the PS3 is only up by maybe 50K a month(on the 360), so $600K / year...... Sooooooooo 4 years from now, if things stay constant. MS would have to do something stupid to loose. By then wii will probably have new systems and won't really care. Must remember, just by looking at the Advertizment and Bundles, MS is fighting for their lives. Sony in their stupid wisdom doesn't seem to do anything. No Advertisment, no bundles.

It's funny the way people often bring up how shocking the effects of the slim were on PS3 sales, when you look at how PS3 fans expected things to turn out even as late in the gen as 2008.

the guys with Q1-Q3 2011 will probably be the winners my money is on fastyxx or stranne.

I'm still betting on the "Never" guys winning.

You are not that good at maths ?

50k A WEEK per month its 200k per year its 2.4 Million. But  like alwys peole forget that 50% of the sales are made between october-december.

Xbox360 peak year 2008: 10.8 million.

Xbox 360 2009 10.2 Million.

PS3 2009 12.7  Million.

Xbox is DOWN even more this year it would sell maybe 9-9.5 Million if the trend continous.

PS3 would sell 14.5-15 Million IF the trend continous

Lets say Natal is a huge huge success and sells 2 Million additional 360 consoles after its launch (X360 would be almost on wii levels).

Lets say 11 Mio for 360 higher then its highest and the trend clearly shows down thats optimistic.

PS3 lets say arc is medioce succesful and sells not more consoles and ,lets say PS3 stays flat in the last months GT5 and so on make sure PS3 sells like last year (even though trend shows up.) Lets say just 14,5 Million for PS3 which is absolutely possible and  not unlikely. gap would be down to 3 Million if we take your prediciton gap would be down to 3.6 Million. It could very well be that the gap will be way smaller. Because unit 360 sold less then last year has to be sold more after natal launch even to stay flat it needs a record breaking christmas. 

PS3s future looks bright at the moment, I dont think there are many peole which doubt that.

Ofcourse natal Slim 360 and pricecut can turn all around. But also, Arc/Pricecut/Gt5. Everything can happen. But it needs a whole lot of effort and 360 has to be better then ever before. Probably nothing will happen because all actions from Sony or MS will counter each other. That means 2011 will PS3  outsell 360. Even with MS gaining ground it would happen.

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Ofcouse a possiblity.  But natal alone wont do that for sure. It takes more than what we know currently abou MS plans. I see the only chance for MS is a Slim 360 and Pricecut 229 Elite and 149 Arcade plus reliable systems plus Sony not having a pricecut could make it happen.

I think pretty much everything you said has a high possibility of happening.  IMO,  Sony won't cut their price this year after a drastic $100 cut last year, MS will cut this year since they haven't since 2008, Natal will help, as well as Halo and a possible Slim 360 which rumors are starting to mount up on.

ROFL, oh god I got a laugh ..

Update!!