Well its McCain vs Obama come Nov.  I know of the strategies Barack needs to pull off to win, but I doubt he can get these essential areas without Clinton or Edwards' help--i.e. Midwest, South.  If you overlay the 2004 Bush vs Kerry results with his wins they match up, esp in the cities.  Oh well, enough analyzing for one night.  I will leave it for my next YR meeting.  Thoughts?

Obama's not going to win in the south -- and he doesn't have to. He can easily attain the 270 electoral votes without any southern states. There are ameliorating factors, though. Black people (a population with usually low voter turnout) are pretty excited about Obama and they are registering in record numbers. The races will be close in Virginia and Florida. John Edwards didn't really add anything to the Democratic ticket in 2004.. in fact, he couldn't even get a higher percentage for Democrats in his home state of North Carolina. His rural-populist message is really out of step with the times and he has stated that he does not want the vice presidency.

There is one southerner Obama could add as VP who would deliver Virginia and Florida -- Jim Webb. The man served as secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration, he served in Vietnam and has put the Republicans on the defensive --- as a freshman senator. I worked on his campaign and will be the first to say, he needs some "people-skills" work but he pulled it off.... defeating someone who was being groomed for the GOP presidential nomination -- in a red state no less. He would be the perfect person who has a background in defense and fits into Obama's overall vision of change.

Obama has little to worry about in the midwest. Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota all overwhelmingly chose him in the primaries and he's guaranteed to carry Illinois. There's work to be done in Ohio but I think he'll be able to pull it off there, too.  Indiana is a red state that he had no chance of carrying anyway.. The same thing for Nebraska, Kansas and the Dakotas. 

 

damkira said: Obama's not going to win in the south -- and he doesn't have to. He can easily attain the 270 electoral votes without any southern states. There are ameliorating factors, though. Black people (a population with usually low voter turnout) are pretty excited about Obama and they are registering in record numbers. The races will be close in Virginia and Florida. John Edwards didn't really add anything to the Democratic ticket in 2004.. in fact, he couldn't even get a higher percentage for Democrats in his home state of North Carolina. His rural-populist message is really out of step with the times and he has stated that he does not want the vice presidency. Ah, but what if McCain pulls out a VP Crist.  The Crist machine is one tough beast. There is one southerner Obama could add as VP who would deliver Virginia and Florida -- Jim Webb. The man served as secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration, he served in Vietnam and has put the Republicans on the defensive --- as a freshman senator. I worked on his campaign and will be the first to say, he needs some "people-skills" work but he pulled it off.... defeating someone who was being groomed for the GOP presidential nomination -- in a red state no less. He would be the perfect person who has a background in defense and fits into Obama's overall vision of change. He only pulled it off b/c of Allen's mucaca insult. Obama has little to worry about in the midwest. Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota all overwhelmingly chose him in the primaries and he's guaranteed to carry Illinois. There's work to be done in Ohio but I think he'll be able to pull it off there, too.  Indiana is a red state that he had no chance of carrying anyway.. The same thing for Nebraska, Kansas and the Dakotas.  Check again.  CNN just did a poll http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MTDEM page 4 saying that 16% of Montana Clinton voters would switch to McCain.  10% of SD Clinton supporters would vote for McCain.  http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#SDDEM page 4.  All we Republicans need to do is pick off the Blue Dog Dems for an advantage.   BTW, w/o Clinton, who still will not concede and has made references to assassination, he stands no chance in states with Blue Dog dem majorities.

 

OLD NEWS. BORING.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=28537&start=-0

USA needs change and thats what Obama is bringing. Mccain is a copy cat of george bush from what ive heard anywas, im not a big politician. and who wouldve thought that a black guy would win, imagine when he becomes president. so poroud of my race for once now.

The Ghost of RubangB said: OLD NEWS. BORING. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=28537&start=-0

No it is most certainly not.  Besides does he offer strategic Dem and GOP analysis like I do?  I welcome all opinions and that thread was like kids saying yeah, so what, ok.  My thread is politics 101 plain and simple w/o 2 word replies.

CaptainPrefrences said: USA needs change and thats what Obama is bringing. Mccain is a copy cat of george bush from what ive heard anywas, im not a big politician. and who wouldve thought that a black guy would win, imagine when he becomes president. so poroud of my race for once now.

No offense, but that is why I dislike the Democratic race this year.  Association by gender and race only.  Why don't you look up stuff about McCain?  I am a GOP member but I follow Rep, Dems, and Ind's equally.  McCain has sided with the Dems on many occasions and has disliked Bush's tactical approaches for some time.  I am not trying to convert you, just to let you know that there are more to politics than liking someone because they are black, white, Hispanic, etc.  It's issues.

Crist barely won Florida and he's not a terribly charismatic figure... which is what McCain sorely lacks compared to someone like Obama. I don't really see Crist adding much to the McCain ticket.. he has little more than a year of governing experience. McCain will probably choose someone who offsets his biggest liability in the minds of most people (his age.. I would say he has much larger liabilities than that, but that's a different post)  The way to do that is to pick Bobby Jindal.

Jim Webb was not leading in polls until well after George Allen's "macaca" comments. We went door to door throughout the Summer of '06 and talked to people throughout Virginia, most of whom were Republicans. People were very hesitant to support him but we won them over by emphsizing his committment to our military and his reputation for incorruptibility. It was the hardest fought campaign I've ever worked on and we would not have won had Jim Webb not been a strong candidate. He'll be a strong Vice President as well.

As I said before, Obama will not win South Dakota and Montana. South Dakota has never voted for a Democratic candidate in my lifetime.. I think Montana might have gone for Clinton in 1992 but its still an extremely red state. Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio.. These are the Midwestern states that matter.

 

OBAMA FTW!!!!!!!!!!!