starcraft said: Squilliam said: Just a point to understand, from what I saw of some research a while ago. 3% of console owners own 2 consoles and 2% of console owners own all 3. So 95% of console owners own just one. So essentially 95% of those extra 100,000 customers were upgrading from either a PS2 or Xbox? Well given MikeB declared that 90% of all Xbox 360 owners are Xbox upgraders, many sequels to original Xbox titles arn't out until later this year, and the price is still very high, I think it's safe to say a huge percentage of those 100,000 people, not to mention loads of the other 160,000 people that bought the Xbox 360 last week, are PS2 upgraders.

lets to the twist!

dude! read! pleeeeaaasseeee!!!!! he said console owners not ps2 owners, not xbox owners not gc owners not ps3 owners not wii owners not x360 owners etc etc etc! just console owners! meaning, there is no indication as to what console the sample of this study had.  

starcraft said: Final-Fan said: I see starcraft's main argument as a complete failure of logic. The PS2 had the vast majority of last gen's sales, so most of the millions the 360 will sell beyond the original Xbox are taken from that audience. We agree on that much. (Most of the userbase growth is going to Nintendo, as the dominant/casual console, just like in all gens.) But what does that have to do with whether the 360 is getting (or going to get) its ass kicked by the PS3? If the 360 steals some of the PS2's audience away from the PS3, but the PS3 still inherits way more than that amount, the PS3 is still beating the 360. It reminds me of the common urge to "throw good money after bad" when sunk costs are involved. Obviously this is a very different situation but it reminds me of that. As for the final portion of the OP, I don't think the profitability of MS (or Sony) was in DMeisterJ's mind when he made that thread. The question was whether this was the end of the 360's hardware sales dominance in NA, and therefore a sign of things to come. I doubt that "beginning of the end" was meant to equate to "beginning to die" like so many people presumed. I saw it as merely what one person described as the "point of no return" -- a high water mark from which the 360 will recede and eventually fade away. (...While the PS3 still has a brighter future ahead, of course, in his analysis.) Maybe not. Maybe DMeisterJ meant the more dramatic interpretation after all. But either way he was talking about the future of 360 HW sales, not SW sales, unless he redacted parts of the OP. Dealing with the bolded parts in order. 1. This is because you seem to have missed the conclusion I am drawing. Read on. 2. If we assume that the Xbox 360 will die after it reaches Xbox numbers, then it is indeed past it's prime. However as I stated, the majority of the PS2's business was done at the $199 mark. As the Xbox 360 has demonstrated a capacity to pick up PS2 gamers, it is even more likely to continue to do so at lower price points. At no point did I suggest that the PS3 wouldn't outsell the Xbox 360 eventually, only that it wouldn't mean the death of the Xbox 360 and that the 'victory' would be inconsequential. 3. Actually, "good money after bad" would only apply if Microsoft WEREN'T making a profit now, which they are. 4. DMeisterJ DID edit his thread's OP. None of the bolded parts (red or black) were in there originally. I quoted one of his earlier posts to show that he never specified that his thread was about HW until he was called on software and profits.

2. I guess I did incorrectly argue "PS3 vs. 360" instead of "360?"; however, (A) I think that your OP had serious overtones of that itself from which I took my cue; and (B) I don't think you've adequately made your case that the 360 is going to avoid entering a period of decline by tapping the current PS2 userbase. The 360 is not the PS2 and price cuts didn't help the Gamecube or Xbox as much as you expect them to help the 360.

3. Did you not read the next sentence? Let me repeat it: "Obviously this is a very different situation but it reminds me of that." I was suggesting that it seemed to me, offhand, that there was a similar mentality involved, or at least an apparently similar one.

4. "Redact ... to obscure or remove (text) from a document ..." When I say that he did not "redact" any part of his OP, that means that he did not remove or alter any incriminating material talking about (for instance) SW sales. AFAIK the original portion of the OP is unaltered; his notes above it are merely a (large) annotation. If you look carefully at that OP, even without the big flashy warnings it's clear that, although he uses GTA (SW) as a milestone, the subject of his question is HW. The numbers he cites are HW. The numbers he talks about are HW. Why would it now follow that the numbers he is asking a question about would not be HW?

I said "if you look carefully", and it's painfully clear that very few took the time to do so with DMeisterJ's question on a very touchy subject -- exactly the kind of situation that calls for careful reading. Next time check your dictionary if you don't know the definition of a word.

Finally, as for the post you quoted, is he now not allowed to respond to other people who talk about SW? In fact, his initial response to the post in question talked about HW instead of SW, suggesting that DMeisterJ was concentrating his attention on HW discussion to the point that he didn't even notice that someone else had brought SW into it!

