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Sony has a choice of moves to do: cutting the price should enlarge its potential user base, but there is the still scarcely addressed japanese public desires to exploit too, releasing the right titles could do wonders, but quality is of the essence, so Sony won't risk rushing key titles release, I'd see more likely a price cut in the short term.

Yeah but Sales = longterm profit. So it gets harder again. They may have a strong desire to be profitable now but dominating the last generation gave them the ability to launch a completely new handheld system without loosing money in the progress. They will not to this trick this generation but a price at 300 would do a world of a difference.
Much depends on how expensive manufacturing the PS3 really is. You can get an Nvidia 7800GTX (which is more powerful than the RSX and has more RAM) for 89$ at retail now. At launch wholesale price for Sony was 129$. This christmas everything will be cheaper still.

The nice thing is that we will see who is right in 6 months.

It seems like most commentators keep calling on Sony to make a price cut but it doesn’t make financial sense to me.

If they do it to try and compete more aggressively with MS I think they would just drive each other back into red ink without making any real change in their relative positions or significant inroads against the Wii.

For Sony to have a price war with Nintendo makes about as much sense as Luxembourg declaring war on China and planning to win by attrition. They would sink into sea of red ink and if the sales started to affect Nintendo, they can certainly nullify it with a price cut of their own and still remain profitable. They make enough on first party software to probably be able to give the Wii away and not lose much money.

At this point Sony has sold enough units at a loss and they seem to be near enough market saturation that they have to sell all the rest at a decent profit to have a prayer of ever seeing an overall profit from the system. If the PS3 never earns any money, will there even be a PS4.

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Yes, they shouldn't rush price cuts, just do them as soon as they can without losing money, it should help to enlarge their user base and given the overwhelming domination by Wii, even managing to catch MS in a short time could be considered an achievement not to be snubbed.
And let's not forget that higher HW total sales mean higher games royalties, Sony must carefully balance profits and losses from HW with profits from royalties before deciding anything.
There are also other factors: were it true MS is starting concentrating on the crazy impossible mission to steal users from Wii, Sony would have a very tempting opportunity to lure more of the available hardcore gamers (*), the sole market both PS3 and XB360 are really well equipped to.

(*) they are by no means extinct, most probably as emergent countries get richer, they are even growing, simply Nintendo managed to conquer a potential market much larger than hardcore, but for this neither Sony nor MS can do anything, this generation.