In Japan it will never even sell 1 million lifetime, even though it could sell over 500k first week it really won't have any legs at all.

In America it will likely have better legs than Japan, but also a pretty big first week compared to old titles (perhaps 700k?)

In Europe I have no idea, I would guess higher than America in total sales (say America X 1.3) but first week will be smaller.

So in total the first week sales will not reach 2 million. and will be more like 1500-1600k, which will probably be only half of what the PS3 version of GTAIV will have made. (once Europe and Japan numbers are added)

Lifetime world totals will probably be similar to past games, maybe a bit more, so 4-5 million.

MGS4 will no doubt be alot less than GTA4.

MGS4 just doesn't have that great of a raw appeal that GTA has, it's a niche market where as GTA4 is mainstream (heck I think GTA3 was responsible for a lot of that mainstream market to begin with).

It will sell very good because is an AAA title, but it is very difficult to overpass GTAIV...

GTA IV will sell more software than MGS4. Grand Theft Auto is much more popular than MGS.

No way...not a chance.

It will sell great, and I'm really looking forward to it, but it won't be able to sell near as much as GTAIV.  GTAIV is the king of sales and attach rate for this generation.

I expect MGS4 to sell about half of what GTAIV sells on the ps3.  (Which is still great--that would be around 650,000 opening week in NA).

However, I think it will sell as much or more hardware as GTAIV since it is exclusive to the ps3 and comes bundled.

OKay. So Metal Gear 3 sold 3.75 million units total on a platform install base of like like 75-85 million at the time?

And MGS4 is going to sell how many on an install base of 12 million?


Some of you are out of your freaking minds on your predictions.

No way in hell MGS4 moves more software on the PS# than GTA IV. It's got a snowballs chance of surviving while being thrown into a volcano.

Or in plain english, NO CHANCE.  I mean I know we live in the information age and there's a lot coming at you at all times, but have you people thinking this will sell more than GTA IV been paying attenion lately.  GTA IV has been a monster, EVERYWHERE, EVERY SITE, it has reached ICONIC status.  Metal Gear Solid while a great franchise appeals to "niche" cult type gamers.  The people that get into that game are already vested in it.  Sure it'll turn new people onto the game and series. But GTA IV sold like 5million + IN A WEEK. You don't just do that unless you're on another level, and I'm sorry to break it to you all the bundles, hell even super hype is not going to help MGS4 sell more than GTA IV, not now, not lifetime, not EVER. Anyone that believes this I will make a monetary bet straight up!

I mean look at the midnight release for GTA IV, MGS4 may not have that many people supporting the game for the first couple weeks.  I say after the first month MGS4 has 3 million sales World Wide tops.  I could be wrong give or take a million or two.  But I can't see how any sane person can say that MGS4 LIFETIME numbers will beat GTA IV LIFETIME numbers.  Maddness.

And MGS4 DEFINITLY WON'T HELP THE PS3 BEAT THE WII IN SALES upon it's release nope, nope and nope.

That being said it'll sell though, I'm actually going to borrow my boys PS3 when it drops and give him my 360 for a week or so.

I'll make this prediction: It will sell better worldwide opening week (or even month) but in lifetime sales, GTA IV will definitely outsell it. @Fastyxx: Higher userbase, lower attach rate. MGS 4 will attach much better than MGS 3, plus first MGS of the gen, etc.

I agree.  There's no way in hell that MGS 4 will sell as many units as GTA 4 for the PS3.  GTA 4 has a very casual appeal.

If Sony wants to pass 360 in sales soon, then they should sell this bundled PS3 for $399. not many will pass on that.

Still, I think MGS4 has a chance to beat GTA4 for PS3.
Is the game bundled in OTHERS and in Japan as well?

I never got into GTA4, but enjoyed MGS games and MGS4 has better casual appeal.