DMeisterJ's OP talked about HW. Not SW. SW got dragged into the fray by other people and DMeisterJ simply failed to jump on them like a rabid badger to keep the thread on topic ... until it became obvious that there were many people misinterpreting the OP, at which point he clarified, and re-clarified, and bolded and underlined etc. Shame on him?

also to note is that the ps3 and 360 sold neck and neck over last christmas so there is a chance that this coming christmas we could see similar sales, but dont expect the ps3 to sell like the wii did last christmas because the demand for it isnt as high because of different audiences

ils411 said: starcraft said: Squilliam said: Just a point to understand, from what I saw of some research a while ago. 3% of console owners own 2 consoles and 2% of console owners own all 3. So 95% of console owners own just one. So essentially 95% of those extra 100,000 customers were upgrading from either a PS2 or Xbox? Well given MikeB declared that 90% of all Xbox 360 owners are Xbox upgraders, many sequels to original Xbox titles arn't out until later this year, and the price is still very high, I think it's safe to say a huge percentage of those 100,000 people, not to mention loads of the other 160,000 people that bought the Xbox 360 last week, are PS2 upgraders.   lets to the twist! dude! read! pleeeeaaasseeee!!!!! he said console owners not ps2 owners, not xbox owners not gc owners not ps3 owners not wii owners not x360 owners etc etc etc! just console owners! meaning, there is no indication as to what console the sample of this study had.

Er....thats the point.  I was responding to people that said large numbers of PS2 owners might upgrade to BOTH the Xbox 360 and the PS3.

 

zero129 said: BCNR34 said: starcrafts alt? it's pretty clear that the 360 is at a stalemate for sales, there is clearly nothing they can do in Japan, in EU they cut the price and it did nothing, the US is the only market where the 360 can actually make some headway, and that would be accomplished by cutting the price, but that hasn't happened and may not happen for a while looking at their last financial report. and truth be told, the 360 may have some good games this year, but it has VERY few system sellers. the PS3 on the other hand, can cut the price in japan, make a slimline version, reintroduce BC, make new colors. In EU they can cut the price, bundle with EU centric games (like GT5:P), and in america they can do the same. all of these will provide huge boosts for the PS3, especially considering that is outselling the 360 RIGHT NOW despite being at a higher price point. thus, larger gains in sales will be seen from price cuts on the PS3 compared to the 360 (except maybe in the US) and contrary to the 360, the PS3 actually has system sellers this year. all of these reasons and more why the "well the difference is x now so it will take x weeks to catch up" is the worst argument in the history of the internet. Ok Im only going to reply to your comments that's in bold. 1st how can you say that the is nothing left that the 360 can do and then go on about "All" the things the PS3 can still do?, 2nd what makes you think MS doesn't plan on making a slimline 360??? it's almost 90% sure that they will and guess what they will be able to make a smaller 360 more sooner then Sony wil, as the hardware etc is more cheap in the 360 plus with how long its been around etc. So MS could for this year lower price in US (That will give a big boost of sales over there), Launch some new colours for EU bundle in some top games and along with all the great games coming this year that will boost sales this X-mas And keep MS in a nice spot (Yes the x360 is still selling in the EU) And then still For next year they can Launch a Slimline 360 for €150, launch lots of colours, bundle some games etc. and that will boost sales even more, so its just dumb to say the is nothing else MS can do.. 3rd how can you say the 360 has very few system sellers this year?. Gears 2, Banjo, Too Human, Tales of Vasprea (Spelling?) <--alone will shift units in Jpn), Fable 2 etc. And the list goes on so once again it's just foolish to say it has no system sellers this year.

there is just so much wrong with this post...

whats MS going to do in europe? cut the price again?

it doesn't matter if they make a slimline 360, it still won't sell in japan. and a slimline version of the 360 really wont make much a difference in EU and US, because those regions dont really care as much as the japanese about slim versions.

the point i was making is that PS3 has way more room to increase sales (which they do) and since they are already outselling the 360, it will make it that much more of an impact. let's be honest, we already know that making different stylish SKU's and colors for the 360 hasn't done anything in the past, so why would it do anything now?

the 360 is cheaper than the wii in EU right now, yet it still gets owned by the PS3 whose price is what, double? if not more than double?

and yes i already mentioned they can drop the price in the US, but thats about all they have left.

i never said the 360 has no system sellers, care to point out where i said that?

i said it has very few, which i think is true, the only confirmed 360 exclusive this year that will move ALOT of consoles is GeoW2. all those other games you listed aren't system sellers, but they will sell well as games.


i'll wager a bet that the only place the 360 will outsell the PS3 again is the US, and even that won't be for a while. and maybe for a week or two. probably during the release of GeoW2 or when they cut the price.

