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Forums - Gaming - My simple theory as to why the "analysts" are always rooting for Sony.

Deeds said:
I read that article in Malstrom's blog and I strongly disagree with his conclusion that the analysts are fanboy frauds.

The way I see it is that people forget that Sony is a large global comany that's indebted to banks, i.e. they owe major international banks money (probably billions). These "analysts" I believe work for companies that either have a relationship with these banks or is owned by them. Remember, Nintendo has little or no debt. These "analysts" are simply paid to back Sony.


Happily or unfortunately, depending on your outlook, real conspiracy is quite rare because it takes cunning, leadership and the ability to keep a secret. What is often mistaken for conspiracy is usually incompetence, misjudgment or plain mischance which are all more common things.

Analysts don't like to take chances so they stuck with the conventional wisdom that Sony would do well because they had done so in the past. It is also easier to recognize and evaluate the effect of technological refinement (HD graphics) then  than true innovation (motion control). The more brilliant analysts like Malstrom recognized early on that things were different. Others like Michael Pachter took longer. The real hacks haven't figured it out yet.



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Parokki said:
I think the reason for all the analysts rooting for Sony is that they don't really understand what makes the industy click. They don't know the reason Sony won last gen, or why Nintendo is winning this gen. When this gen started they assumed things would go as last gen, and now they have a hard time changing their minds and admitting they were wrong.

When you have no idea what's going happen, it's safest to assume things will proceed pretty much the same way as before.

So no fanboys, no conspiracy, just idiots.  



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

ANALysts just don't want to be told they're wrong. The reasons why they have been backing Sony has already been explained in excruciating detail here, so I'm just going to say, PS3, 2009=peak year. Not 2011 or 2012 with 25 million HW sold.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

Analysts are not exactly the cream of the crop. If they really understood the market so well, they would be managing money, not publishing useless reports.



largedarryl said:
Deeds said:
largedarryl said:
That theory is pretty complex, and I believe could be called illegal by many international courts.

I don't completely agree with Maelstorm's conclusion either, but I think his is more likely than yours, IMO.

Sony has billons in debt. Debt is money owed by borrowing or the selling of bonds. Who does Sony sell bonds to? Remember these bonds have an expiration date and have to be paid off in full plus interest. In order for Sony to pay off their obligations the need to generate revenue and profit. If the PS3 (which is a huge potential revenue generator) fails, Sony's bond holders, banks that provide credit to Sony and Sony itself will be in deep trouble. Analysts are paid to (a) prevent investors from dumping Sony's stock and (b) create an environment where the consumer has "hope" that their investment (PS3) wont go to waste.

Note that these analysts do not support Microsoft (Little or no debt) and Nintendo (Little or no debt) and release these charts after NPD data shows that the PS3 is in trouble.


 It's too bad a majority of Sony's operating income isn't through its Playstation branch.  You do know that Sony owns at least 1 record publisher, 1 movie publisher and another very lucritive electronics line (TVs).  Sony by no means depends on a profitable playstation division.   Once again, I also belive this conspiracy theory is illegal in many countries.

It might not depend on a profitable Playstation brand, but as of right now with the Playstation brand contributing over     $3 billion in losses since its launch, that is going to hurt any company's bottom line, NO MATTER WHAT!!  The OPs theory doesn't actually sound too far fetched to me, whether it has any validity or not.  You have to wonder why the analysts keep putting stock in Sony, despite the fact Sony has consistently been coming up short over the past few years.

 



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I think it is possible they are paying analysts that way to keep investors happy?*

* my half-baked theory



And that's the only thing I need is *this*. I don't need this or this. Just this PS4... And this gaming PC. - The PS4 and the Gaming PC and that's all I need... And this Xbox 360. - The PS4, the Gaming PC, and the Xbox 360, and that's all I need... And these PS3's. - The PS4, and these PS3's, and the Gaming PC, and the Xbox 360... And this Nintendo DS. - The PS4, this Xbox 360, and the Gaming PC, and the PS3's, and that's all *I* need. And that's *all* I need too. I don't need one other thing, not one... I need this. - The Gaming PC and PS4, and Xbox 360, and thePS3's . Well what are you looking at? What do you think I'm some kind of a jerk or something! - And this. That's all I need.

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first of all, the people who analyze game make money by getting people to talk. They always go with trends and dont take chances (kind of like fortune cookies and pyschics).

How quick we are all to forget all the negative predictions the PS3 got the first year of existence...how many analyst predicted its death?



^ Not as many as those who predicted Wii to finish last on the console race and the fad lasting no more than a year.



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Or the answer is, the analysts fear what they can't comprehend and hate what they fear



I think HappySqurriel is closest to the bulls-eye in this proverbial crapshoot... Let's face facts, most analysts are every bit as out of touch with their public as I have accused Sony of being...



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