5:56, and that :56 isn't going to be eaten up as fast as it has been because after 2 more weeks sales are really going to drop hard. Even if it outsold the 360 by 100k a week (I'll tell you why that won't happen in a second) it's still mathmatically impossible to happen before Natal.

It's all very well making a list of games, but I can make one with the 360 too ... FFXIII, Reach, Fable, Splinter Cell, Mass Effect 2, Alan Wake. Doesn't matter, the only potential system seller at this stage is GT5. Both consoles have great librarys this year that will sell them.

In Japan, sales for the PS3 could easily hit <15k again, making it a very slim factor in it's weekly win. Americans will be a draw, or a slight lead for either. So you're expecting massive things for Others. Pretty much for it to sell 100k a week in Others and for the 360 to sell 10k. Not gonna happen.

Just like we saw with the 360 and PS3 last year, the average gap will probably be around 50k.

It's also very likely Microsoft will attack VERY hard in september. Halo Recch + Natal + Price cut + possible redesign + Masssive advertising campaign.

1) The gap is already somewhere around 5.3-5.4 by the end of January 2nd 2010.
Look at PS3/360 sales since PS3 pricecut, http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=40041&end=40174
x360 was close to ps3 only during 99$ walmart deal, MW2 bundle release and ban wave.

Now, last year:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39810&end=39936
ps3 and x360 sales were close, even though PS3 cost 100$ more.
This year main PS3 and 360 models cost same, PS3 will be above x360, unless Microsoft do something.

2) FFXIII has more appeal to PS3/PS2 owners, even preorders in NA are beter for PS3 version.
Reach, Fable are coming around Natal release.

Splinter Cell, Mass Effect 2 - those were never big system sellers.
And Alan Wake, is hard to say.
Anyway MAG, Heavy Rain, God of War 3 will compensate those HW sales.

But Gran Turismo 5 is something that is bigger than Halo and is coming in first part of 2010. x360 has nothing to counter this. GT5 will move many, many PS3 hardware units. I mean, really a lot. This game alone, i think, will decrease gap by 1 mln., not in 1 week, probably in 2-3 months.

3) Have you seen what games are coming in Japan on PS3 during 2010? 15k, is this a joke?

1 Gran Turismo 5
2 Yakuza 4
3 Star Ocean 4
4 Metal Gear Solid: Rising
5 White Knight Chronicles 2
6 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011
7 Final Fantasy XIV
8 The Last Guardian
9 End of Eternity
10 Lost Planet 2
11 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2010
12 BioHazard 5: Alternative Edition
13 Front Mission Evolved
14 Nier
15 Super Street Fighter IV

These are known games for today, which are most likely to sell over 100k in 2010.
There will be also some new games and some, that i didn`t mention like Final Fantasy XIII Versus, Heavy Rain, MAG, GoW3, Naruto:UNS2, AGENT new Gundam/DW and other.

STarting to wonder if it's worth replying, please make plausible arguments and don't throw out hypocritical statements if you want me to reply.

1. - Yes I'm aware of the gap the PS3 has erased, the 360 did similar things with it's price drop. You can say MW2, the ban wave ect helped as much as you like. 360 is STILL selling more than PS3 in america as we speak.

2. FFXIII still won't cause any sort of HW bump for either consoles higher than 10k. Also like I said, all those games will contribuit to HW sales over the long run, You can't say SC, ME ect will do nothing but Heavy Rain will ...

3. Yeah GT5 has the potential to be massive, it's not bigger than Halo though.

4. "Have you seen what games are coming in Japan on PS3 during 2010? 15k, is this a joke?

1 Gran Turismo 5
2 Yakuza 4 (already out)
3 Star Ocean 4 (TOV didn't do much of a bump for PS3, neither will this)
4 Metal Gear Solid: Rising (HA you talk about Reach and Fable coming late, this is unlikely to even get a 2010 release, also it's multiplat, also there has already been a MGS ont he PS3)
5 White Knight Chronicles 2
6 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011
7 Final Fantasy XIV (again, when is it coming out?)
8 The Last Guardian (again, 2010 at the latest)
9 End of Eternity (multiplat, hardly going to cause a HW bump)
10 Lost Planet 2
11 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2010
12 BioHazard 5: Alternative Edition
13 Front Mission Evolved
14 Nier

the rest are nothing big whatsoever, go take a look at last years HW sales. I wouldn't be the least surprised if they're all below 20k again for the majority of the year.