Final-Fan said: starcraft said: Dealing with the bolded parts in order. 1. This is because you seem to have missed the conclusion I am drawing. Read on. 2. If we assume that the Xbox 360 will die after it reaches Xbox numbers, then it is indeed past it's prime. However as I stated, the majority of the PS2's business was done at the $199 mark. As the Xbox 360 has demonstrated a capacity to pick up PS2 gamers, it is even more likely to continue to do so at lower price points. At no point did I suggest that the PS3 wouldn't outsell the Xbox 360 eventually, only that it wouldn't mean the death of the Xbox 360 and that the 'victory' would be inconsequential. 3. Actually, "good money after bad" would only apply if Microsoft WEREN'T making a profit now, which they are. 4. DMeisterJ DID edit his thread's OP. None of the bolded parts (red or black) were in there originally. I quoted one of his earlier posts to show that he never specified that his thread was about HW until he was called on software and profits. 2. I guess I did incorrectly argue "PS3 vs. 360" instead of "360?"; however, (A) I think that your OP had serious overtones of that itself from which I took my cue; and (B) I don't think you've adequately made your case that the 360 is going to avoid entering a period of decline by tapping the current PS2 userbase. The 360 is not the PS2 and price cuts didn't help the Gamecube or Xbox as much as I think you expect them to help the 360. 3. Did you not read the next sentence? Let me repeat it: "Obviously this is a very different situation but it reminds me of that." I was suggesting that there seemed to me, offhand, that there was a similar mentality involved, or at least an apparently similar one. 4. "Redact ... to obscure or remove (text) from a document prior to publication or release" When I say that he did not "redact" any part of his OP, that means that he did not remove any incriminating material talking about (for instance) SW sales. AFAIK the original portion of the OP is unaltered. If you look carefully at that OP, even without the big flashy warnings it's clear that, although he uses GTA (SW) as a milestone, the subject of his question is HW. The numbers he cites are HW. The numbers he talks about are HW. Why would it now follow that the numbers he is asking a question about would not be HW? I said "if you look carefully", and it's painfully clear that very few took the time to do so with DMeisterJ's question on a very touchy subject -- exactly the kind of situation that calls for careful reading. Next time check your dictionary if you don't know the definition of a word. Finally, as for the post you quoted, is he now not allowed to respond to other people who talk about SW? In fact, his initial response to the post in question talked about HW instead of SW, suggesting that DMeisterJ was concentrating his attention on HW discussion to the point that he didn't even notice that someone else had brought SW into it! DMeisterJ's OP talked about HW. Not SW. SW got dragged into the fray by other people and DMeisterJ simply failed to jump on them like a rabid badger to keep the thread on topic ... until it became obvious that there were many people misinterpreting the OP, at which point he clarified, and re-clarified, and bolded and underlined etc. Shame on him?

2.  I don't need to show that the Xbox 360 won't enter a decline because it will tap the PS2 userbase.  All I need to show to prove my point is that it can do it beyond the present, and it is.  It's sales are up year over year.  Unless your suggesting that will change next week?

4.  Of course he is allowed to respond to people that talk about software, am I not allowed to respond to his response?  I didn't say that all of his statements were established in the OP of his thread did I?

Read the third line of my OP:

 "But it culminated in DMeisterJ's thread"

 

starcraft said: ils411 said: starcraft said: Squilliam said: Just a point to understand, from what I saw of some research a while ago. 3% of console owners own 2 consoles and 2% of console owners own all 3. So 95% of console owners own just one. So essentially 95% of those extra 100,000 customers were upgrading from either a PS2 or Xbox? Well given MikeB declared that 90% of all Xbox 360 owners are Xbox upgraders, many sequels to original Xbox titles arn't out until later this year, and the price is still very high, I think it's safe to say a huge percentage of those 100,000 people, not to mention loads of the other 160,000 people that bought the Xbox 360 last week, are PS2 upgraders.   lets to the twist! dude! read! pleeeeaaasseeee!!!!! he said console owners not ps2 owners, not xbox owners not gc owners not ps3 owners not wii owners not x360 owners etc etc etc! just console owners! meaning, there is no indication as to what console the sample of this study had. Er....thats the point.  I was responding to people that said large numbers of PS2 owners might upgrade to BOTH the Xbox 360 and the PS3.

dude, your statment in bold, again, there is no indication that the 100k-160k are ps2 upgraders. they could or they couldnt so unless you have facts and figures, i say=baloney

people, stop argueing with this guy. you'll end up so dizzy from all the spinning that you'll lose anyway.

DOATS1 said: people, stop argueing with this guy. you'll end up so dizzy from all the spinning that you'll lose anyway.

 

dont forget the twisting

ils411 said: DOATS1 said: people, stop argueing with this guy. you'll end up so dizzy from all the spinning that you'll lose anyway.   dont forget the twisting

ah yes, how could i forget!