Grey Acumen said: |_emmiwinks said: Grey Acumen said: I've said it before, I'll say it again, the only way PS3 can have a REAL 10 year lifespan is if Microsoft drops out of the console wars. Otherwise the Xbox720 will be brought out and it'll be able to completely outclass everything the PS3 can do because it's had 5 years worth of advancements to choose from. |
You are completely wrong on every level. First off the XBOX720 would be as much as at least the 360 was on launch, so around 500 dollars while the PS3 will be far enough into its cycle to be easily at the 199-299 price point. (2-3 years from now) Lets be safe and say 300 dollars. So while MAYBE the 720 could do more then the PS3, it would cost almost twice as much, and the development costs would be astronomical for it again, while the same costs on the PS3 would be far, far lower.*1 Its library would be around 10 titles big, while the PS3 in 2-3 years will have hundreds of HD titles that would (as 3rd generation games at least) look better then anything on the new 720. (production values take a while to hit full potential).*1 Also while the 720 would not only be competeing with the PS3 at 300 dollars, it would be competeing with the 360 still, at a lower price point. Microsoft would effectively split their base with at least two technologically simular, far cheaper competitors on the market, one being themselves cannibalizing the new system.*1 Everything you just said would just lead to Sony destroying Microsoft and their new console. This is why I feel that Microsoft is actually in a damned if you do, damned if you dont situation. their console is not as powerful as the PS3, it doesnt have the disc storage it needs to continue to get Multiplat games (not for long at least) and it has the nasty habit of dying. So they are of course going to want to release the next console as soon as possible. *2 However the PS3 is holding all the cards, if Sony is serious that the PS3 will be support for at the min 10 years, the XBOX360 has to stay on the market for at least 8 to 9 years to avoid dropping a high priced, high risk console into the market to compete against the PS3 and the 360 and the Wii all at the same time and all at much lower cost points with better installed libraries But at that point the 360's hardware would have been maxed out years earlier showing little progress against what Im sure most reasonable people can agree is just a more powerful/future forward system.*2 See the catch? Caught between a rock and a hard place. This is why I feel the 360 might actually break Microsofts console divisions back. Maybe.*3 |
*1 - All of this assumes that the PS3 will unlock some godly power heretofore unrecognized by gamers and developers alike. While I realize that as developers better understand the PS3 they'll be able to do more, you greatly overestimate just how much that more is. You're also using the PS3 launch to try to predict the difficulties the 720 would have at launch, when what you really should be using is the 360 as your method to predict. The Xbox didn't kill 360 sales, so I don't see why the 360 sales would kill the 720 sales. And what's with your claim that the 720 would only have access to 10 titles? 360 had at least basic backwards compatibility, it was only the PS3 that cut off BC after launch, effectively reducing it's game list from hundreds to tens. Within just one year, Microsoft was able to get ahold of numerous exclusives for the 360, yet you believe there's no way for Microsoft to do this when they have FIVE years to acquire exclusives for the 720? On top of this, you also seem to assume that the 720 is going to have a period where developers have to learn the new system like they had to do with the PS3, except the 720 has the option of just pulling straigth from teh 360 adn making it more powerful, or they could even potentially implement something similar to the Cell, but either way, developers would be able to pull from past experience on the PS3 and 360 to greatly reduce the time it would take to get up to speed on the new console. *2 - okay, I can see teh damned if they don't, I'm still waiting for the damned if they do part. *3 - Sorry, I just don't see it. Microsoft is trapped between a rock(leaving the 360 out on the market) and a place that they've already been and had turned out just fine for them before. |
@1 - According to Naughty Dog, which are for all intents and purposes a first party developer for Sony, when they made Uncharted, which looked as good, if not better then most games on the 360, they were only use 25-30% of the systems power. To me this says there is plenty of untapped power in the system. Also just look at 2nd or 3rd year PS2 games and then compair them to lets say... God of War 2. Theres alot of potential power to be pulled from a system when people get used to making games for it. Its a mater of streamlining your coding and building Rendering tools and Engines that pull more and more from the system using less and less of its power. For example, a 1940s V8 compaired to a 2008 V8, more power, more torque, more reliablity and better gas mileage with more room to expand. When GTA III came out, it maxed out the PS2 on every front, but Rockstar perfected their tools, and GTA San Andreas was bigger, badder and better looking. (as another example)
Im not using the PS3's launch for anything, every new system that comes out is far more expensive then it will be 3 years or more into its life cycle. The XBOX was 300+ dollars, the PS2 was 300+ dollars, the 360 was 450+ and so on. All these consoles are now selling for hundred/s less then when they released. But on that note, MS's next console will be as expensive, if not more expensive (due to the power under the hood) as the 360 when launched, and when you go to a store, and see a PS3 for 299.99 and a XBOX720 for 499.99, which one do you think will be first on consumers minds to pick up? For an example of this, just look at the Wii. 249.99 vs 399.99 and 499.99.