You entire argument is see through.

basically you think all PS3 games are MASSIVE and will cause HW bumps, but the 360 games are going to do nothing.
15 Super Street Fighter IV"

1. The question is, for how long and by how much?

2. On FFXIII, we shall see. On SC, ME, AW as i said, these sales will be compensated by HR, GoW3, MAG.

3. Which Halo game sold 15 mln.? So far, Gran Turismo is bigger. But again, we shall see.

4. Since PS3 pricecut in Japan, PS3 hasn`t dropped below 25k even during weeks with no new releases. Why do you expect PS3 to go below 15k, when it is getting a lot of new games in 2010?
Gran Turismo 5 alone will hold PS3 above 30k for a long, long time.
But before GT5 release, there will be around 5-7 games, which are going to sell over 100k on PS3 in Japan.

Which games?
All i said, that GT5 will be MASSIVE. Other games will help PS3 to have 100k advantage over x360 on average every week.

1. wot?

2. I agree.

3. Just because yesteryears GT's outsold yesteryears Halo's doesn't mean it's a bigger franchise. Which Uncharted game has sold as much as 4.94 (Tomb Raider)? Halo and GT are about on Par. Halo 3 has outsold nearly all but 1 GT game and for GT5 to outsell Halo 3 it's going to need to be bigger than GT, GT4 and GT2. It's unlikely it'll break 12 + million. So if (when) Halo 3 outsells all Gt's this gen, how can you say Gt is a bigger franchise? Because it has a massive following in Europe, and they all buy a console for it? Yeah same goes for Halo in America. This argument has been done to death, I'll just say they are on an even keel.

4. Sales will always remain high for a while after a price cut, this price cut lead into the christma season. You can't honestly say you have seen a snippet of what sales will be like come the dry summer months can you?  MGS4 PS3 HW was 77k in Japan. 2 Weeks later it went back down to <20k. A game is very lucky to have legs in Japan. if GT has no legs there (it's V likely) how do you expect it to keep a sustained HW bump?

Resistance sold 100k+ in Japan, didn't cause any sort of HW bump. 100k is pretty normal for a half decent game in Japan for the PS3.

1. I think, very soon PS3 will be selling more or same as x360 every week in NA.
There are some 120Gb model shortages in NA, but again, we shall see by the end of January how things will go on.

2. Ok.

3. I think, Uncharted 2 will sell around first Gears of War LTD sales.
"NeoMatrix posted 19/12/2009, 02:27
4 mln. is possible and in 2010.
2.5 mln. by the end of 2009.

For anyone doubting about 4 mln. in 2010:
First Uncharted sold 750k in 2007 and almost 1.5 mln. in 2008.
And Uncharted 2 is much better game."

Anyway, which game is bigger, we will decide after 1 year of GT5 sales. But i my opinion, GT is bigger. But even, if it as big as Halo, like you say, that is still enough to move A LOT of hardware.

4. PS3 cost 40.000 yen by that time, now it cost 30.000 yen. It`s a mass market price.
Price was a problem back then, now it isn`t.
Anyway, very soon you will see, that PS3 will be selling much better, than you expect. I think, PS3 will outsell x360 by around 1.5-2 mln. in Japan before Natal release.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 11th Jan 2009 to 31st Oct 2009:

Bookmark this thread and we'll come back to it

I see the mid-2011 spot is still open, put me down for that pls. I think Natal and some good exclusives will save the 360 for a while, so the gap won't be closed by the end of the year.

Argh, I didn't notice how old this thread is. Ah well, I still stick to my prediction ^^^

Then we could stop talking about console wars 1 or 2 years ago since it's been sure for a while that multiplats would always be on both HD twins.

Losing a gen is losing a gen. If PS3 sells more this gen than the 360, PS3 wins and so does Sony. And MS loses. Facts.

Nobody cares if it happens in 2010 or in 2012. Stupid spin is stupid.