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Forums - Gaming - Not One Step Back, But One Step Sideways - the Wii dilemma and its solution

rocketpig on 19 May 2008
konnichiwa said:
Bump for awesome editorial.

@Rocket pig if Wii sells 280 million and his competitors less than 50 million is dominating the market more than PS2 did....Not that I say it will happen but considering some of the predictions some have it could...

I don't see it happening and honestly, I don't see how anyone else can, either.

Right now, PS3+360 roughly equals Wii sales. In the PS2 days, it was selling multiple times over both the GC and Xbox combined. Right now, the Xbox and GC are ~50m while the PS2 is ~140m. Given the high price of the 360 and PS3 and the fact that both are selling higher year-over-year, it's almost impossible for the Wii to ever enjoy PS2-style domination. 

 




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dtewi on 19 May 2008

I think he did not mean marketshare rocketpig. He meant total sales.

OT: Amazing awe-insipiring analysis. AAA.



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Sugu yoko de waratteita

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PS360ForTheWin on 19 May 2008

wow, great original post, relly makes lots of good points. i would definetley agree that developers need to organise continuatuions of current ips on PS360 and make new ones for the Wii, as you said this would be win-win!



Kenny on 19 May 2008

rocketpig said:

 

<snip> 

The rest of your piece may have been great but I stopped reading at that point. You completely invalidated everything else in your editorial with that one simple sentence.

 </snip>


Although I agree that statement needs to be toned down, if you were so eager to discount everything else I've said that you would do so on the basis of that one half of a sentence, I submit that you were were never possible to persuade in the first place.



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rocketpig on 19 May 2008
Kenny said:

rocketpig said:

 

 

The rest of your piece may have been great but I stopped reading at that point. You completely invalidated everything else in your editorial with that one simple sentence.

 


Although I agree that statement needs to be toned down, if you were so eager to discount everything else I've said that you would do so on the basis of that one half of a sentence, I submit that you were were never possible to persuade in the first place.


No, I don't really disagree with your post. Third parties will have to adapt or over time, they will be fighting each other over a smaller and smaller market. Kind of a no-brainer, really. It's hard not to see it coming.

BTW, love your sig. That picture is so wrong yet so hilarious at the same time. 




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Erik Aston on 19 May 2008
Squilliam said:

 Ok heres some numbers. The top ten new IP franchises on the HD consoles (Non 1st party) (Mainly xbox btw) earned $160,000,000 in revenue at stores. For the Wii, non 1st party new IP games came to $39,000,000. I haven't even added the PC revenue either.


For what time period and in what markets? And maybe a source would be nice.



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sinha on 19 May 2008
Although it's clear that Nintendo is going to dominate on a level even the PS2 could only have dreamed of


lol



We don't provide the 'easy to program for' console that they [developers] want, because 'easy to program for' means that anybody will be able to take advantage of pretty much what the hardware can do, so the question is what do you do for the rest of the nine and half years? It's a learning process. - SCEI president Kaz Hirai

It's a virus where you buy it and you play it with your friends and they're like, "Oh my God that's so cool, I'm gonna go buy it." So you stop playing it after two months, but they buy it and they stop playing it after two months but they've showed it to someone else who then go out and buy it and so on. Everyone I know bought one and nobody turns it on. - Epic Games president Mike Capps

We have a real culture of thrift. The goal that I had in bringing a lot of the packaged goods folks into Activision about 10 years ago was to take all the fun out of making video games. - Activision CEO Bobby Kotick

 

sinha on 19 May 2008
"Although it's clear that Nintendo is going to dominate on a level even the PS2 could only have dreamed of...
...no one but the most delusional fanboys will believe there is any way the situation will suddenly and terminally worsen for Nintendo."

lol



We don't provide the 'easy to program for' console that they [developers] want, because 'easy to program for' means that anybody will be able to take advantage of pretty much what the hardware can do, so the question is what do you do for the rest of the nine and half years? It's a learning process. - SCEI president Kaz Hirai

It's a virus where you buy it and you play it with your friends and they're like, "Oh my God that's so cool, I'm gonna go buy it." So you stop playing it after two months, but they buy it and they stop playing it after two months but they've showed it to someone else who then go out and buy it and so on. Everyone I know bought one and nobody turns it on. - Epic Games president Mike Capps

We have a real culture of thrift. The goal that I had in bringing a lot of the packaged goods folks into Activision about 10 years ago was to take all the fun out of making video games. - Activision CEO Bobby Kotick

 

dib8rman on 19 May 2008

Id say if by the end of this yea being from last weeks date marking the 25 million Nintendo has the intention of hitting 40 million which will leave more than 10 million Wii's unaccounted for. My guess is this is the year they test the market to see how rapid the growth of the Wii can be, should Nintendo sell through and the millions/billions they're pouring into Wiifit be worth it in the long term.

"We make our games to sell our platform" - Iwata

Then potentially Wii could hit 50 million by April 2009. If what happens at E3 is the unveiling of this new tech that we already have in the Wii. (Old tech used in a new way.) Then Nintendo may be looking to not choose in the fork but go all directions.

If both of these things work out for them it would be double the current install base in a year >.>

That's what I know... but I wish I knew the Sony and Microsoft numbers off the top of my head.

The worst case scenario is that they still don't find the demand curve due to the overwhelming success they enough by being 2 steps ahead of Microsoft.

Some people are dumb though I mean I was dealing with a guy who was convinced Nintendo was the kiddy game department of Microsoft.

He wasn't joking nor do I believe he was a Fanboy, he legitimatly believed Nintendo = Microsoft and that Sony was it's own other thing.



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Squilliam on 20 May 2008
Erik Aston said:
Squilliam said:

 Ok heres some numbers. The top ten new IP franchises on the HD consoles (Non 1st party) (Mainly xbox btw) earned $160,000,000 in revenue at stores. For the Wii, non 1st party new IP games came to $39,000,000. I haven't even added the PC revenue either.


For what time period and in what markets? And maybe a source would be nice.


Ok, time period Current generation of consoles.

But at this point I think the list is irrelevant, I could post it if you want but I was rushed and I made a couple of mistakes, and I agree with the criticism that my methodology was flawed.

The only thing that it showed was that no real big efforts have been made yet on the Wii by third parties. 



Tease.