My claim that the 720 would only have 10 titles at launch is perfectly true. There will not be more then 20, and not less then 10 "720" titles on the market, that is games made for that system, that a developer will make money on FOR that system. To say it will have BC with 360 is fool hardy, when the 360 will still be ON shelves. Why buy a 500 dollar system for 10 titles that use the tech (but would hardly look better then the 2nd and 3rd gen games on the compairable 360 and Ps3, which is key and why this differs from the PS2 BC on the PS3) and has BC for 360 games, when you can buy a 200 dollar 360 and play all those hundreds of games and just wait for the 720 to drop in price a couple of years on?
Every new system has a period of greatly increased production costs. Beleive it or not even the 360 had this period, and is still having it. Sure the cost isnt as astronomical as the PS3 was in its beginning, but its far higher then it will be 3 years from now. Engines need to be made that utilize power, Rendering tools need to be coded for that use the new GPU and just the CPU's design will be far different. All these things cost alot of money, and with (at that time) the PS3 (with all the tools already made and in place) and the 360 (same deal) on the market, developers will have the same problem commiting that they have had with the PS3.
@2 - The damned if they do part is clearly (I think) explained in my above post. If they release the 720 half way through the PS3's life cycle they will be up against a technologically simular (Or if not, then Developement costs would go even higher) machine for probably half the cost of the 720 and against their own system (the 360) which would still be getting ports and multiplats from/with the PS3 and against the Wii.
@3 - Im not sure what you mean, the rock is leaving a machine on the market for almost 10 years that does not have the power or future foward tech built in to sustain that time on market and compete, or to put a new machine on the market and compete with two systems that are going to (for at least the first couple years of its lifespan) look as well and run as well as it will and cost half as much, have a far larger install base and be a very comfortable developement space for developers.
Also the idea of them releaseing a redesign is fine, and should be done, but they cant radically change anything in the machine, like add Blu-Ray (for games, movies would be fine) or up its graphical power or procssing power because then their user base would become cleanly split. When GTA V comes out you dont want to see that it only plays on the PS3 and the XBOX360 v2 and have your poor original XBOX360 be left out because you dont have the new 360.
I own all three current consoles and a great gaming rig, now thats out of the way.

This space Reserved for the Nuggets of Wisdom dropped by Bladeforce:
"Why post something like this when all it will get is PS3 owners blinded to reality replying? BOTH THE PS3 AND BLUE-RAY WILL NOT LAST 3 YEARS! TECHNOLOGY CHANGED TOO FAST!"
"is it Wii FIt that has sold as many as PS3's sold? Thats a LOL Look at the total sales of software is it just me that sees Nintendo titles hitting 10m+ and you say they arent making a difference? Another LOL!"
"Hell, with all the negative hype Sony spin, people just aren't interested cost is too high and to get the true HD experience (1080p, 7.1 surround) you will need a $1000+ system. THAT IS GOING TO DO IT IN A RECESSION! PS4 will not happen"