive and Wireless N with a 10/100/1000 port. Speed up Live. If they do a fully new console, it will fail.

Why stop now?

360 sells 120k plus a week... if they drop the price to 250 for the theoretical package above and throw-in some 360 classics (GoW, Halo3, whatever 3 year old game they want to pack in) in 2010 that will be 30 million in sales a week. Plus controller number 2 = 6 million. Games 1 million a week * 8 (figure they make $8 off of lisencing, a number I pulled out of my ass) = ~8 million

44 million every week in revenue * 56 (52 weeks in a year, modest double 4 weeks for holidays) =
2.5 Billion a year revenue, low estimate.

If they release in 2011 and no more huge blunders happen, the 360 will be seeing its fourth year of profit out of six.

That's plenty of time and in 3 1/2 years, those graphics are going to look awfully stale compared to PC hardware. It will be time for a hardware refresh with Blu-ray, uncompressed sound, 1080p, etc etc etc.

My guess is that Nintendo will be there in Time. It makes strategic sense. And no the Wii will not "die" and Nintendo will support it for quite some time ;)

 



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rocketpig on 18 June 2008
Just_Ben said:
rocketpig said:
steven787 said:
Snesboy said:
That's the stupidest controller I have ever seen. And I remember when the "Rev-mote" was first shown


It is a joke.

On topic: 5-6 years is plenty but I think it is a mistake. Graphics are good enough for consoles, they need to focus on recouping all their previous losses. Continue making great games for 360, release a new style with MUCH bigger hard drive and Wireless N with a 10/100/1000 port. Speed up Live. If they do a fully new console, it will fail.

Why stop now?

360 sells 120k plus a week... if they drop the price to 250 for the theoretical package above and throw-in some 360 classics (GoW, Halo3, whatever 3 year old game they want to pack in) in 2010 that will be 30 million in sales a week. Plus controller number 2 = 6 million. Games 1 million a week * 8 (figure they make $8 off of lisencing, a number I pulled out of my ass) = ~8 million

44 million every week in revenue * 56 (52 weeks in a year, modest double 4 weeks for holidays) =
2.5 Billion a year revenue, low estimate.

If they release in 2011 and no more huge blunders happen, the 360 will be seeing its fourth year of profit out of six.

That's plenty of time and in 3 1/2 years, those graphics are going to look awfully stale compared to PC hardware. It will be time for a hardware refresh with Blu-ray, uncompressed sound, 1080p, etc etc etc.

My guess is that Nintendo will be there in Time. It makes strategic sense. And no the Wii will not "die" and Nintendo will support it for quite some time ;)

 

Honestly, anyone who thinks the Wii is in this conversation is a damned fool.

The Wii created its own market and Nintendo won't be in any hurry to update it. Now it's up to Sony and MS to try to counteract Nintendo and fight for a solid second place.

Personally, I think Microsoft is in the driver's seat to run away with this. They hinder Sony, get into living rooms, possibly make money over the long run, and are set to launch first again.

Sure, the Wii is great but honestly, I think MS and Nintendo are in this together. MS is out to take over the living room, Nintendo is out to make money, they were both based a block from each other, and MS is actually putting games on the DS.

If MS turns a profit on the 360 , even if they finish third in the race, they won.

 




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Hawkeye on 18 June 2008
rocketpig said:
Just_Ben said:
rocketpig said:
steven787 said:
Snesboy said:
That's the stupidest controller I have ever seen. And I remember when the "Rev-mote" was first shown


It is a joke.

On topic: 5-6 years is plenty but I think it is a mistake. Graphics are good enough for consoles, they need to focus on recouping all their previous losses. Continue making great games for 360, release a new style with MUCH bigger hard drive and Wireless N with a 10/100/1000 port. Speed up Live. If they do a fully new console, it will fail.

Why stop now?

360 sells 120k plus a week... if they drop the price to 250 for the theoretical package above and throw-in some 360 classics (GoW, Halo3, whatever 3 year old game they want to pack in) in 2010 that will be 30 million in sales a week. Plus controller number 2 = 6 million. Games 1 million a week * 8 (figure they make $8 off of lisencing, a number I pulled out of my ass) = ~8 million

44 million every week in revenue * 56 (52 weeks in a year, modest double 4 weeks for holidays) =
2.5 Billion a year revenue, low estimate.

If they release in 2011 and no more huge blunders happen, the 360 will be seeing its fourth year of profit out of six.

That's plenty of time and in 3 1/2 years, those graphics are going to look awfully stale compared to PC hardware. It will be time for a hardware refresh with Blu-ray, uncompressed sound, 1080p, etc etc etc.

My guess is that Nintendo will be there in Time. It makes strategic sense. And no the Wii will not "die" and Nintendo will support it for quite some time ;)

 

Honestly, anyone who thinks the Wii is in this conversation is a damned fool.

The Wii created its own market and Nintendo won't be in any hurry to update it. Now it's up to Sony and MS to try to counteract Nintendo and fight for a solid second place.

Personally, I think Microsoft is in the driver's seat to run away with this. They hinder Sony, get into living rooms, possibly make money over the long run, and are set to launch first again.

Sure, the Wii is great but honestly, I think MS and Nintendo are in this together. MS is out to take over the living room, Nintendo is out to make money, they were both based a block from each other, and MS is actually putting games on the DS.

If MS turns a profit on the 360 , even if they finish third in the race, they won.

 

 

Sounds quite reasonable, but I am not convinced they are working hand in hand. Microsft has gotten defensive about the Wii's sucess. If Rare makes Viva Pinata for though I will be convinced that Micrsoft's goal #1 is to get Sony out of the gaming business, and that Micrsoft views Nintendo as a friend (or at least and enemy of an enemy)



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WiiStation360 on 18 June 2008

2011 sounds about right to me. But, please remember the lessons learned this console generation.

- Do not ignore hardware quality to get a console out first (360)
- Consumers do not want to pay $600 for a video game system (PS3)
- Graphics are not the most important thing (Wii)
- Previous generation systems still sell, do don't kill them off prematurely. (PS2)



rocketpig on 18 June 2008

They're not working hand in hand but the phrase "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" definitely applies here.

Simply put, MS isn't worried about Nintendo. They might copy them to gain a bit of market share but ultimately, that's not what they're going for. MS cares about Sony and wants to take the living room from them before they get a chance to settle themselves into it.

But, in typical MS fashion, they never bothered to pay attention to Apple, the one who has the best distribution system, the best prices, and the most convenient way of doing things with AppleTV.

Beware Apple over the next three years. They're going to completely fuck up the entire market. They may not win but they'll mix things up a lot.




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siriguillo on 18 June 2008
rocketpig said:
What a dipshit. If MS releases a new Xbox in 2011, the 360 would have enjoyed front billing for six years... The same lifespan as the PS2.

Stupid people piss me off.

 

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Well this has been the most expensive generation ever, i don’t want to spend $400 every 5 years , 300 maybe



NJ5 on 18 June 2008

but what about people that aren’t early adopters? There’s a lot of us out there that didn’t buy an Xbox 360 until 2006, or 2007, or even more of us out there that still haven’t purchased the console yet. What about us, Microsoft?

What the ...? I seriously hope this guy is joking, I don't want to believe that there are people this stupid out there.

 



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HappySqurriel on 18 June 2008
rocketpig said:

Honestly, anyone who thinks the Wii is in this conversation is a damned fool.

The Wii created its own market and Nintendo won't be in any hurry to update it. Now it's up to Sony and MS to try to counteract Nintendo and fight for a solid second place.

Personally, I think Microsoft is in the driver's seat to run away with this. They hinder Sony, get into living rooms, possibly make money over the long run, and are set to launch first again.

Sure, the Wii is great but honestly, I think MS and Nintendo are in this together. MS is out to take over the living room, Nintendo is out to make money, they were both based a block from each other, and MS is actually putting games on the DS.

If MS turns a profit on the 360 , even if they finish third in the race, they won.

 

I both agree and disagree ...

Nintendo is not going to be rushing to release a new system simply to gain access to hardware with more processing power, or to release an improved version of the Wiimote, without any presure from Sony or Microsoft. At the same time I think that Nintendo is working on their next consone under the assumption that it will be released in 2011 simply because of what Sony or Microsoft may do; basically, they're prepared in case Microsoft decides to release a powerful yet affordable system in 2010 which includes an enhanced Wiimote and improved (desireable) services.

This isn't to say that Nintendo's choice would be to release a new console in 2011 (I would think Christmas 2012 or 2013 would probably be their desire) but this is a market where your actions should be heavily based on the actions of your competition.